[CNOTES]

New England at New Orleans
When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, November 30, 2009
Where: Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

(Sports Network) - The NFL's two best offenses figure to dazzle and delight fans at the Louisiana Superdome on Monday night, as the New Orleans Saints put their unbeaten record on the line against the New England Patriots in a possible Super Bowl preview.

The Saints, who moved to 10-0 for the first time in their history with a 38-7 rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday, carry the NFL's No. 1 attack (420.5 yards per game) into Monday's contest.

An offense led by quarterback Drew Brees, who entered Week 12 as the league leader in touchdown passes with 22, is scoring at a league-best 36.9 point-per game clip and is also tops in the NFL in touchdowns scored (48) and rushing touchdowns (18).

The Saints are on pace to score 590 points before 2009 draws to a close, which would better the current mark of 589, set just two seasons ago by none other than the New England Patriots.

And though this group of Patriots hasn't lit up the scoreboard at the same rate that the '07 team did during its 16-0 regular season, New England will present an offense on Monday night that compares favorably to its NFC counterpart.

The Patriots rank second in NFL total offense (416.1 yards per game), fewer than five yards per game less than the Saints, and has averaged 37.2 points over its past five outings.

Signal-caller Tom Brady, who has rounded back into form after a serious injury ended his 2008 season in Week 1, has gone over 300 passing yards in each of his past five games, and has tossed 14 touchdowns passes to just four interceptions over that span.

In last week's 31-14 win over the New York Jets, which kept Bill Belichick's squad two games ahead of the posse in the AFC East, Brady was 28-of-41 for 310 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, and more than half of the four- time Pro Bowler's completions went to one player.

As the Jets concentrated on trying to stop Randy Moss, Brady connected with Wes Welker for 15 completions covering 192 yards in the contest. Despite missing two games due to injury earlier this season, Welker assumed the league lead in receptions (79) with the career-best performance.

The main danger for Brady and the New England offense on Monday night is the quality of the defense it will be facing.

The Saints entered Week 12 ranked No. 1 in the NFL in opponents' completion percentage (53.2), takeaways (29), defensive touchdowns (7), interceptions (20) and interception returns for TDs (5).

New Orleans' defensive effort, guided by first-year coordinator Gregg Williams, has been led by opportunistic safety Darren Sharper. Sharper, who returned to the lineup last week after being sidelined for one game by a knee problem, leads the league in interception return yards (317) and interception returns for touchdowns (3).

The Saints further bolstered the secondary by re-signing cornerback Mike McKenzie earlier this week. McKenzie, who appeared in 63 games as a Saint from 2004 to 2008, was inked just a week after the team signed veteran ex-Baltimore Ravens cornerback Chris McAlister.

SERIES HISTORY

New England has a 8-3 lead in its all-time series against New Orleans, and was a 24-17 home winner when the teams last met, in 2005. The Patriots were 30-27 winners when they last played the Saints at the Superdome, in 1998, and are 4-0 in series road games all-time. The Saints have lost three straight to the Patriots since a 31-17 road win during the 1995 season.

New England is 5-2 all-time at the Superdome, including a win over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, and with the losses coming in Super Bowls XXXI (vs. Green Bay) and XX (vs. Chicago).

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 3-0 in his career against the Saints, including a win while at the helm of the Cleveland Browns in 1993. New Orleans' Sean Payton will be meeting both Belichick and the Patriots for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

Brady (3049 passing yards, 20 TD, 6 INT) has been outstanding of late, finding both Moss (63 receptions, 8 TD) and Welker (79 receptions, 4 TD) with frequency and leading an offense that has become increasingly difficult to slow. Though Moss was held to just five catches for 34 yards against the Jets last week, he also scored his seventh touchdown in four weeks on a four-yard catch in the first quarter, and is now just 75 yards shy of his 10th career 1,000-yard season, and third straight with the Patriots. Welker has been a wonder as well, averaging more than 10 receptions and well over 100 yards per game over his last six outings. Running back Kevin Faulk (29 receptions, 1 TD, 192 rushing yards) and wideout Julian Edelman (26 receptions, 1 TD) have also been involved in the passing game in recent weeks. In the backfield, Laurence Maroney (455 rushing yards, 6 TD) has taken advantage of injuries to Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris over the past month-plus, scoring a touchdown in each of his last five games. Maroney posted season-highs with 22 carries and two touchdowns last week, amassing 77 yards on the ground against the Jets. Morris (knee) is questionable to return after missing the last five games. The New England offensive line has allowed a modest 14 sacks on the year, including two last week.

