Nflx Handicapping Tip #1 – Coaching Factor

[ProInfoSports]

NFLX HANDICAPPING TIP #1 – COACHING FACTOR

Today’s NFLX Handicapping Tip is:

Play ON a team with a coach looking to make a statement or shake up his team.

The first and main factor to handicapping the preseason is coaching. Obviously, coaches are out to win every time in the regular season, except in rare circumstances late in the year when they have home field advantage locked up for the playoffs or no postseason advantage to be gained with a win. In that case, they may rest their key players and treat the game like what? Like a preseason game; meaning, an impressive showing by the starters is not the main objective. Staying healthy and sharp are the goals in these cases; otherwise, a coach’s desire to have a regular season dominant performance is negated by the opposing coach’s desire to do the same. In the preseason, it’s the other way around, making the coaching factor the strongest single predictive element.

Last year we saw this scenario develop with St. Louis as they went to Detroit to play the Lions in a nationally televised Monday Night Football game. In our GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT Opinion Selection that recommended a wager on Mike Martz’ Rams, we noted:

“St. Louis will certainly be looking for a stronger defensive effort than they displayed in last week’s embarrassing loss in San Diego. Mike Martz’s team surrendered 215 rushing yards and three ground touchdowns to the Chargers. Needless to say, Martz is not happy. ‘There are a lot of defensive positions that aren't safe - probably half of them,’ he said. ‘We're not competing on defense like we should or can. I'm not very happy with that. So we'll have to see some sort of change there.’ Martz is known to take it easy on his players during the week, so as to not bang them up before a game; however, Friday's practice included a rare live tackling session featuring the first-team defense. Without question, Martz means business, and his team, especially the defense should respond. This is similar to last year during the exhibition season when St. Louis was embarrassed by the Chiefs in Kansas City in a nationally televised Monday Night game. Martz cracked the whip for the next several days and the Rams responded by scalping the Redskins 28-3.”

As expected, St. Louis came out and thoroughly dominated the game, embarrassing the Lions in their home den, 37-13. While most coaches are trying to get ready to win during the regular season, occasionally a coach will decide it’s time for some regular season action in the preseason and the results can be decisive.