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Old 01-27-2006, 02:18 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Great Props for the Superbowl

Check out some of the great ones..

Super Bowl props keep getting wackier

Kirk Brooks probably had no idea what he started 10 years when he put up a proposition wager on who would score more points that Super Bowl Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys or Michael Jordan.

Shortly after Brooks put up the prop at the tiny Holiday Inn Casino Boardwalk, fellow Las Vegas bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro copied the prop for his hotel, The Mirage. It wasn’t long then before the prop drew national attention with The Associated Press reporting on it.

The Cowboys beat the Steelers, 27-17, in Super Bowl XXX, while Jordan scored 31 that day against the Phoenix Suns. Ever since, bookmakers have been trying to out-do each coming up with off-the-wall Super Bowl props.

It’s no exception this year. Unless you think it’s normal to see props on if the king in the Burger King commercials will score a touchdown, courtesy of VIPsportsbookplayers.com, and what will be the first song sung by the Rolling Stones during their halftime performance. We can thank SportsInterAction.com for that one. My money won’t be on “Sympathy for the Devil.”

Why bang your head against the wall trying to determine if the Steelers are better than the Seahawks when sportsbooks like the Las Vegas Hilton have some 300 props available for wagering. Some books actually get more action on props than the side and total.

“Last year, we wrote approximately 60 percent on props and 40 percent on the game,” said Jay Kornegay, race and sports book director at the Hilton. “I would expect about the same this year.”

A record $90.7 million was wagered at Nevada sportsbooks last year on the Super Bowl, according to the state Gaming Control Board. Offshore books took in $450-$600 million on the game, according to estimates made by online analysts, Christian Capital Advisors.

So for a ballpark figure let’s say $650 million is bet on the Super Bowl combining Nevada and Internet books. We could then guess around $160 million of it will be on prop wagers that vary from which team wins the coin toss to which team draws the final penalty.

“The Super Bowl coin toss generates one of the highest volumes,” said Alex Czajkowski, marketing director for Sportsbook.com.

Nothing like losing money before the game even starts. Olympic sportsbook has four different coin toss props – heads or tails; who wins the coin toss; team to receive the opening kickoff and first team to kick off.

Another popular prop bet is which player scores the first touchdown with odds ranging from 4-1 on Shaun Alexander to 30-1 on Seattle backup tight end Ryan Hannam. There are props on all the starting skill position players and several of their backups, too.

At the Hilton you can bet if Jerome Bettis runs for over/under 2 ˝ yards on his first carry; if Seahawks’ wide receiver Joe Jurevicius’ first reception goes over/under 8 ˝ yards and if Steelers’ wide receiver Cedric Wilson’s first reception goes over/under 13 ˝ yards, assuming Wilson catches a pass.

Seahawks fullback Mack Strong carried the ball just 17 times this season, but he’s the subject of three props. The Hilton has an over/under of 2 ˝ yards on the longest run by Strong; an over/under of 5 ˝ yards on Strong’s first reception and an over/under of 13 ˝ yards on total rushing and receiving yards by Strong.

You can only imagine how many props there are featuring Alexander and the two starting quarterbacks, Matt Hasselbeck and Ben Roethlisberger.

It’s not just skill position players that are featured. Some books have over/under tackles and sacks from noted defensive players, including Troy Polamalu, Joey Porter, Lofa Tatupu and Michael Boulware. There are several props pitting Pittsburgh kicker Jeff Reed against Seattle kicker Josh Brown such as which one will kick the longest field goal.

Of course these props come with built-in juice such as laying $115 to win $100.

“We have always done well with our Super Bowl props,” Czajkowski said.

Ever since Brooks came up with his Cowboys vs. Jordan prop, some bookmakers have matched up other sports and athletes with those competing in the Super Bowl during that Sunday. This year NBA, college basketball, golf, soccer, hockey and even rugby are represented in Super Bowl props.

Here are a few taken from the Hilton:

Will Darrell Jackson have more receptions at -1 ˝ than Tiger Woods will have birdies during the fourth round of the Dubai Desert Classic?

Will the Steelers at -1 score more touchdowns than there will be goals in the Liverpool-Chelsea English Premier League soccer match?

Will Roethlisberger at +2 ˝ yards have more rushing yards than Tracy McGrady made free throws during the Rockets-Knicks NBA game?

Will the Seahawks at +1 ˝ have more first downs than Stephon Marbury points against the Rockets?

Will Willie Parker at +1 ˝ have more rushing attempts than Andrei Kirilenko points against the Kings?
I am on AK-47 here

Will Hines Ward at +1 ˝ have more receiving yards than Oklahoma points against Kansas?

Will the Steelers at +10 ˝ have more points than France-Scotland in the Six Nations Championship Rugby Union match?

Will Alexander have more receptions at + ˝ than Eric Staal of the Carolina Hurricanes have goals/assists?

So far, though, there hasn’t been a prop spotted like last year’s will there be a nude streaker running on the field during the Super Bowl? In this case nude isn’t redundant since that actually was a stipulation of the prop.

By the way, the Steelers at last look were 4-point favorites if anybody cares about the real pointspread.

JT
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Old 01-31-2006, 05:44 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Okay, it's late and I'm tired, so check the math before you pounce, but the props (specifically at Pinnacle) are out of whack IMO. Specifically the Yes/No on pointspread ranges or #'s 4101 - 4118.

Pit will win by...

1-3 pts +581
4-7 pts +565
8-13 pts +588
14-21 pts +565
>21.5 pts +654

A monkey can see that 5 - $100 wagers covers every possibility and generates a profit of $165 provided a Steeler win or it is effectively a money line of about +133. I worked backwards from the +565 and came up with this base $100.

1-3 pts $97.25
4-7 pts $100
8-13 pts $96.09
14-21 pts $100
>21.5 I would head over to Bet Jamaica and grab it at +800 with a 1 point overlay if you figure Pit has any chance of covering that. The overlay is on the 21.

Seattle is even a better ML than what books are offering on a straight bet

1-3 +776
4-7 +783
8-13 +1015
14-21 +1038
>21.5 Again, if you want to cover yourself, Bet Jamaica was the best line with a one point overlay at 21, +1500

One other note, Olympic had Pit 22 or more at +900, +100 more with no overlay at 21.

Pinnacle's max wager on these props is $2000, Olympic was a max at $500, and I didn't check Bet Jamaica.

Unless you need to get more than $8K on a ML, I don't see why anyone would take the posted straight wager ML's I have seen. Even the Seattle prop works out to a better ML. Oh, and before you waste your time, it is not a true arb, close, but not quite.

Last edited by Kutz : 02-01-2006 at 03:23 AM.
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Old 01-31-2006, 05:47 AM   #3 (permalink)
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You will find these props at Olympic #3369-3383 and BJ #541-554.
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Old 01-31-2006, 03:55 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Interesting but I don't know if I like any of the action simply because I can't seem to pick a winner out of these two. I don't have the foggiest idea who is going to come out on top.
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