[CNOTES]

The NFL “open dates” start next weekend and if you’ve been around StatFox or the Platinum Sheet the last few seasons, you’ve probably been anxiously awaiting the annual articles highlighting the top team trends for pre- and post-bye week games. Well, wait no more, as that time has come. In what will be a two-part article with the second half to be released in about a month, I have highlighted 68 different bye week angles, covering 48 different games between weeks 3 and 11 on the NFL schedule. Four of the games affected are on tap for this weekend. These articles in 2007 & 2008 make up half of the top six most read articles in StatFox history. I hope to make this year’s releases #1 & #2.

If you haven’t ever studied teams’ performances in and out of the bye week, what you’ll see here should open your eyes. Hopefully it will expand your bankroll as well, as all of these 68 different powerful ATS or Over-Under trends boast winning percentages of at least 70% or at most 30%.

I’ve decided to break this piece into two simply because of the volume of information and because it has such shelf life. This first part will cover games from Week 3 through Week 7. Be sure to save or bookmark this page to refer back to for future reference, then make sure to check back for the second half of the piece the week of October 26th, covering games in Weeks 8-11.

Enjoy the information, and good luck.

Week 3
9/27/09 - (405) KANSAS CITY at (406) PHILADELPHIA


PHILADELPHIA has not done well in the game before the bye week, 3-7 SU & 2-7-1 ATS since '00.

UNDERDOGS are 12-2-1 ATS in PHILADELPHIA's L15 pre-bye week games.
Play on: KANSAS CITY ATS

9/27/09 - (417) ATLANTA at (418) NEW ENGLAND


ATLANTA is 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since '01.
Play on: ATLANTA SU & ATS

9/27/09 - (429) INDIANAPOLIS at (430) ARIZONA


ARIZONA is 5-0-1 OVER the total in its L6 pre-bye week games
Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

9/28/09 - (431) CAROLINA at (432) DALLAS


UNDERDOGS have covered 12 straight CAROLINA pre-bye week games.

CAROLINA is 6-1 ATS in its L7 pre-bye week games on the road.
Play on: CAROLINA ATS

Week 4
10/4/09 - (211) DETROIT at (212) CHICAGO


Prior to its '08 win, CHICAGO has lost seven straight pre-bye week games ATS.
Play on: DETROIT ATS

10/4/09 - (217) NY JETS at (218) NEW ORLEANS


UNDERDOGS are on a 9-1-1 ATS run in NEW ORLEANS pre-bye week games.
Play on: UNDERDOG ATS

10/4/09 - (225) SAN DIEGO at (226) PITTSBURGH


HOME TEAMS are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the L6 SAN DIEGO pre-bye week contests.

OVER has been the total result in 11 of the L14 SAN DIEGO pre-bye week games.
Play on: PITTSBURGH SU & ATS and OVER THE TOTAL

10/5/09 - (227) GREEN BAY at (228) MINNESOTA


FAVORITES are 5-1-1 ATS in the GREEN BAY's L7 pre-bye week games.
Play on: FAVORITE ATS

Week 5
10/11/09 - (403) DALLAS at (404) KANSAS CITY


DALLAS is on a run of 9-2 ATS in pre-bye week games.
Play on: DALLAS ATS

10/11/09 - (405) WASHINGTON at (406) CAROLINA


FAVORITES are 6-1 SU & ATS in CAROLINA's L7 post-bye week games.

UNDER the total is 5-1 in CAROLINA's L6 post-bye week games.
Play on: FAVORITE ATS and UNDER THE TOTAL

10/11/09 - (407) TAMPA BAY at (408) PHILADELPHIA


PHILADELPHIA has gone UNDER the total in 10 straight post-bye week games.

PHILADELPHIA has won 11 straight post-bye week games and is 9-2 ATS in the process.
Play on: PHILADELPHIA SU & ATS and UNDER THE TOTAL

10/11/09 - (417) ATLANTA at (418) SAN FRANCISCO


Favorites are 8-3 ATS in ATLANTA's L11 post-bye week games.

ATLANTA is 9-0-2 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since '99.
Play on: FAVORITE ATS and UNDER THE TOTAL

10/11/09 - (421) HOUSTON at (422) ARIZONA


ARIZONA is 11-3 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since '94
Play on: UNDER THE TOTAL

10/11/09 - (425) INDIANAPOLIS at (426) TENNESSEE


INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS in its L10 pre-bye week road games.
Play on: INDIANAPOLIS ATS

10/12/09 - (427) NY JETS at (428) MIAMI


UNDERDOGS are 8-1 ATS in MIAMI's L9 pre-bye week games.
Play on: UNDERDOG ATS

Week 6
10/18/09 - (215) BALTIMORE at (216) MINNESOTA


UNDERDOGS have gone 4-0 ATS in BALTIMORE's L4 pre-bye week games.

