different type of pick: Betting the NFL draft

[Raji]

Wed, Apr 25, 2007By Jeff Mason

NFL teams won’t be making the type of picks most bettors are used to on Saturday, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be gambling. And that doesn’t mean you can’t either.

Odds are out for the NFL draft – the highlight of the year for some sports fans, two days of drudgery for others. But it’s popular and it’s on TV, so it’s made available for betting.

Of course, the biggest question is who will be first overall. The answer is anything but a certainty after the Houston Texans selected Mario Williams over Reggie Bush last year.

The Oakland Raiders hold the No. 1 pick this year, and are favored to pick LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell at -255. Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson is the only other player listed to be picked first at +210.

Johnson is widely considered the top player in the draft, but the Raiders already have Randy Moss at receiver, and are desperately in need of a quarterback.

Johnson is a +100 favorite to go second overall, a slot now held by the Detroit Lions. But given the Lions history with wide receivers in the draft – they selected a wide receiver with each of their top 10 picks from 2003 to 2005 – Johnson is more likely to go second via a trade.

One team likely to trade up to get Johnson is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, owners of the fourth pick. If Detroit keeps the pick it is expected to select Clemson defensive end Gaines Adams, now the second favorite to go second overall at +180.

Then there is the saga of Brady Quinn, who is now both the favorite to go to the Cleveland Browns with the third overall pick at -130, and the second favorite to go with the seventh pick, currently held by the Minnesota Vikings, at +225.

Minnesota’s seventh spot is another interesting position. The Vikings could have many options depending on how the chips fall on draft day for Quinn and Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson, the favorite to go with the seventh pick at +200.

Minnesota could use both players, but are more likely to trade out of the spot in hopes of filling more needs in the later rounds.

Among the safest bets on the board is the Arizona Cardinals taking Wisconsin left tackle Joe Thomas with the fifth pick at -140. The Cardinals may even trade for Detroit's No. 2 pick to land him. Thomas is listed at +450 to go second overall.

The Browns are expected to take Quinn, Peterson or Thomas with the third pick. Peterson is the second favorite at +135 while Thomas is listed at +500.

Oddsmakers are also offering plenty of bets outside of which player goes when. Among them: Which university will have a player drafted first, Ohio State or Florida?

The Gators are favored at -135, with the Buckeyes listed at -105. Florida has two first-round candidates in defensive end/outside linebacker Jarvis Moss and safety Reggie McNeal. Ohio State has wide receiver/return specialist Ted Ginn Jr. Opinions differ on which player among the three will be selected first, but all are expected to go in the latter half of the first round.

Another prop questions whether or not newly hired Atlanta Falcons head coach Bobby Petrino will select a player from the Louisville Cardinals, the team he coached last year, in any of the seven rounds. Both Yes and No are listed at -120.

The Falcons have the eighth pick overall and could be in line to select 19-year-old phenom Amobi Okoye, but Okoye’s position, defensive end, and the fact he is highly coveted by many teams means chances are slim.

A more realistic pick is running back Michael Bush – a former first-round talent who has dropped to the middle rounds because he broke his leg in the first game of the 2006 college season. Petrino recruited Bush to Louisville, and coached him for three years. Bush could be the steal of the draft if he proves healthy. There are 10 Louisville players in the draft overall.

Finally, another prop with excellent value wonders in which round the Miami Dolphins will draft a quarterback. The second round is favored at +150, and given the depth at quarterback in the second tier, chances are good the Dolphins will take a signal caller with the 40th pick overall.

Miami has the ninth pick in the first round, but Quinn and Russell are both expected to be gone, and the Dolphins have other needs to fill. The second wave of quarterbacks, featuring Stanford’s Trent Edwards, Michigan State’s Drew Stanton and BYU’s John Beck, is expected to start coming off the board at the beginning of the second round – probably starting with Detroit. One of the three will probably fall to Miami.

Raji