 Pass on week four
What does Week 4 of the NFL preseason mean to you?
If you’re smart you’ll take this week as a sign from the NFL gods and take a break from your degenerate ways. Put down that parlay card and step away from those pointspreads. Pull your eyeballs from that sports ticker and log off the Covers.com posting forum for a change.
Take the dog for a walk or something. Swing for the fences with your last chance at summer romance. Take in Superbad for the third time.
Stop. Reading. This. Column.
But the reality is you’re reading this piece because you have no intention of going along with my proposal. It’s the last week of the NFL preseason, a showcase of scrubs, a dress rehearsal without the bride, groom and (barely) any witnesses. It is the ultimate calm before a 17-week storm and you’re still thinking about getting some action down.
Coaches could care less about game plans, dudes who were just bagging your groceries last week are taking first-string snaps this week. As much as oddsmakers don’t like to admit, these pointspreads really are about as questionable as Lance Briggs' logic following his billion-dollar Lamborgini crash. It’s not that books don’t work on these lines, it’s that there just isn’t much you can do when the whole slate of games is a "Where’s Waldo" for anything substantial to base these odds on.
And you still want to bet.
Worst thing? I’m probably no better. I tell myself every year that I’ll leave this week alone and still always end up with a play or two. The important thing is to go into it with your eyes open. It’s still preseason, but it’s a whole different animal.
Everybody's goal is to just get through this week without a major casualty. If you’re betting this week that’s exactly what you have to do, too.
Read carefully; you’ve been warned.
Bet on camp competition
San Francisco 49ers starting quarterback Alex Smith doesn’t have to worry about looking over his shoulder with Trent Dilfer sitting second on the depth chart, though that doesn’t mean Smith has nothing to prove with the dozen snaps he expects to get tonight against the San Diego Chargers.
Smith’s 103.9 preseason quarterback rating is just below Dilfer’s and he’s not happy about it. Quarterbacks are whacky guys and when they get along as well as Smith and Dilfer do, this means something. Smith doesn’t want to have the No. 2 guy in his ear all the time about it and Dilfer loves the bragging rights.
"I'm three points behind," Smith told reporters. "I need to get above 106. (That means) moving the ball, get some first downs, move the chains."
“The best scenario is to put in a 10-12-play drive and end with a score."
San Francisco’s set as a 3-point underdog at San Diego. Think I like the Niners.
Defer to depth
Seems like a no-brainer here, but depth is especially important this week at the quarterback position, something Covers.com writer Ashton Grewal took a look at earlier this preseason. Check it out here, guy knows his stuff. The five deepest teams at QB that he outlined (Chicago, Philadelphia, Oakland, Cleveland, and Washington) are 10-5 straight up and 9-5-1 against the number combined.
The Raiders, by the way, are still trying to figure out who's going to be their No. 1 guy as they finish off the preseason as 3-point underdogs at Seattle. I'd go with Daunte Culpepper as the starter and take the points in this one.
Fade the big faves
Are the Tennessee Titans a touchdown better than the Green Bay Packers? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it this week. I don’t have any hard numbers to support backing bigger underdogs blindly and definitely don’t suggest it, but there’s something going on when 14 of 16 games have pointspreads ranging between one and four points. Just saying.
Weird stat of the week
I thought most of the totals on the board looked a little low a few weeks ago and now there's just a pair of totals over 40 points again this week.
That got me thinking and I ended up with your Weird Stat of the Week: by my humble count the over is 56-36-2 (about 60 percent) in preseason play. Pretty significant.
Totals are a funny thing in preseason. A lot of people talk about hedging slightly to the under, arguing that offensive systems take longer to implement and offensive rhythm is disrupted with all the substitutions. But I never bought it. Guess I still don’t.
Scour the schedule
If you’re Tony Dungy or Sean Payton, how much are you going to care about this week’s game when they square off for real on opening night about a week from now? Not much.
The New Orleans Saints are a 1 ½-point underdog at home to Miami tonight and Dungy's Indianapolis Colts are 5-point underdogs at Cincinnati on Friday night. Coincidence?
Bet low limits
Whatever you do, don’t blow your bankroll on a hot tip this week. Week 1’s just around the corner, be patient.
Raji | 
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