Williams, the Saints' defensive coordinator, has a major challenge on his hands both because of the strength of the Patriots attack and the battered state of his own defense. Cornerback Tracy Porter (knee) remains out, former Patriots CB Randall Gay (hamstring) is questionable after being hurt against the Buccaneers last week, and corner Jabari Greer (groin) has missed the last two weeks but is expected to play. The injury situation could put extra pressure on the undoubtedly rusty McKenzie and McAlister, with both expected to be active on Monday, as well as safeties Sharper (40 tackles, 7 INT) and Roman Harper (68 tackles, 1.5 sacks). The Saints pass rush, led by ends Will Smith (28 tackles, 8.5 sacks) and Charles Grant (28 tackles, 4.5 sacks), will seek to pressure Brady and make life easier for its secondary. The Saints' defensive Achilles' heel has been its run defense, which ranks just 20th in the league (115.7 yards per game) and allowed 119 yards on the ground to the Buccaneers last week. The good news on that front is that former first-round defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (15 tackles, 1 sack), who has missed four games with a knee injury, could return Monday. Ellis could join a run-stopping group that has been led by linebackers Jonathan Vilma (68 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Scott Shanle (54 tackles, 2 INT), along with surprising DT Anthony Hargrove (29 tackles, 3 sacks).

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

After playing the weak defenses of the Rams and Buccaneers over the past two weeks, Brees (2746 passing yards, 22 TD, 9 INT) and the New Orleans offense will face a decided step-up in challenge on Monday. Brees, an NFL offensive player of the year candidate, has had to put the ball in the air fewer than 30 times in each of the team's past two wins, but has been a relatively crisp 37- of-55 for 410 yards, five touchdowns, and two INTs over that span. Wideouts Marques Colston (44 receptions, 6 TD) and Robert Meachem (16 receptions, 6 TD) were both heavily involved in the win over the Bucs, with Colston's five catches for 74 yards leading the team and Meachem making both of his grabs count for touchdowns. Also making an impact was tight end David Thomas (16 receptions, 1 TD), the ex-Patriot who will be facing his former team for the first time on Monday. Thomas, who has posted his best two receiving days of the year over the past two games and taken a lot of the attention away from Jeremy Shockey (39 receptions, 3 TD), caught four balls for 66 yards and a touchdown in Tampa. Wideout Devery Henderson (31 receptions, 1 TD) should also be part of the gameplan on Monday after logging just one catch against the Bucs. In the backfield, the Saints have used Reggie Bush (277 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 6 TD), Pierre Thomas (584 rushing yards, 17 receptions, 6 TD), and Mike Bell (514 rushing yards, 4 TD) almost interchangeably in recent weeks. With Bush nursing a knee injury last Sunday, Thomas and Bell combined for 24 carries, 167 yards and two touchdowns (both by Bell) in the victory. Brees has been sacked just 13 times all year.

It figures to be all hands on deck for the Patriots secondary on Monday night, which means cornerbacks Leigh Bodden (37 tackles, 5 INT), Jonathan Wilhite (24 tackles, 1 INT), and Darius Butler (20 tackles, 2 INT) should also see plenty of activity, as will safeties Brandon Meriweather (49 tackles, 3 INT) and Brandon McGowan (63 tackles). Bodden was among the stars of last week's win over the Jets, intercepting rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez three times. Meriweather also posted an INT in the contest, and outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (33 tackles, 5 sacks) led the pass rush with two sacks and a forced fumble. After surrendering just 136 passing yards in the game, New England improved to sixth in NFL passing defense (187.3 yards per game). The team is 14th in the league against the run (109.4 yards per game), with nose tackle Vince Wilfork (30 tackles) and end Ty Warren (37 tackles, 1 sack) leading the charge up front, and inside linebackers Jerod Mayo (45 tackles, 1 sack) and Gary Guyton (56 tackles) cleaning up much of the mess behind them. Wilfork and Warren combined for 11 tackles against the Jets last week, while Mayo and Guyton posted six stops each.

