NFL Playoffs
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the public will be heavily on one side. The amount of “sharp money” buying back the shaded lines is dwarfed by “public money”.
We anticipate Carolina to be the most “lopsided-bet” game of the weekend.
NFL Playoff Edition – Games to Watch
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off an improbable win over the heavily favored Indianapolis Colts. Nobody – and I do mean nobody – (unless you happen to live in Pittsburgh) thought the Steelers had a chance…and that’s, of course, why they play the games. The Steelers now attempt to be the first team to win three straight road playoff games.
The Denver Broncos benefited from five New England turnovers and some “phantom” calls to put away the two time defending Super Bowl champs. The Denver Broncos will be looking to capitalize on their home-field dominance as they attempt to extend their 8- game home winning steak.
The point spread market opened at Denver -3 at all sportsbooks. The line has sat there all week. The line managers at Oasis, 5Dimes, and Bowmans reported taking heavy two-way “Sharp” money. The Public, on the other hand, has sided with the Steelers who have received a little north of 60% of the bets placed on this game.
I believe the Steelers’ bubble is about to burst. I like Denver playing at home in Mile High. It’s going to be a “grind-it-out-smash-mouth” game but I believe Denver has more weapons on offense and should be able to move the ball.
Denver -3
Carolina Panther vs Seattle Seahawks
Carolina looked impressive against Chicago on way to their second straight road playoff game. Carolina, like Pittsburgh, will attempt to be the first playoff team to win three straight games on the road.
Pinnacle opened at Seattle -6 but took a lot of early “Sharp” money on Carolina that forced the line down to Seattle -3.5. Oasis and 5Dimes report taking a lot of two-way “Sharp” money at -3.5.
Deshaun Foster is out of the lineup and this will hurt Carolina’s reliable run game. Seattle has wiped off the rust and worked through the playoff jitters in last week’s win over the Washington Redskins. I believe this weekend Seattle puts it in high gear – sending Carolina packing for home.
Seattle -3
Sneaks
Where is the money going? 
Linear Mode
