Nflx Handicapping Tip #10 – Starters & Team Depth

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NFLX HANDICAPPING TIP #10 – STARTERS & TEAM DEPTH

Today’s NFLX Handicapping Tip is:

Play AGAINST a team with few positions open to competition.

In handicapping the Preseason, consider team depth and unit rotations. If both teams are playing the starters for a very limited time, ignore their impact. In most preseason games, they’ll get the bulk of the media attention, yet if they are on the bench by the 2nd quarter, they won’t determine the outcome of the game. Find out what you can about the 3rd and 4th stringers. Generally, many of these players are undrafted rookie free agents; however, there is a considerable difference in quality among these players from one team to the next. Teams with more roster spots open will tend to get the better backups into camp. And teams with more roster spots open are usually teams that had poor records the year before, often preseason underdogs. Try to avoid laying points with playoff teams from the previous season with most of their roster spots already filled, because the quality of their free agent rookies is often quite low. There simply aren’t a lot of positions open on those type of teams, making them unattractive to the better free agents – the ones with options to go to more than one training camp.

As bad as San Francisco has been the past 2 years, they were a terrific value in the 2005 Preseason. When they were 6’-point underdogs at San Diego, it was too tempting to pass up, as the Chargers had little to prove. We made the 49ers a 3 STAR SELECTION and noted:

“San Diego is expected to play its starters sparingly against the 49ers. That means about a quarter of work for signal-caller Drew Brees, but NO work for RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who will be held out again to keep him fresh for regular season. Philip Rivers and Chet Lemon will be doing most of the quarterbacking for the Chargers in this contest…San Diego will be playing for the third time in 12 days, and open the season at home against Dallas, so you’ll have to excuse them if they don’t have much in the tank here. The Bolts are the only team in the NFL that returns all 22 starters on offense and defense, plus their punter, kicker and long snapper, so there are no position battles to be won on the field here. That’s all the more reason for the starters to get off the field early…San Francisco has been an underdog in their 3 previous games and we look for them to hang tough here, as they have done all preseason, and get the ATS win…”

As expected, the Niners’ backups were able to rally against the Chargers reserves and keep this game within the number, despite losing 28-24. This is another example of why it’s vital to find out what you can about the 3rd and 4th stringers for each team. These are the players who will be on the field in the 2nd half, when the pointspread winners and losers will usually be determined.