FANTASY FOCUS

It's probably safe to say that this contest will settle a great number of contests all over fantasy nation, and there's little reason to hold back in using any of the Patriots or Saints principles, with the exception of both defenses, which need to take a seat here if possible.

The Patriots' main group of Brady, Moss, and Welker, and kicker Stephen Gostkowski will all contribute, and unless there are clear indications that Sammy Morris will return this week and be a factor, Maroney is a solid play as well.

On the New Orleans side, Brees, Colston and Shockey should all get plenty of work, and though they're a bit riskier, Bush, Pierre Thomas and Meachem are worthwhile starts as well. Bell and tight end David Thomas come off big weeks in Tampa Bay, but neither is likely to replicate their total against a quality New England team.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Although they're well aware of the challenge that the New England Patriots present, it is highly possible that the Saints will experience something of an adjustment period on Monday night. After playing the hapless likes of the Rams and Buccaneers the past two weeks, the notion of suddenly defending Brady, Moss, and Welker could offer a little shock to the New Orleans system, and how quickly the Saints adjust will determine whether the team can move to 11-0. The guess here is that the game of catch-up will be too unusual, and too challenging for New Orleans to withstand, and that New England - which needs this game more - will keep its foot on the gas in a way that the team couldn't in Indianapolis a couple of weeks back.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Patriots 31, Saints 23

[CNOTES]

NOVEMBER 30, 8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
# New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
# New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

# New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
# New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing New England

[CNOTES]

MNF - Patriots at Saints

The undefeated New Orleans Saints will receive their toughest test of the season in front of the Monday Night nation, hosting the Patriots. These two clubs are a combined 17-3 on the season, as the Saints try to move closer towards locking up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Sean Payton's squad has been the story of the NFL this season, breaking out to the best start in franchise history at 10-0. The Saints own the most prolific offense in the league, averaging 420.5 yards/game, while lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 36.9 ppg. The oddsmakers have adjusted to New Orleans' scoring prowess, making the Saints a double-digit favorite in each of the last four games. However, the Saints have covered just one of the contests, coming this past Sunday at Tampa Bay, blowing out the Bucs, 31-7, as 10 ½-point road 'chalk.'

New Orleans has been money this season as a single-digit favorite, compiling a 5-0 SU/ATS when laying less than nine points. Breaking that down further, that record may be a bit deceiving. No question it is tough to win on the road in the NFL, but three of those victories came at Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Miami.

The 48-22 victory in Week 2 at Philadelphia was impressive, but it did come against Eagles backup QB Kevin Kolb, as Donovan McNabb was out with bruised ribs. The following week, the Saints trampled the Bills, 27-7, as Terrell Owens was held without a catch, while the Bills' lone touchdown came on a fake field goal. Probably the most eye-opening win came at Miami in Week 7 as the Saints rallied from a 24-3 deficit to shock the Dolphins, 46-34, while shocking New Orleans backers who cashed as six-point road favorites.

The Saints are led by Drew Brees and his 22 touchdown tosses, but amazingly, New Orleans has a balanced offensive attack. Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush have combined for 14 rushing touchdowns, while the Saints rank fifth in the league on the ground, averaging 154.3 yards/game.

The Patriots are one of four AFC teams with seven victories (Broncos at 7-4 with Thursday victory over Giants), as the second seed in the conference is still up for grabs. New England has just about finished its home schedule, winning all six games at Gillette Stadium. The road, on the other hand, hasn't been as kind to Bill Belichick's team. The Pats are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS away from Foxboro, and that lone win didn't even come in this country, as New England blasted Tampa Bay in London, 35-7.

