Washington:
7-1 ATS in January
6-0 Under revenging a loss of 3 points or less
Tampa Bay:
0-6 ATS off BB wins
6-0 Under at home off BB wins
The first of four intriguing Wildcard matchups features a pair of teams that few, if any, experts had predicted to make it to the NFL’s second season, as the Washington Redskins travel down the coast to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers in what should prove to be a hotly contested NFC Wildcard battle. It was a season of redemption, not only for both team’s respective coaches, but for the respective franchises as a whole. The Redskins and Buccaneers each enter the playoffs on winning streaks, so neither team can really claim that they have more momentum that their opponent. However, the Bucs can boast over a 36-35 victory over the ‘Skins back in November. Whether or not Tampa Bay can turn the trick twice, especially with an inexperienced quarterback at the helm in the playoffs, remains to be seen. The oddsmakers certainly see this as a tough game, listing Tampa Bay as a small 2.5-point home favorite.
While neither of these teams have participated in the NFL playoffs recently (Washington since 1999, TB since 2002), both coaches are very familiar with playoff success. Washington’s Joe Gibbs proved this season that he still could lead a team in today’s NFL, after last year’s disappointing return to the sidelines (6-10 SU). Of course, Gibbs won 3 Super Bowl titles with Washington during his first tenure of the team, so he is more than battle tested. However, the Hall of Famer hasn’t won a Playoff game since the 1991-92 season, so in the eyes of some, he still has something to prove. On the other sideline, Jon Gruden has also won a Super Bowl with his current team (back in 02-03 over his former team, Oakland), but the Buccaneers failed to qualify for the postseason in back-to-back seasons following the World Championship.
As mentioned above, these teams met back on 11/13 with Tampa Bay prevailing, 36-35, in what was a shootout between a pair of clubs usually noted for defensive prowess. The game came down to a wild finish, where Washington had a 35-34 lead and had blocked a potentially game-tying extra-point, but an offside penalty gave the Bucs a second-shot. With the ball now at the 1-yard line and just: 58 seconds left on the clock, coach Gruden couldn’t resist going for the win, especially with FB Mike Alstott at his disposal. The gamble paid off, as Alstott converted the two-point play, and Tampa Bay grabbed the cash as 1.5-point home ‘dogs. QB Chris Simms played one of his best games of the season in the win, throwing for 279 yards and three scores. The victory was also Simms’ first in his career in a game where he both started and finished. Resurgent wideout Joey Galloway hauled in 131 of those yards for the Buccaneers, who are 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) at home this season. For Washington, Clinton Portis ran for an admirable 144 yards in the loss. Take note that the Redskins are just 3-12 ATS playing with revenge for a loss where the opposition scored 35 or more points.
Ironically enough, it was the Buccaneers who eliminated the Redskins in Washington’s last playoff appearance. Tampa won a close 14-13 battle on their homefield that day, on their way to an eventual NFC Championship Game loss to St. Louis. That playoff appearance for the Redskins, which also included a 27-13 victory over Detroit in the Wildcard Round, marked the lone postseason experience for Washington since 1993. They were able to cash in the loss to the Bucs, as a 5.5-point underdog.
Tampa Bay has consistently gotten the better of Washington in recent years, especially at home where they own a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark vs. the ‘Skins. Overall, TB is 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS versus Washington since 1992.
Washington (10-6 SU and ATS) was one of several surprise entrants in the NFC Playoff field. This is a team that gets it done with defense (18.3 PPG) and running the ball (136 YPG). The Redskins began turning heads right from the start this season, jumping out to a 3-0 start, including a pair of wins over Seattle and Chicago. However, back-to-back road losses to Denver and Kansas City brought Redskins backers down to Earth. A 52-17 win over San Francisco got things back on track, but a 36-0 loss to the Giants put the team back right where they were. However, a 17-10 win over division rival Philadelphia completed a 5-3 SU and ATS first half of the season. Then, starting with the aforementioned Tampa Bay loss things took a severe turn for the worse, as the ‘Skins dropped three consecutive games on the field and at the betting window, including an embarrassing home setback to Oakland (other loss also at home vs. San Diego).
