Betting NHL Back to Back

[Raji]

Life as an NHL player isn’t all million-dollar contracts, post-game beers and puck bunnies.



Thanks to this season’s hotly-debated schedule, teams are jamming in more games in fewer days on the calendar, making morning skates, airplane issues and hotel rooms even more bothersome than usual.



Hockey players can be a funny breed. Above all else, they’re creatures of habit and they can get fairly ornery when they miss their pre-game naps. It makes for some interesting handicapping decisions for bettors.



“I generally like to fade a team that is playing the second night of a back-to-back,” says Covers Expert and puck guru Scott Rickenbach “This is particularly true if they're traveling for the second game or if they're coming off a big win the night before. Of course a key is also line value. I never like to lay more than -150 on a favorite and I try to focus mostly on dogs and very small favorites.”

Back-to-Back betsStraight up (SU) and Puckline (PL)
Capitals 8-4-2-0 SU, 11-3 PL
Islanders 8-3-0-1 SU, 6-6 PL
Wild 8-3-0-1 SU, 6-6 PL
Coyotes 7-5-0-1 SU, 11-2 PL
Maple Leafs 1-8-0-1 SU, 5-5 PL
Thrashers 2-9-0-1 SU, 3-10 PL
A few of the best bets going in the second half of back-to-backs are the Washington Capitals, New York Islanders, Minnesota Wild and Phoenix Coyotes. Washington is 8-4 straight up (SU) with two overtime losses and 11 covered pucklines in those 14 games. New York and Minnesota are both 8-3 with a shootout loss, but have only covered six pucklines apiece in those games. Phoenix, meanwhile, is only 7-5 SU with a shootout loss in the back end of consecutive games, but has covered the puckline 11 times in 13 chances.

Conversely, the Toronto Maple Leafs own the league’s worst SU record in these situations (1-8 with a shootout loss) but are 5-5 on the puckline. Atlanta isn’t much better at 2-9 SU with a shootout loss, but the Thrashers are a terrible 3-9 on the puckline. Ottawa’s pretty good straight up in those games, but can’t cover the puckline either at 3-10.



It’s worth noting that the best teams in back-to-back games are generally some of the league’s youngest as well. Washington, Phoenix, and Minnesota’s average ages all check in below 26 years young, and the Islanders aren’t far off at 26.4 years either. Meanwhile, Toronto and Atlanta are among the league’s oldest at 29.1 years and 29.6 years respectively, so maybe there is something to the ‘old legs’ theory in back-to-backs.



“One of the biggest keys in handicapping back to backs is a team's goaltending situations,” Rickenbach says. “Some teams have goaltenders who basically play every night no matter what the situation. However, others have back-up goalies who almost always play in the second night of a back-to-back. Knowing who will be in goal and how they've been playing recently is a key to getting the most out of these back-to-backs.”



It’s good to look ahead at the schedule to have an idea where you might find some of these spots. The Edmonton Oilers, for example, have only played seven back-to-backs so far this year and only have a couple more on the schedule.



Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has played eight back-to-backs so far, but has three more left to go while playing 12 of its last 19 on the road. Calgary is in the same situation with three back-to-backs left among a dozen road dates before the playoffs.



“Now, what I will look at is more an overview of how a team's health is or what their full scheduling situation is. Like for instance, if it's not only the second night of a back to back but it's also a fourth game in five nights scenario I often pay special attention to a situation like this. Or if a team is running short on healthy bodies due to flu or injury and then they're stuck in a back-to-back situation that grabs my eye as well.”



You can get some help from the books with the lines for these games if you look around. The great thing about betting these back-to-back situations is that it isn’t exactly the first thing on an oddsmaker’s daily to-do list. Especially when you consider the number of hockey bets a sportsbook writes in comparison to basketball or football wagers.



“I don't think [back-to-back situations] carry a lot of weight with the oddsmakers,” says Rickenbach. “I think they're looking mostly at home/road dichotomies as well as injury situations more than anything else when it comes to setting their numbers.”

Raji