NFL Week 1 POWER SYSTEM

[ProInfoSports]

NFL Week 1 POWER SYSTEM

This NFL POWER SYSTEM is from Section 1 of The 2006 NFL POWER SYSTEM e-CYCLOPEDIA, which examines Early Season situations.

PS1-3 - In Game 1, play AGAINST a non-division road favorite of more than 3 points with a TOTAL of 42 points or less before a conference home contest in its next game. (13-0 ATS, +9.3 ppg)

Playing an unfamiliar foe as a road favorite has been a tough way for non-division teams to start the season, especially with a conference home contest coming up. An O/U of less than 42 points indicates that it's a game in which the teams aren't expected to be lighting up the scoreboard. Usually, a lower-scoring game will favor the underdog, contributing to the success of this NFL POWER SYSTEM.

These road favorites have failed to cover the spread on every occasion for 20 years, going 0-13 ATS. Most recently, Denver was a solid 5-point favorite at Miami in last year's season opener prior to a home game with division-rival San Diego. The Broncos were broken easily by the Dolphins, 34-10, as Denver failed to cover the spread by more than 4 TDs.

This Sunday, September 10, Philadelphia plays a non-division game at Houston. The Eagles are favored by more than a FG in a game with a TOTAL in the high 30s. Next up, they will be home against division-rival New York Giants, qualifying Philadelphia as the Play AGAINST team for this PRO INFO SPORTS NFL POWER SYSTEM.

[nflman]

Since 2001, NFC teams are 0-6 ATS as away favorites of more than 3 points. May be 0-8 or more if you search back further and include closing favorites of 3 that opened at 3.5 or greater.

Play on:
Detroit +6
Houston +4
Green Bay +3.5

Personally, I don't like Green Bay because their problems are abundant. Philly's thin on the offensive line so Houston looks good, if only I could find an angle suggesting a Texans ATS win before game time.

Detroit has Martz as their new OC. HC's signing on with new teams as OC's are 8-0 ATS vs. their ex-employers and ex-divisional rivals. Reference Jim Fassel and Marty Mornhinweg. The freaky thing about this one is that each of those last two OC's met with their old friends the very next year following their exit and they only meet all four once every four years.

Just like Martz.

I like these freak occurences, especially when a hot point spread system is tied on with it.

Nice work Pro.

[ProInfoSports]

If you're looking for a positive Houston ATS mark, you may want to check how they have done at home vs. NFC. Their only spread losses vs. NFC teams have happened in OT, and only because the visitor got a TD instead of FG. And you may want to check on how Philly has done vs. the AFC.

[nflman]

Sorry, I don't bother with team trends. Looking for another system. Let you know if I find it.

Team trends account for what has occurred. Like each teams won/loss record at the end of the year. Pittsburgh was 19-1 last year not including preseason, but we don't bet on Pittsburgh this Thursday vs. Miami based on that.