Colts / Saints Preview

[Raji]

Colts give the ‘D’ its due

The Indianapolis Colts know that winning the Super Bowl last season put a huge target on their backs, and they expect opponents to go all-out to knock them from the top of the mountain.

They’ll get their first test from the New Orleans Saints this Thursday night. The defending champs had nothing but good things to say about the New Orleans defense this past week, praising their opponents’ pass rush and run-stopping abilities.

"They play very aggressively," head coach Tony Dungy told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "They play a lot of man-to-man coverage, and they come after you. They have good pass rushers, and they're going to try to pressure us, I'm sure."

Both center Jeff Saturday and quarterback Peyton Manning gave New Orleans’ front four props, admitting keeping guys like Will Smith and Charles Grant contained would be a tall task for the offensive line.

New Orleans ranked second in total defense during the preseason, allowing just under 233 yards per game. Last season, the defense finished 11th in the league after giving up 307.3 yards and 20.1 points per contest.

Not so sound on the ground

If Indianapolis' efficient offense has a weakness it has to be its running attack. The Colts one-two-punch of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai is no longer, leaving the bulk of the carries to Addai, the second-year back out of LSU.

Former Saskatchewan Roughrider Kenton Keith was named Addai’s backup this week after beating out DeDe Dorsey for the second-string position. Indy has only three backs on the roster right now, including fullback Luke Lawton, and coach Dungy is aware of the thinness of his ground game.

“We’ll continue to look. Luke Lawton’s done a good job for us too. So probably getting a third true tailback is something that we’d like to do,” Dungy told the Indiana Tribune-Star.

Last season, Addai rushed for over 1,000 yards in his rookie campaign and scored seven touchdowns on the ground.

Brees says bring it on

Opening the season on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions is not the way most teams would like to kick off their year – unless you’re the New Orleans Saints or their quarterback Drew Brees.

Brees told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he is excited to get the regular season started and the Colts are a great challenge for him and his teammates. The 28-year-old QB, entering his second season with the Saints, is expecting a wild environment in the RCA Dome this Thursday when the franchise celebrates its 2006-2007 championship.

Brees said he sees the opening game scheduling as an honor and a testament to how well New Orleans did last season. The Saints missed facing the Colts in the Super Bowl by one game, losing to the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship game.

"I mean, people think we can hang with these guys," Brees told reporters. "Even if they didn't, it wouldn't matter what they thought because as a team we're very confident. We know what we can do. We're not satisfied where we finished the season last year. And we've been looking forward to this opportunity for a long time."

Books ready for a shootout

Oddsmakers are preparing for some fireworks this Thursday when the NFL season kicks off. Sportsbooks have Thursday’s total set at a whopping 52 points, accounting for two of the league’s most explosive offenses.

“This is like must-see TV,” Saints cornerback and former Colt Jason David told the Baton Rouge Advocate. “It’s two exciting offenses with great players. You’ve got a lot of star power on offense. At any given time a big play can happen. If I was a fan, I wouldn’t miss a snap.”

New Orleans, who ranked No.1 in total offense last season, can go blow-for-blow with the Colts’ attack. Head coach Sean Payton’s offensive schemes will get even better production out of Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and receiver Marques Colston now that they’ve each had a season of playing together under their belts.

The Saints and Colts were the top two passing teams in the NFL last year, but while Indianapolis managed to put up almost 27 points per game, New Orleans struggled to capitalize on their efforts. The Saints ranked fifth in points per game.

“Yards are great,” running back Deuce McAllister told reporters, “but to be able to score more touchdowns would be important for us.”

Raji

[BangTheBook]

I have feeling Saints put up 45 in this one? Am I crazy?

[UMDBookingRook]

alone?

[Raji]

Info on the total

Any marketing graduate or television producer will tell you it’s a proven theory that sex sells. While HBO pedals polygamy with its drama Big Love, the NFL has put together a sexy matchup of its two best offensive teams for Thursday night’s season opener.

Just how often do the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints score? Well, maybe not as often as a guy with three smoking-hot wives, but often enough for oddsmakers to bump the total up to 53.

The Colts and Saints were at or near the top of most offensive categories last season. The two teams each finished in the top five for points per game, yards per game, passing yards, first downs and third down conversion rate.

Couple that with two average defenses (that’s probably a little generous) and we may be in for fireworks, big plays and no punts. This could be a situation where the winner is the team that has the ball last.

“This is a classic marquee matchup,” says Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas. “We knew we had to come out high. In this type of situation, the favorite and over always gets hammered. There may be some wise-guy action the day of the game, but that shouldn’t outweigh the public support.”

Oddsmakers made sure to keep the total nice and high, maybe too high for bettors to be able to cash in on the over. To put the number in better perspective, the total surpassed 50 just three times in 267 NFL games last season, and only once did it exceed 53. In each instance, Indianapolis or New Orleans was involved.

Some experts contend that offensive execution is not as sharp in the first week of the season. Preseason is fine and dandy, but don’t try and tell me it’s a good way to keep plays precise. Coordinators don’t dig deep into the playbook and star players are just hoping to stay healthy in August.

“That’s something we look at,” Korner says. “It depends on the situation. If a club brings in a new coordinator, it normally wants to implement a new system. That can sometimes take time before the players become comfortable.”

This concern shouldn’t apply to either team taking the field Thursday. Tom Moore has been calling the plays in Indianapolis since Peyton Manning entered the league. Sean Payton and Drew Brees look like they’re at the beginning of a beautiful relationship.

So, are we in for an abundance of over-the-top touchdown celebrations?

“Unfortunately it’s never that easy,” Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach says. “Maybe the Saints and Colts will each focus on the ground game or a short passing attack to keep the clock running. Maybe each offense will want to do what it can to keep the other offense off the field.

“Keep in mind that strategy comes into play significantly in these matchups. I think each of these teams has a ton of respect for the other team’s offense.”

It would be in the Saints’ best interest to play keep-away from the Colts with a noisy RCA Dome and enthusiastic crowd working against the visitors. Only two other teams averaged a higher time-of- possession in 2006.

With Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush in the backfield, Indy’s run defense could be exposed again.

Raji

[BangTheBook]

Originally Posted by UMDBookingRook

alone?

OK 45 might be a bit high, 35 is a good bet Run reggie Run