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Old 02-18-2007, 11:37 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Trends in NHL?

Have a couple of interesting scenarios to pass along to you. I am not a big believer in trends as I prefer to handicap from a coaching and scouting position. So I will just pass this on for your knowledge. Statistics are funny things and when you handicap by trends you are often very disappointed. A good example would be last week's USC - Arizona basketball game. USC had gone about 21 straight years without winning in Arizona. That is a pretty strong trend - yet they bucked the trend and won. We see 85-95% trends bite the dust almost every day. That is why I try to use the scouting and coaching standpoint because trends are giving so much importance.

There are two trends in the NHL today that are pretty strong. Minnesota (-105) fits a trend that is 24-7 (77.4). It also hit the only previous time this came up this season.
Montreal is another with a trend advantage. Their particular situation hits at 70% and is 2-0 this year.

The whole argument over trends is an interesting one. Certainly the computer gurus of our time have made some big inroads into sports wagering using this concept. I will comment on this is future posts.
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