[jtsneaks]

a good read

Teasers in the NFL Playoffs: Good Bet or Bad?

I don’t tease games in the NFL playoffs. As we’ve seen throughout the playoffs again this year, playoff games have a higher variance from the pointspread compared to regular season games. None of the four losing teams in the Wild Card round covered the pointspread, or the teaser pointspread. Tampa, Jacksonville, New York and Cinci all lost by more than a touchdown against the spread. It was a similar story last week, as the Bears, Colts and Patriots all failed to cover even on a teaser spread – only the Redskins were turned from a loser or a push into a winner with the extra six points.


This is not uncommon at this time of the year. In 2004, the Wild Card round saw the same 0-4 ATS mark for losing teams, even with an extra touchdown.


In 2003, two of the four losing ATS teams covered the teaser line, while we saw one underdog lose the game in spread covering fashion (Seattle), making their opponent, Green Bay, good on teasers.


In 2002, we also had two winning teams fail to cover the spread (Pittsburgh against Cleveland and the 49ers against the Giants), but both were good on the teaser line.


2001? All four winners covered the pointspread, all four losers were losers even with an extra six points, although San Francisco covered on a seven point teaser at Green Bay, as 3.5 point underdogs in a 25-15 loss.


In 2000, all four winners covered the pointspread, and none of the four losers would have cashed a ticket even with an extra touchdown.


So, over a six year span, we get some clear results for the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs here in the 21st century. The team that won covered the pointspread at a 21-3 clip (87.5%). Pick the straight up winner and you’ll pick the ATS winner, it’s just that simple. An extra six points really don’t make much of a difference.


The results don’t lie. Teasers need to improve your winning percentage from 52.4% (the break even point for straight bets at -110 juice) to 66.7% (the break even point for teaser bets) in order to prove profitable. Yet teaser bettors found that only four of the 24 teams that lost in the Wild Card round over the last six years benefited from the extra six points; just five of the 24 teams benefited if you laid the extra juice required for a seven point teaser.


Teasers aren’t any good in the Divisional Playoff round as well. It certainly makes sense – the rested home teams are the #1 and #2 seeds, the best teams in the league all season. Their opponents were forced to play a tough playoff game last week, many times on the road. The underdogs that cover the spread in these games (and the spreads in the second week of the playoffs are usually higher than the spreads in the Wild Card round), tend to be the playoff surprises, and they tend to win the game outright. The home favorites that cover in this round tend to win in blowout fashion. Put the two factors together and you can see why teasers generally provide poor results at this time of the year.


In the Divisional round of the playoffs last year, three of the four winners won by 13 points or more. 2003 was an odd year that saw all four games decided by a touchdown or less, but 2002, 2001 and 2000 each saw only one game decided by less than two touchdowns. It’s blowout city time, folks, and blowouts are the antithesis of what teaser bettors are looking for.


Six point teaser bettors covered only one of the four Divisional Round games last year, with the Steelers pushing against the teaser line, winning by three as nine point favorites. 2003, the ‘exception to the rule’ year saw teaser bettors cash on only two of the four ATS losers – despite the close results, the underdogs won two of the four games outright, leaving those who teased the Rams from -7 down to -1 against the Panthers and those who teased the Chiefs from -3 to +3 against the Colts banging their heads against the wall in dismay.


2002? One teaser mattered, as the Titans beat the Steelers by three in overtime, laying four points. 2001? Only the Raiders covered on the teaser line at New England, in the infamous ‘tuck rule’ overtime game. 2000? The Eagles got the push on the six point teaser in their ten point loss to the Giants as four point underdogs.


Put all the results together and we find that the teasers in the Divisional Round produced only above in the Wild Card Round.


There are only three games left in the NFL season: the conference championship games this weekend and the Super Bowl two weeks from Sunday. One might think that the linesmakers are so confident in their numbers, and so familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the teams involved that these games often fall right around the pointspread, making teasers a very profitable play. In fact, that is not the case at all.


In fact, the opposite is true. Conference championship games historically have been littered with blowouts. The peaking teams play extremely well; the losing teams often seem to run out of steam only 60 minutes from a Super Bowl appearance.


There has not been a single conference championship game decided by a single digit margin in the last three years. All the winning teams won by ten points or more: Philly by 17 and New England by 14 last year; New England by 10 and Carolina by 11 in 2003; Tampa Bay by 17 and Oakland by 17 in 2002. The straight up loser was the ATS loser in every one of those games, and an additional six points made absolutely no difference to the outcome.


In 2001, both games were relatively close, with the Patriots winning by 7 at Pittsburgh and St Louis winning by 5 against Philly. But New England was the underdog in that game, and the Rams were double digit favorites. Even final scores that were closer did not produce teaser wins, although those who teased St Louis down from -11 to -5 probably got the push. In 2000, blowouts were once again the norm, as the Giants beat the Vikings by 41 and the Ravens beat the Raiders by 13. Both straight up winners were underdogs; teaser bettors were not rewarded at all.


So, here in the 21st century, teaser bettors have not cashed a single ticket on the ten championship games, getting only a single push back in 2001. Tight lines that get two way action from the bettors are not an indicators that the games are going to finish close to the number. Betting teasers in conference championship games has been nothing short of a disaster, 0-9-1 over the last five years. I urge you to avoid teaser bets this weekend.














JT

[BangTheBook]

Good stuff JT