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Setting the backdrop before the picks...
In the 34 years of conference championship games since 1970, 61 of 68 SU winners have also been the ATS winner in those games! So maybe the EASIEST way to determine the point spread winner for Sunday's games is to just go with the team you expect to win. I repeat, 90% of the SU winners cover the spread since 1970! Okay say that makes it easier, right? Maybe not.
Philadelphia -5 over Atlanta (Single Play)
Philadelphia of course, has lost three straight NFC Championship Games, getting outscored 41-13 the last two years at home. Philadelphia wide receivers have caught a total of just 12 passes (with one TD) over three straight title-game appearances. The addition of Terrell Owens was supposed to change all of that but his injury in Week 15 leaves the Eagles. Historically, home teams have gone 45-23 SU in the 34 years of conference title games since the 1970 merger. They are 38-28-2 ATS, with home favorites going 31-21-2. So based on that fact we lean to Philly slightly. Lets dig deeper...
Philadelphia and Atlanta had 2 common oppoenents this year, Carolina and NY Giants. Atlanta faced Carolina on 12/18/2004 as a 3˝ favorite and won 34-31, so they did not cover. Against the New York Giants on 11/21/2004 they were favored by 3 and won 14-10 to barely cover. Total Points for Atlanta 48, 2 opponents 41.
Now lets look at the Philadelphia Eagles . Against the Carolina Panthers on10/17/2004 they were favored by 10 and won 30-8 to cover.
Philly traveled to New York on 11/28/2004 only one week after Atlanta did as a 7 point favorite and won 27-6 to Cover.
Total Points 57 to their opponents 14.
The bottom line is that the Eagles will be able to throw the ball on the 22nd ranked pas defense of the Atlanta Flacons even without TO. Westbrook will catch passes out of the backfield and be able to run for over 100 yards. The Falcons had great success vs. the Rams, but the Rams run defense is nothing like the Eagles defense. BUT...Atlanta hasn't proved it can mix it up enough to beat the Eagles. Philly has taken three straight in the series, most recently 23-16 last year in Atlanta, but its experience in four straight conference title games will be the key.
Key Stats:
PHILADELPHIA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a
good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season
since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA since 1992
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
Philadelphia has the second stingiest defence in the league at 16.3 per game.
Philadelphia are 6-3-0 ATS in their last 9 home games
Philadelphia are 4-2-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against Atlanta
Philadelphia are 5-0-0 SU in their last 5 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Philadelphia are 10-1-0 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Philadelphia are 10-1-0 SU in their last 11 games after being 7.5 to 10 point favorites
Philadelphia are 6-3-0 ATS in their last 9 games after being 7.5 to 10 point favorites
Atlanta/Philadelphia Under 40 (Double Play)
Back in November of 2003 these teams squared off in Atlanta and the final score was 23-16 Philadelphia. This game will have a similar score or maybe lower score since snow will be moving in on Satrday and the field will be slick. This game will be a line em' up smash mouth game where both teams have to run the ball. The Eagles only average 14 ppg since losing Terrell Owens and Atlanta has a tough time scoring on the road as they average only 19 ppg on the year. The Eagles will play tight in this game as they are now trying to get the monkey off their back after multiple failures in this game. The under is our strongest play in this game. Jump on the line early as we expect it to go down. Check out these 13 strong trends favoring the under.
Key Stats:
1) Atlanta is 8-18-0 OU in their last 26 games
2) Atlanta is 5-14-0 OU in their last 19 away
3) Atlanta is 1-4-0 OU in their last 5 games against Philadelphia
4) Atlanta is 6-11 on the year favoring the under
5) Atlanta is 10-16 favoring the under the last 3 seasons where the OU line is set between 35 & 42
6) Atlanta is 3-5 favoring the under in road games this year
7) Philadelphia is 1-4-0 OU in their last 5 games
8 ) Philadelphia is 2-6-0 OU in their last 8 at home
9 ) Philadelphia has the second stingiest defence in the league at 16.3 per game
10 )Philadelphia is 3-11 O/U vs. conference opponents
11) Philadelphia is 3-8 favoring the under when playin with 6 days or less of rest
12) Philadelphia is 5-11 favoring the under on the year
13) Philadelphia is 2-6 favoring the under when the line is between 35 & 42
Patriots -2.5 over Pittsburg (Single Play)
On October 31, 2004 at Pittsburgh Rookie Ben Roethlisberger connected with Plaxico Burress on a pair of touchdown passes and Deshea Townsend returned an interception 39 yards for a score in a 21-point first quarter as the Steelers posted a 34-20 victory. Duce Staley rushed for 125 yards on 25 carries and Jerome Bettis added 65 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Tom Brady hit David Givens with a pair of touchdowns, but committed three turnovers - two interceptions and a fumble for New England. That seems very un-Brady like to us. Here is a stat that is almost unbelievable. Under Bill Bellicheck the Patriots are 13-0 when facing a team for the second time after suffering a defeat to them previously. WOW.
In Bill Cowhers 11 years as head coach of the Pittsburg Steelers he has been here in the championship game 4 times. He is 0-4 ATS in these games and 1-3 SU. All of these game were at home. While home teams have a fairly solid record overall since 1970, that HASN'T been the case recently. Since 1990, home teams have gone just 8-6 SU in each conference for a combined 16-12 mark, going an unimpressive 12-16 ATS. Let's Face it, we know and the Pats know that the Steelers are going to line up and try to pound the ball out against them. So if the Pats can stop the run and mix up the Rook with packages they have a chance. This should be the Jets sitting here, and not the Steelers.
Key Stats:
-Home dogs since 1990 are 1-3 ATS and SU.
-NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) vs. good defensive teams who
give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average
score was NEW ENGLAND 21.0, OPPONENT 8
-NEW ENGLAND is 16-1 against the MONEY LINE (+16.2 Units) after 3
or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.2, OPPONENT 14.6
Patriots are 10-3 ATS as favorites
Patriots are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
Patriots are 4-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3
We only have an opinion on the Over/Under in this game. We are favoring the over as the line is now at 34.5. These teams have good enough offenses to pull this to the over.
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