Playoff Picks

[Raji]

Nashville Predators (8) vs. Detroit Red Wings (1)

Series price: Nashville +440, Detroit -480

Season series: Red Wings 5-3 (two wins came in OT or shootout)



When you look on paper, Wings fans are saying “see you in the second round.” Unfortunately, Wings fans should know better than anyone that games aren’t played on paper.



The Wings won the President’s Trophy as the NHL’s best team this season and everywhere you look in the stats, they rank in the top five. That includes scoring (3), goals against (1), power play (3), and ATS (against the spread) winnings (3).



The Wings have 10 players with at least 30 points this year led by Pavel Datsyuk (98 points) and they roll four strong lines at you all night. The blueline is anchored by possibly the best in the game, Niklas Lidstrom, and the recent pickup of Brad Stuart at the trade deadline won’t hurt matters once he returns from a hand injury.



But this Nashville team is dangerous. They have strong goaltending for one. Dan Ellis and Chris Mason may have limited playoff experience, but Ellis led the league in save percentage this season (.924) and he finished third in shutouts with six.



Another reason to worry about the Preds is their physical play. These guys love to hit. They don’t complicate matters on offense and they just throw the puck into the corner and pound you until it squirts out.



The third reason they’re dangerous is they are the No. 2 penalty killing team in the league. If they can limit Detroit’s production on the power play – and Detroit will get its power plays – they have a chance.



The X-factor in this series is Detroit’s injuries. Stuart, Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby are all banged up and the team recently lost a hugely improved Thomas Kopecky for the season.



Key handicapping factor: Detroit is 1-7 on the puckline this season on three or more days of rest. The first game goes in Detroit on Thursday, four days after their last game of the season.



Pick: Red Wings in six games



Calgary Flames (7) vs. San Jose Sharks (2)

Series price: Calgary +275, San Jose -300

Season series: 3-1 (one Calgary win came in overtime)



For those who believe the Flames will advance to the second round, the theory goes: hit the Sharks, beat the Sharks.



It seems that some feel just because San Jose has speed, it doesn’t have grit. Not so, and if Calgary thinks it can beat the Sharks into submission, this series won’t last long.



San Jose can flat-out skate and the acquisition of Brian Campbell at the trade deadline added a two-way defenseman who can kickstart the breakout, something the Sharks needed.



Joe Thornton leads the 10th-best power play in the league and the Sharks own the best penalty killing unit that can also score on you in a hurry with one misguided pass. Perhaps no team scores better in transition than the Sharks also, who use their speed and long passes through the neutral zone to catch teams on their heels.



The Flames bring some confidence into this series knowing they won the last three meetings with San Jose. You’d think they would beat the Flames by keeping the score low but the two most recent meetings saw 16 combined goals.



Calgary has some firepower with guys like Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay, so you don’t want to get careless in your own end. The Flames actually average more goals per game this year with 2.8 compared to the Sharks’ 2.6.



This series could come down to goaltending with Miikka Kiprusoff for Calgary and Evgeni Nabokov for San Jose. Both played 77 games this season and had eerily similar numbers, with the slight nod going to Nabokov due shutouts (six) and save percentage (.910).



Key handicapping factor: Don’t get too excited if San Jose jumps out to a fast start and you bet the Sharks. No team has more losses (8) when leading after one period. The good news? No team has more wins when leading after two (35).



Pick: Sharks seven games



Colorado Avalanche (6) vs. Minnesota Wild (3)

Series price: Colorado +100, Minnesota -110

Season series: 5-3 Minnesota (one shootout win for Colorado, one for Minny)



In mid-March I traveled to Minnesota to see the Wild take on the Avs, which I discussed in this blog. Based on what I saw, we can expect more of two things in the playoffs in this series: unders and home victories.



The home team went 7-1 in this series this season and the under went 6-2 and it’s with good reason.



Minnesota has some of the most passionate fans of any sport I have ever seen. There were more jerseys per fan in the building than you’ll likely find in the league and this is an arena built for hockey that can blow your eardrums out after goals. From what I've heard, Denver's Pepsi Center isn't far behind when it comes to cheering on the home team.



Minnesota rides the crowd to play its defensive style to perfection and it’s no surprise the under is 12-18 in Wild home games compared to 18-17 in away games. It’s tough to get a sniff around the net and Niklas Backstrom makes more saves than not when you get a chance.



The best player on the ice for Colorado, besides Joe Sakic, was Ryan Smyth. It seemed every time he was on the ice, he made something happen and the Avs need more of that. He’s one of those guys who drives you crazy because he loses the puck five times in a rush, but it somehow always ends up back on his stick.



Teams have been all over Peter Forsberg – who returned around the trade deadline – and he hasn’t looked like the old Forsberg since his return. That means the Avs need offense to come from other places and youngster Paul Stastny will have to come into this series playoff-ready.



Colorado has the third-worst power play in the league and Minnesota has the seventh-best, so the Avs can’t afford to get into penalty trouble. Jose Theodore needs a huge series to help his club out because the blueline is not the strength for this club.



Minnesota also got some bad news when it lost Nick Schultz to an appendectomy recently. That means the Wild are without two of their top defenseman, the other being Kurtis Foster.



Stick to home teams and unders in this series and you should come out OK.



Key handicapping factor: The last eight meetings in this series in Minnesota have gone under the total.



Pick: Minnesota seven games



Dallas Stars (5) vs. Anaheim Ducks (4)

Series price: Dallas +190, Anaheim -210

Season series: 5-3 (one shootout win by Anaheim)



It’s not often you see a team favored this heavily to win a 4-5 series. It’s also not often a team as good as the Ducks finish fourth in the conference.



The Ducks started slowly to the year after traveling to London for a season opening series with the Kings. The miles from that and a long Stanley Cup run seemed to catch up to them. Then Scott Neidermayer came out of retirement in the second half and Teemu Selanne returned too.



Once again, everyone in hockey circles seem to be labeling Anaheim as the scariest team in hockey and it finished the season on an 8-2 run. It’s almost not fair.



The Ducks have two of the best defensemen in the league in Chris Pronger and Neidermayer. They have scorers for days and Jean-Sebastien Giguere is a former Conn Smythe winner. Oh yeah – and the Ducks are huge and nasty as heck to boot.



But playoffs are exciting because of the unexpected upsets and this is one I have a hunch about. The Stars didn’t beat the Ducks in the season series for no reason and this is one opponent I’d be nervous of in the first round.



Dallas is a sound defensive club with a tough goaltender in Marty Turco. The Stars also added some offensive spunk when they picked up a former Conn Smythe winner of their own, Brad Richards, in one of the biggest trade deadline deals.



Richards is questionable for Game 1 with an upper body injury, along with Mike Ribeiro, who should be back after suffering from the flu. They’ll need both players to be at their best to play into May.



Dallas has a better power play and a better penalty killing unit than Anaheim this season. The Stars have also made far more money for bettors at 42-40 ATS. But this one will come down to who wants it more.



Anaheim comes in as the hotter club with an 8-2 record, but Dallas comes in a little angry. The Stars finished the season with a fiery 4-2 win over San Jose and they should carry that edge into Game 1.



Key handicapping factor: Anaheim has allowed 1.8 goals over its last 10. Dallas has allowed 3.1 over the same span.



Pick: Dallas in six games



Raji