Staring at a second-half collapse, Coach Gibbs was able to right the ship, and as a result his team hasn’t lost since. Washington closed the season on a remarkable run, winning and cashing in each of their final five contests. Three of the victories came away from home, where the team went 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS in ’05. St. Louis was the first victim (24-9, -3.5), then Arizona (17-13, -3.5), then Dallas (35-7, +1). The Redskins then completed a clean sweep of their division rivals by besting the first-place Giants, 35-20 (-3.5) and in the season finale; a late surge over Philadelphia got the team into the playoffs (31-20, -7.5).
Washington earned a split at the betting window this season as an underdog, going 3-3 ATS. That includes a pair of outright wins, both coming at the expense of Dallas. Back in Week 2, a miracle 4th quarter comeback, gave the ‘Skins a 14-13 win and then they crushed the ‘Boys in the rematch as mentioned above. As a road ‘dog, the team went 2-2 ATS, also earning a cover at Denver back in Week 4 (+7) in a 21-19 loss.
Turnovers and rushing differential have been the key for Washington’s win streak, as the Redskins have run the ball for 150+ yards in four of those victories, while limiting the opposition to 100 yards or less also in four games. In the turnover department, Washington was a very strong +11 in their final five games, having forced 17 takeaways.
Washington Quarterback Mark Brunell is a leading contender for Comeback Player of the Year, after a regular season where he threw for 3050 yards and 23 touchdowns. However, Brunell has not topped the 200-yard passing plateau in any of his last seven games.
Tampa Bay (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS), much like Washington, came from nowhere to make the playoffs. Coming off a 5-11 ’04 campaign, Gruden got himself off the hot seat, by leading the Buccaneers to a division title in a tough NFC South, besting preseason favorites Atlanta and Carolina. A hot start was crucial for the ‘Bucs, who got off to a 5-1 SU start. The only loss was to the Jets of all teams, by a score of 14-12, as a two-point choice. However, as their 8-8 ATS mark proves, Tampa can’t always cover the number in a victory, as they endured a three-game ATS slide during the hot start, failing to cover against Green Bay, Detroit, as well as the Jets. Speaking of bad losses, no loss proved to be more embarrassing than a 15-10 setback to San Francisco as a double-digit road favorite. The following week, things continued to get worse for Tampa in a 34-14 home loss to Carolina.
However, much like Washington, Tampa turned it on down the stretch, winning six of its final eight contests. The last-minute win over Washington was the catalyst for the Bucs, who also went 5-3 ATS down the stretch, including a 3-1 ATS mark at home. Tampa has lost just one time over the course of the last month, and that defeat came at the hands of the Patriots in Foxboro (28-0, +6). As did Washington, Tampa dominated their division foes late in the season. Five of the Bucs last six wins have come at the expense of their NFC South brethren.
When laying the points this season, Tampa Bay went just 4-6 ATS, including three outright losses (Jets, Niners, and Bears). The team’s hot finish may not work to their advantage, as the Buccaneers are just 1-8 ATS coming off a win by two touchdowns or more, and 0-6 ATS coming off BB wins.
The Buccaneers have an outstanding defense of their own, ranking amongst the league’s best units. They surrender an average of just 17.1 PPG and 278 yards per contest.
Rookie of the Year candidate RB Cadillac Williams, who ran for 1178 yards and 6 TD’s, paces the Tampa Bay offense attack.
The total for this contest currently sits at 37, which would seem to be a good thing for Washington, as we find the Redskins are 7-0 ATS this season when the total falls between 35.5 and 42. The Under might also seem to be a strong play as Washington is 6-0 Under playing with revenge for a loss by 3 or less, and Tampa is 6-0 Under at home off BB wins.
JT
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