In all fairness, the last two losses on the road were games that the Patriots gave away. Back in Week 5 at Denver, the Pats squandered a 17-7 halftime lead, as the Broncos rallied for a 20-17 overtime victory in their brown and yellow throwback uniforms. Fast forward to Week 10 at Indianapolis, the fourth down call heard 'round the world, as Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2 from the Patriots' 28 and failed. Peyton Manning led the Colts down for the go-ahead touchdown and kept Indianapolis unbeaten with a 35-34 shocker.

Earlier it was mentioned that the Saints own the top offense in the league. Nipping on New Orleans' heels is New England, as the Pats are averaging 416.1 yards/game, which ranks second in the NFL. Tom Brady is currently one of three quarterbacks that have amassed over 3,000 yards this season, with Manning and Aaron Rodgers just ahead of Brady.

Those numbers haven't translated into large totals for New England, as the Patriots have seen totals listed at 46 or below in seven of ten games. Back in 2007, when the Pats owned the greatest single-season offensive numbers of all-time, there were six games that had a total listed in the 50's. Only two of those games finished 'over' the total, and coincidentally they were both against NFC teams, a 48-27 victory at Dallas and a 31-28 squeaker over Philadelphia.

The Monday Night 'over' trend has taken a nosedive recently, as the 'under' has cashed in each of the last three weeks. The last 'over' on Monday Night came at the Superdome, when the Saints held off the Falcons, 35-27, in Week 8, eclipsing the total of 56. Since 2007, New England has been showcased on Monday just four times, including the 25-24 close call in this year's season opener against Buffalo. Perhaps the most memorable Monday Night game in the last three seasons for the Patriots was their late rally at Baltimore in '07, staving off the Ravens, 27-24 as 19-point favorites.

The Patriots have won 17 straight regular season games against the NFC, dating back to 2005, as the last team to knock off New England prior to the playoffs was Carolina in Week 2 four seasons ago. Of course, in the midst of this nice winning streak, notice the "regular season" caveat, as the Pats were tripped up by the Giants in Super Bowl 42 back in 2007.

VI capper Bruce Marshall feels betting the total may be worth a strong consideration, "This looks like one where the Saints might not get over the hump, although I actually might prefer the "over" (despite that bloated total). Expect an enhanced pace and tempo as Brady goes after an injured Saints secondary, while Brees & Co. will be treating each possession in must-score mode. The fact the Saints have been a bit careless with the ball over the past month increases the chances of a defensive or a cheaper score distorting the total on Monday night."

Marshall has found several solid 'over' trends in each team's direction, "Both have been trending 'over' in this role, with the Patriots going 'over' 14-9 the last 23 away from home, the Saints finishing 'over' 14-4 the last 18 at the Superdome, and the 'over' hitting in 21 of the last 31 overall for New Orleans since late '07."

Fellow VI capper Joe Nelson has found several interesting nuggets on the strength of each teams' resumes, "Much is being made of the easy schedule that the Saints have faced, having only defeated two winning teams all year. While New England has faced a tougher overall schedule, the Patriots have zero wins against winning teams, having lost to both Denver and Indianapolis. The best wins for the Patriots came against 5-5 Atlanta, 5-5 Baltimore, and 5-5 Miami, and the Saints have defeated two of those teams as well. New England also has failed to win a true road game this season, as its only win away from home came against Tampa Bay in London."

Both squads are coming off different hurdles the last two weeks, and according to Nelson, the advantage may lie with New Orleans in that respect. "The Saints have some concerns on defense, but this will be the biggest game of the season by far after slugging through games against lousy teams the past two weeks. New England has played Indianapolis in a huge national TV contest, and then faced the Jets in a critical division revenge game which will make it tough to get up for yet another huge test. While going against the Patriots is never an ideal situation, taking the Saints as a very small favorite at home has value this week and this is a team that has found ways to win, and usually win convincingly even with horrible starts in several recent games. There will not be a lack of intensity or flat performance out of the gate this week," says Nelson.

Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetEd.com says this game will definitely pique the public's interest. "This will be our most popular game of the year. Big action games like this usually brings solid two-way action. It's crucial to the book's earn percentage to hold a single number for as long as possible. Unnecessary line movement creates a wider lose margin. So don't expect much movement to this line," says Scott.