BALTIMORE is 6-1 UNDER the total in pre-bye week games since '02.
Play on: UNDER DOG ATS and UNDER THE TOTAL

10/18/09 - (217) ST LOUIS at (218) JACKSONVILLE


JACKSONVILLE has been a strong pre-bye week team of late, going 4-0 SU & ATS in L4, outscoring opponents by 15.8 PPG.
Play on: JACKSONVILLE SU & ATS

10/18/09 - (219) NY GIANTS at (220) NEW ORLEANS


NEW ORLEANS is on a 1-5 ATS slide in post-bye week games, including 0-3 SU & ATS under Sean Payton.
Play on: NY GIANTS SU & ATS

10/18/09 - (223) DETROIT at (224) GREEN BAY


DETROIT has lost five straight pre-bye week games, both SU & ATS, average score 33-11.

HOME TEAMS are 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in DETROIT's L14 pre-bye week games.
Play on: GREEN BAY SU & ATS

10/18/09 - (227) ARIZONA at (228) SEATTLE


HOME TEAMS have won eight straight SEATTLE pre-bye week games and are 6-2 ATS in that span.
Play on: SEATTLE SU & ATS

10/18/09 - (231) TENNESSEE at (232) NEW ENGLAND


TENNESSEE has won six of its L7 pre-bye week games, both SU & ATS.
Play on: TENNESSEE SU & ATS

10/19/09 - (235) DENVER at (236) SAN DIEGO


DENVER is just 2-7 ATS in its L9 pre-bye week games on the road AND vs division opponents.

DENVER is 8-2-1 OVER the total in its L11 pre-bye week games.
Play on: SAN DIEGO ATS and OVER THE TOTAL

Week 7
10/25/09 - (413) SAN DIEGO at (414) KANSAS CITY


KANSAS CITY is 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its L8 pre-bye week games vs. divisional foes.
Play on: KANSAS CITY SU & ATS

10/25/09 - (415) INDIANAPOLIS at (416) ST LOUIS


INDIANAPOLIS has scored 33.4 PPG in its L10 post-bye week games, going 9-1 OVER.
Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

10/25/09 - (417) CHICAGO at (418) CINCINNATI


ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 ATS in CINCINNATI pre-bye week games since '01.
Play on: CHICAGO ATS

10/25/09 - (421) MINNESOTA at (422) PITTSBURGH


UNDERDOGS & ROAD TEAMS are 6-1 ATS in the L7 PITTSBURGH pre-bye week games.
Play on: MINNESOTA ATS

10/25/09 - (423) NEW ENGLAND at (424) TAMPA BAY


TAMPA BAY is on a 6-1 SU & ATS roll in pre-bye week games.
Play on: TAMPA BAY SU & ATS

10/25/09 - (425) SAN FRANCISCO at (426) HOUSTON


HOME TEAMS are 8-1 SU & ATS in SAN FRANCISCO post-bye week games since '01.

SAN FRANCISCO has lost five straight post-bye week games and is 1-4 ATS.

The OVER has converted on 10 straight SAN FRANCISCO post-bye week totals.
Play on: HOUSTON SU & ATS and OVER THE TOTAL

10/25/09 - (433) ATLANTA at (434) DALLAS


ROAD TEAMS are 6-0 SU & ATS in DALLAS' L6 post-bye week games.

DALLAS has won & covered four straight post-bye week games, all on the road though.
Play on: ATLANTA SU & ATS

10/26/09 - (437) PHILADELPHIA at (438) WASHINGTON


WASHINGTON has struggled offensively going into the bye week, scoring 13.4 PPG in its L10, resulting in eight UNDER's.
Play on: UNDER THE TOTAL

[Hammer]

Going into week 5 and if i calculated right,these trends are 3-7.Curious to see what it is at the half way mark and for the season.Maybe it the year you may want to just go the opposite.I do not rely on trends but some people do.GL.

[igetp2s]

I always take the teams coming off a bye. They have historically done very well. Don't worry about trends, home/away, that kind of stuff. Just keep it simple, and always take every team off the bye against the spread, and you'll have a nice record at the end of the year.

[igetp2s]

So far this year:

In Week 5:
Arizona W
Atlanta W
Philadelphia W
Carolina L

In Week 6:
Chicago L
Green Bay W
New Orleans W
San Diego L

In Week 7:
Dallas W
Indianapolis W
Miami L
San Francisco P

Overall YTD: 7-4-1 63.6% Not bad at all.

[igetp2s]

Not too good this week. Detroit & Seattle both lost.

7-6-1 now for the year.

[jamesgartin]

Detroit had the worst game ever, i didn't imagine they will lose.

[igetp2s]

Yep, pretty tough for any team to lose to St Louis. But I stick with the system, take any team coming off a bye, regardless of how good or bad they are. I think the odds don't reflect enough the value of players resting mid-season, and coaches having 2 weeks to create a game plan for the next opponent.

This simple system has won well over 52% over the past few years.

[igetp2s]

Good week last week: Cincy, KC, Pit and TB won, NE and Was lost.

YTD 11-8-1 about 58%. Right on target based on history.

[igetp2s]

Bad week this, St Louis won, Buffalo, NY Jets, Oakland and Cleveland lost. Minnesota I'm calling a win (closing line was 17 but you could have had for less most of the week).

13-12-1 with Houston and NY Giants as the last plays of the year this week on this system.

[igetp2s]

Wow 1st losing season in quite a while. Hopefully nobody actually as following this besides me!