Sunday NFL Selection

[ProInfoSports]

Sunday NFL Selection

Washington +6 over KANSAS CITY

The surprising Redskins pay a visit to the disappointing Chiefs on Sunday in an inter-conference meeting. Washington comes into Kansas City in a tie atop the NFC East with the Giants, relinquishing sole possession of the division lead with a narrow 21-19 loss in Denver last week. The Chiefs, meanwhile, comes off a bye week that was preceded by back-to-back losses to Denver and Philadelphia. The losses dropped K.C. into second place in the AFC West, a game-and-a-half back of the first-place Broncos.

Redskins QB Mark Brunell seems to be playing with each week since being named as Joe Gibbs’ starter. He is coming off a strong day in Denver last week, turning in just his second 300-yard passing performance in two years with the team. The Skins are now 12th in the league in passing offense after being simply abysmal last year. Brunell should be able to move the sticks here against a Kansas City secondary that was supposed to be much-improved in 2005 but has yet to display its dominance. Entering this game, the Chiefs rank a distant 30th in the league in passing defense. Washington’s passing game is now starting to open things up for RB Clinton Portis, who went over 100 yards last week against his former team in Denver. The Redskins are sixth in the league in rushing offense and will go up against a K.C. defense that ranks eighth in the league against the run.

Kansas City's offensive goal on Sunday, as always, will be to establish the running game with Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. Running room should be easier to find this week due to the anticipated return of Pro Bowl left tackle Willie Roaf; however, Washington’s defense has played overall against the run, allowing just over 100 yards per game. Chiefs quarterback Trent Green enters Week 6 with a mediocre passer rating of 77.6, and has yet to have a big game. The Chiefs are a modest 18th in the league in passing offense and will certainly be challenged by a sixth-ranked Redskins’ passing defense.

The wagering public does not believe the Redskins are for real and continue to fade them each week, even though it’s cost them each week since the opener. Despite Washington’s early success, the lines have not been adjusted to compensate, so the value continues to be on the Redskins. For example, they were 7-point underdogs at Denver last week, even though that was the line for the game before the season started. The pre-season line for this game was K.C. -6½, so we again see little line movement that reflects an improved Washington team. The public evidently believes that the Redskins have done it with smoke and mirrors; however, there’s no question that they are an improved offensive team, and continue to be strong defensively, as they were last year. The reasons are numerous as to why Washington has performed better this season including Gibbs’ getting more comfortable in his second year back in the NFL, team getting more comfortable with his offense, a much healthier offensive line, a true downfield threat, and much better QB play. That’s not smoke and mirrors.

A couple of PRO INFO SPORTS NFL POWER SYSTEMS back up a play on Washington and against the Chiefs, as Kansas City fits the parameters of being a .500 favorite of 3+ points off 2 losses and now playing a team not off a spread win of 17+ points. In such games with a TOTAL of 47 points or less, the qualifying teams are 0-19 ATS since 1998, failing to cover by more than 2 TDs a game on average.

Coming off a bye may not be a big help for Kansas City, as some presume. Home favorites and small underdogs off a bye and 2 losses before the bye have flopped for the most part. When we exclude teams off a Monday Night Football loss, winless opponents, and opponents not off a home favorite OT loss, we find these rested teams are 0-14-1 ATS since 1992. The Chiefs themselves were active as the play-against team in 1992, as 6-point favorites against the Chargers. Kansas City held on to win 16-14, but didn’t cover the number. The most recent qualifying game was last year, with Washington in the role of the play-ON opponents. They were 1-point underdogs at Chicago and came away with a 13-10 SU win. While a few more points can be expected to be scored here, we still like Washington’s chances of keeping this one tight as they have every week this year.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: KANSAS CITY 24 WASHINGTON 21