NFL Conference Championship Notes

[jtsneaks]

NFL Conference Championship Notes

Make no bones about it. There are going to be two very good football games on Sunday. Pittsburgh makes the trek to Mile High Country to take on Denver while Carolina takes its road show to the wet Northwest to tackle Seattle. The Steelers and Panthers are both road road warriors and they'll need to bring their "A-Game" because the Broncos and Seahawks can flat out play at home. In case you haven't noticed, Denver and Seattle are undefeated in their own backyards in 2005 posting a combined 18-0 straight up record (13-4-1 ATS).


As impressive as that last record looks, Pitt and Caro won't be intimidated. That's because the Steelers and Panthers are two of the best road teams in the league. Technically speaking, Pittsburgh is a tremendous 19-8-1 ATS in its last 28 games priced as a road pup while Carolina owns an eye-popping 21-5 ATS record in its last 26 as a road underdog.


According to my powerful NFL Database, Conference Championship hosts have produced a respectable 33-17 SU and 28-22 ATS record over the past 25 seasons. Within that set of 50 games, there are a variety of tighteners you can look at that make things look better (or worse) for the host. Here are just a couple.


If our NFL Conference Championship host checks in with momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, this situation improves to a solid 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS. Of course, it should be noted that hosts in this set are just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS since 1999! There is only one team that fits this special tightener on Sunday - Denver.


If our Championship home team is matched up against an opponent that enters off back-to-back road games, this system tightens up to a solid 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Both the Broncos and Seahawks apply.


Even though this doesn't play a factor this weekend, favorites of -9.5 or more in this round of the playoffs are a dismal 4-8 ATS.


If we flip this situation around and look at it from the road team's perspective, there is one situation that stands out. If our Conference Championship guest is entering off a strong offensive performance in which it scored 28 points or more, the visitor is a wallet-breaking 5-18 SU and 6-17 ATS. Carolina applies this week off its 29-point outburst at Chicago. For future reference, please note that the road team is a shocking 0-10 ATS in this situation if they enter off a 35-point (or more) performance.



JT Sneaks