This line has seen change throughout the week, as Scott and his team has needed to make the necessary changes, "The line opened with the Saints -3 (+110), but quickly changed to Saints -2. The total dropped a half-point to 55 ½ since opening. The total however will see some flux. This is a relatively high starting number for an NFL total, which will cause the books to quickly react to incoming 'under' money."

The Saints are currently two-point favorites in most outfits, while the total is slowly climbing into the 57 range.

[hitmen44]

i really like the over.

[CNOTES]

Patriots attracting bettor’s attention as underdogs

With the exception of a game or two, the Monday Night football package has enjoyed a number of very entertaining contests. The excitement goes from exceptional to like a child waiting to open that first Christmas present with what is in store Monday night.

Two years ago, the New England Patriots started the season 10-0 on their way to perfect regular season record and had a prime time telecast against Philadelphia, in which the Eagles gave them everything they could handle, before they prevailed 31-28 as better than three touchdown home favorites. That was the first chink in the armor of New England all season and it would not completely manifest itself until they lost in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

Now the 7-3 Patriots head to the bayou in the role of spoiler, in the exact opposite situation two years later, trying to knock off the perfect 10-0 New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots (6-4 ATS) quickly put behind the notorious Bill Belichick decision against Indianapolis and jettison past the New York Jets 31-14. Tom Brady and receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss are backing to tearing up defenses. New England is the AFC’s highest scoring offense at 29 points per game and they are averaging 37.2 PPG over their last five outings. They are 37-18 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

Sportsbook.com has the Pats in a shootout with New Orleans, as total is up to 56.5. This has not been a reason to back off the Brady bunch, who is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game and 7-0 against the spread if they face a team scoring 29 or more points per contest.

But as good as the Patriots are and have been, New Orleans (7-3 ATS) has been better this season.

Drew Brees is in charge of the top scoring (36.9) team in the league and best offense (420.5) for gaining yards. The Saints increased production followed the offense live and its running backs. New Orleans can pound the ball to control the clock behind Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell averaging 4.8 yards per carry (4th) against teams that allow 4.4. Depending on how coach Sean Payton sets up the game plan and how the flow of the game emerges, New Orleans can play different styles with equal effectiveness. The Saints are 10-1 ATS vs. AFC opponent with .666 or better record in the Superdome.

Oddmakers opened New Orleans as garden variety three-point home favorites, but the wagering public still prefers the Patriots big game experience and have bet the Saints down to 1.5-point choice, despite the 13-4 ATS record as favorites.

New Orleans has scored 21 or more points in 18 straight home games and is 11-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. The three-time Super Bowl champions are 10-2 OVER versus rushing teams averaging 4.5 or yards a carry over the last three seasons.
New England covers if they handle the New Orleans blitz packages. More teams have been using combo coverages on Moss, which has left a lot of room for Welker to work underneath and move the chains. This allows the Patriots to move the chains and sets up Moss for later against a secondary that is less than 100 percent health-wise. Expect the Pats to be more patient in the running game than normal, since the Saints have surrendered over 150 yards per game the last four outings. Despite rumored opinions of coach Belichick having lost faith in his defense, the New England secondary is playing a much greater variety of coverages than earlier in the season and will have to mix press coverage with different Cover 2 looks and run exotic blitzes just to keep Brees guessing, which could lead to turnover.

New Orleans covers if they protect the ball. In weeks 7-10, they turned the ball over 13 times and not coincidently, failed to cover three of those four wins. Brees will see different looks than he’s seen all season and has to exhibit patience. Coach Payton has really improved as play-caller, leaving out the “look how smart I am” plays that sometimes placed his team in bad spots in key moments of games. Where the coach has to be at his best is in the red zone, since New England is in the bottom third of the league in defending scores in confined area. The same holds true of Saints defense. Don’t worry about giving up yardage; play tough in the red zone. The Patriots are surprising below average in this area (21 TDs on 44 possessions), which is pointed out ranking third in scoring and ninth in yards per point.

Monday Night System – Play Against any outdoor road team facing an opponent that plays in a dome. (32-14 ATS, 69.5 percent L12Y)

[CNOTES]

Monday, November 30Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 8:30 PM ET New England +1 500
New Orleans - Under 56.5 500