Prop Picks

[Bobby O'Shea]

I may play some props and found some prop "picks" online I don't know if anyone is playing them, but I thought this may help some



Tom Grassi

1. Will either team convert a fourth down conversion?
I going to lay the -210 and wager on yes. Bill Cowher has always been a gambling type of coach and with the Bus a short yardage specialist would expect the Steelers to take a chance some time in the game. Also, Seattle has Shawn Alexander and if they get just outside of field goal range wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a shot. In the late stages of the game, the team that is trailing will surely try to go on fourth down.

2. Will the team that scores last win the game?
I’m betting no and going to take the +170. One would think that if the game is close the last score would be the winning score. However, if the game is lopsided the other team may get a "gimme" score.

3. Total quarterback sacks by both teams over or under 4.5 sacks:
The gut reaction would be to take this prop over, but we think both quarterbacks will not get caught holding on to the football. Big Ben is very tough to bring down, and Seattle will be ready for the Pittsburgh blitzes. Lay the -110 and take it under.

4. Pittsburgh to score first touchdown by running the football:
If you like the Steelers you would think that they are going to score first, and most likely via the run. You can get 11-5 on your money. It’s a bit of a risky bet, but aren’t they all!

5. Under 42.5 points:
The current total in the Super Bowl is 47.5 points. If you like the game to be low scoring you might want to take a look at taking this prop bet. You get a very nice return of +170 if the teams fail score 43 points combined. We like the under so we’re going to take the nice return.
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Ben Burns

Will Jerome Bettis rush over or under 2.5 yards on his first rushing attempt?
As you are well aware, there are literally hundreds of propositions available for wagering on Super Bowl XL. Some of these prop bets, like betting on the coin toss, are just plain silly. If you want to risk -110 or more on the flip of a coin, come over to my house and I'll take your wagers all day long! However, if you dig hard enough, other prop bets can offer decent value. I feel that one such wager is on whether Jerome Bettis will gain over or under 2.5 yards on his first rushing attempt. Playing in his hometown, in perhaps his final game, Bettis is as fired up for the Big Game as anyone. I won't attempt to predict how well Bettis will play. However, I do feel that there is a reasonable chance that he'll be able to channel all his emotion for a positive gain on his first carry. Let's look at the numbers. Bettis rushed for a career low in yards this season (368), but he still averaged 3.3 yards per rush. In 13 seasons he has averaged 3.9 yards per attempt and has never averaged less than 3.3 yards per attempt in a single season. In this year's three playoff games, Bettis has run the ball 42 times and gained 137 yards. That's an average of 3.26 yards per carry. Let's look for him to match or exceed that average on his first Super Bowl carry and play on the Over 2.5 yards on Bettis' first carry. Good Luck and enjoy the game!
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Carlo Campanella

Which team will record the 1st QB sack in game?
I'm playing Pittsburgh at -115 to get the first sack of the game. Pittsburgh turned into Blitz-Burgh during Playoff action and those daring tactics got them to the Super Bowl. Expect more of the same on Sunday as they were able to sack QB Peyton Manning 5 times (Note: he was untouchable during Regular season play) and then get to QB Jake Plummer on 3 more occasions.
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Tom Freese

LA Clippers Elton Brand (-3.5 points) more points scored than Shaun Alexander (+3.5) rushing attempts:
The LA Clippers Elton Brand (-3.5 points) will have more points on Super Bowl Sunday than the Seahawks Shaun Alexander +3.5 attempts will have rushing attempts. At this writing, Brand is averaging 27 points in his last three games. He goes up against a Toronto team that at this writing has allowed 113 points a game their last six outings. Alexander will find the going tough against a Steeler defense that allows just 3.5 yards a carry. Look for Seattle to throw twice as much as they run here, and thereby keeping Alexander's rushes to a minimum.
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Al McMordie

Number of successful third-down attempts by the Steelers Over/Under 5.5?
Here’s a free prop bet I’ve been eyeing this week: Number of successful third-down attempts by the Steelers 'Over' 5.5. Pittsburgh has been running a highly successful ball control offense thus far in the postseason, facing numerous short yardage situations. And the Steelers have been making them, with QB Ben Roethlisberger’s pinpoint passing and their balanced offense and power running game. Enjoy the last game of the 2005-06 football campaign, and remember there are still plenty of soft lines out there, if you know where to look!
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Jimmy the Moose

Total Receiving yards by Heath Miller over/under 33.5 yards?
Big Ben has been throwing the ball well in the playoffs and he should continue that today. Expect Seattle to be more concerned with covering Ward and stopping Parker and the Bus, leaving Miller open for at least a couple of big catches for big yards. At 6'5 Heath is a big target and the rookie TE will find ways to get open. In the playoffs Miller has is averaging 35.2 yards a game. Not only will Heath Miller's Total Receiving Yards be over 33.5 but I'm expecting Miller to score on Sunday.
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Larry Ness

Total Receiving yards by Heath Miller over/under 33.5 yards?
I also like Miller 'over' his total number of receptions for the game if you can find it. While the Steelers are best-known as a running team, Pittsburgh has surprised both the Colts and the Broncos in its last two games, by coming out aggressively.

