Oddsmakers get it right with Steelers

[jtsneaks]

Any doubt that the AFC is regarded as vastly superior to the NFC was dispelled by the Super Bowl line.

Pittsburgh, a No. 6 seed, is -4 against Seattle, the NFC’s top seed.

“In my mind there’s at least five teams in the AFC – Indianapolis, Denver, Pittsburgh, New England and Cincinnati – who are better than Seattle on a neutral field,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

The Seahawks were in the process of dispatching the Panthers when bookmakers already started putting out their Super Bowl numbers. Any book that opened Pittsburgh -3 quickly went to 3 ½ and then, in some cases, up to 4.

The Stardust and Las Vegas Hilton hotels each opened the Steelers -4. That was the number recommended by Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

“With the fact of Pittsburgh winning at the Colts and at Denver, along with the perception of the AFC having been the better conference all season, I expect more Pittsburgh money and the line to creep upwards,” said Jeff Sherman, assistant race and sports book manager at the Hilton.

Bob Scucci, race and sports book director at the Stardust, agreed.

“We felt the number should be at least 4,” Scucci said during the Monday morning broadcast of the Stardust Line radio show. “… Right now it’s all Steelers money and under (the total) as far as the early betting.

“I could see it going up. There’s so much more of a fan base with Pittsburgh.”

By mid-week, if not sooner, the game could be painted 4. There were 3 ½’s out there Monday, but they seemed to be drying up fast.

“If I were a book, I would put it at 4 and not move it until game day,” said professional gambler and oddsmaker Dave Malinsky.

Often times a Super Bowl number moves within the first
24 hours and then stays put until the final two days.
That could be the case again this year. If there is movement, most likely it would be Pittsburgh being bet up.

And why not? If it weren’t for a Jerome Bettis fumble near the goal line against Indy, the Steelers could have won all three of their playoff road games by double-digits against the Bengals, Colts and Broncos.
Talk about awe inspiring.

“Where is Seattle’s big road wins?” asked Malinsky.

There are none. The Seahawks were lights out at home going unbeaten. But were 5-3 away from Seattle with losses to the Jaguars, Redskins and Packers in a meaningless regular-season finale when the Seahawks rested starters.

The Seahawks’ road wins came against the Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Titans and an injury-depleted Eagles club.
They struggled to beat the 49ers and Titans. During the regular season, the Seahawks did not beat a team above .500.

“The only reason the Steelers were a sixth-seed was because they lost games when (Ben) Roethlisberger was hurt,” Seba said. “So their being a sixth-seed is somewhat misleading.”

It wasn’t misleading to oddsmakers and bookmakers, though. They know how good Pittsburgh is compared to Seattle.

“Pittsburgh was a lot more impressive in its victory even though Seattle won a lopsided game,” Scucci said.


Let’s face facts. Washington and Carolina aren’t in the class of Indianapolis and Denver. Yes the Seahawks are extremely tough at home. But neither the Redskins nor the Panthers brought anything close to their “A”
game against the Seahawks.

The consensus over/under number is 47. Some places, including the Hilton and Stardust, opened 48. LVSC’s send-out number on the total was 49.

Based on a pure handicapping number, Seba admitted the over/under number should be 45 or 46. However, LVSC anticipates the public to bet the over, especially during the final hours leading up to the game.

So far early money has been on the under with the number flattened out at 47.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if people bet it over,” Seba said.

For now, though, 4 and 47 seem to be the right figures. Those numbers just could stay put for quite a while.


JT Sneaks