Roethlisberger, unlike in last year's postseason, has not been tentative and has played flawlessly. During the regular season Miller had 39 catches. That's not a lot but it did rank him second to only Hines Ward on the team.

Against Indy and Denver, Miller caught five passes for a total of 92 yards and I not only expect that he will be a bigger part of the Pittsburgh offense in this game, I also see the 6-5 tight end being a major matchup problem for the Seattle LBs and 2ndy.


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Kevin O'Neill

Matt Hasselbeck Over/Under 300 yards passing?
Let's make an effort to squeeze some value out of a prop where the house enjoys an enormous advantage. In the six categories offered for how many passing yards Matt Hasselbeck will have, we'll take over 300 yards at 3-1 odds. The over/under on Hasselbeck's passing yards is a little under 240 yards at most shops but if the Seahawks are playing catch up this one is reachable. Though the puny odds in each category have the house figuring to pay out less than 44 cents for every dollar bet, we'll look to the over 300 yards at 3-1 odds.
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Robert Ross

Will Ben Roethlisberger throw a touchdown before throwing an interception?
I'm going with Ben Roethlisberger to throw a TD before he throws an interception, in fact I think he will throw a scoring pass long before. I don't think he's going to throw an interception at all, for that matter, which would mean some of those other props with the Seattle defensive guys (tackles, sacks, interceptions) might be worth a look under, too.
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John Ryan

Since I already like Seattle to not only cover, but win this game SU, I'm taking a small amount of dough and placing it on Seattle to win by 4 to 6 points at current odds of 11-1 and also on Seattle to win by 7 to 10 points at 8-1 is an attractive wager. My AiS shows a better than 52% probability that Seattle will win the game between 4 and 10 points. Although not a huge probabilistic certainty you are getting paid handsomely to assume the risk of these wagers. By analogy, would you play black jack for one hand and if you win you get at least 8-1 return? Of course you would, so based on the AiS data this prop bet makes a lot of sense to me. I also am attracted to the game going into overtime at plus 600. Seattle is my pick, but again based on the data this game could easily come down to OT or a last second FG.
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Tom Scott

Will there be a defensive touchdown or a kickoff / punt return for a touchdown?
I like the prop bet that asks "Will there be a defensive touchdown or a The posted line is between +170 to +190 for "Yes" and between -200 to -240 for the "No." I believe this game will be decided by either a defensive score, or a kick return for a touchdown, thereby making the "Yes" a value play.
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Scott Spreitzer

1. Jerramy Stevens over or under three receptions:
My top 20* prop in the Super Bowl is a play on Seattle tight end Jerramy Stevens to go over three receptions. The Seahawks are facing just their fourth 3-4 defensive scheme they've seen this season. And, for all intents and purposes, it's really just their second 3-4, if you consider two of those came against the hapless 49ers and Texans. The one true 3-4 they saw this year was against Dallas. The Seahawks were forced to go over the middle to the tight end and Stevens grabbed five receptions for 60 yards. To beat the 3-4, you must include the tight end as a major player in the offense. My top play is to take Stevens to have more than three receptions. It's my top play because it's a prop where it doesn't matter who wins the game. Whether Seattle wins or loses, Stevens will have to perform.

2. Which team will have the longest punt return?
I'm taking the Steelers to have the longest punt return at -125. Seattle's Achilles heal has been their punt-coverage schemes and it was exploited once again when Steve Smith return one for a touchdown in the NFC title game. Look for the shifty Randle-El to work some magic at least once in the contest. The Steelers to have the longest punt return is the play.

3. Will one team have three unanswered scores?
I'm laying the price that one team will have three unanswered scores. It's happened eight of the last ten Super Bowls and two in a row. The streak continues on Sunday.
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Rob Veno

LeRoy Hill (Seattle) Over/Under 6 combined Tackles, Sacks, Interceptions?
Siding with Hill here who is the less heralded of the Seahawks rookie linebacking tandem but he's been extremely effective in the playoffs thus far. Hill who's had games of 9 & 6 tackles in the post season thus far figures to be active here as his right outside linebacker postion is right where the Steelers prefer to run. With LG Alan Faneca and LT Marvel Smith the tandem Pittsburgh will run behind, it'll be the job of Hill to clean up and get in on tackles. With an added attention being paid by Pittsburgh blocking to the pursuit of MLB Lofa Tatupu, expect Hill to capitalize on numerous tackle opportunities. Prop counts assists + solos and the added bonus of receiving credit for sacks (Hill has 7.5 this season) is likely to help here also. Expect the Seattle rookie to total at least 8 in this proposition play.


Bobby