Two Solid NFL Week 3 Angles/Systems

[Professor - FixerWins]

Sports Handicapping Angles/Systems
by ProfessorWins

Sports handicapping systems/angles can be loosely grouped into 3 distinct categories: (1) Letdown angles which are Play Against, (2) Momentum angles which are Play On, and (3) Look-ahead angles which can be either positive or negative. They can be based on statistics from previous games, location-based such as home-off-away or home-off-home, or be outcome-based with a team coming off a win or loss. More often, they are a combination of the above. Below are just a couple of the many angles I have in action for Week 3 in the NFL. I will break down two angles from the different categories above. Each angle will be broken down to explain the rationale behind the angle, and a qualifying game will be identified. Without further adieu, let me get started.

1. LETDOWN ANGLE: Away dogs that won their last game by 14 or more pts as home dogs of +3 or more are just 6-25-2 ATS since 1989.

Rationale: Teams that are coming off an upset win at home are feeling pretty good about themselves in general, but a 2 touchdown blowout win over a team that was believed to be better then them (the fact that they were +3 at home ensures this) makes them feel extra special about themselves. Now a week later, they are going on the road, again as dogs, and they are not likely to catch this week’s opponent by surprise given last week’s upset win. The result, as the 5-28 SU and 6-25-2 ATS record shows, is overwhelmingly an SU/ATS loss. Playing against these teams nets you a nice 80.6% angle that has survived the test of time going back 16 years!

This Week: The angle plays AGAINST Tennessee as they are off a blowout 15 pt home win over Baltimore as dogs of +3 ½ pts. It will be difficult for them to get up again here for a non-conference game, especially with their first divisional foe on-deck next week (Indianapolis).

2. LOOK-AHEAD ANGLE: Dogs the week prior to their bye are 116-93-6 ATS since 1997, and dogs of +6 or more prior to their bye are 39-11-1 ATS during that span.

Rationale: Teams use their bye week to get rested, both from a mental and physical perspective. As such, the week prior to a bye, teams know (and hear over and over from the coaches) that they can give everything they have that week and then they’ll get a “break.” They know they’ll be rewarded when the game is over. Now, give these motivated teams some points, in this case +6, and they’re pretty hard to beat as indicated by the 39-11-1 ATS. That’s a nice little 78% angle that spans 50 plays over an 8 year period.

This Week: The angle plays ON Cleveland this week as they are on bye next week, and currently +13 ½ to Indianapolis. Crennel should have no problem motivating his guys to face the mighty Colts, and if anyone knows how to stop Peyton Manning it would be Crennel whose defenses in New England frustrated Manning each time they played. It will be difficult for Indianapolis to cover such a big number against a highly motivated team.

Best of Luck to all...

Rick
ProfessorWins

[luomo78]

Just curious, does this apply to all weeks, or only during week 3 games?

[Professor - FixerWins]

luomo78,

Both of these angles apply to ALL games regardless of the week. I prefer to use angles that are all-inclusive vice those that apply to a specific week of the season.

That said, I do have some angles that look specifically at September games, or late season December games, but neither of the above are in this category. For example, one of my favorite angles which is 91-43-8 ATS overall against the spread since 1997. And, it's an even better 56-17-5 ATS during that span when it applies to Games 2-4 (September games) of the season. It had 7 plays last week, and went 6-1. Two more apply this weekend.

Feel free to drop me an email if you have any more questions.

Rick

[Professor - FixerWins]

PLAY UNDER when we have two teams that had 4 or more turnovers last game if the total is 38 or more pts. This angle is 11-0 UNDER since 1997.

This week it plays UNDER 44.5 New Orleans and Minnesota.

[Hammer]

WENT AGAINST YOUR LETDOWN THEORY.ONE OF US WILL BE GOING BACK TO SCHOOL AFTER SUNDAY.

[elroy]

Professor, I do respect the fact you like doing research on teams and trends, correlations, etc, that can and do pop up every now and then. However, I am here to take a stand, saying that trend analysis does not work, and never will. Maybe you will see a couple good weeks here and there, but no handicapper will never see long-term profits stemming from trends and angles like the ones you listed above. Instead, it is important to look at each game as it is disconnected from any other.

You may be asking what my credentials on this issue are, and rightfully so. For years, I had run systems based on everything under the sun, including those based on trends and angles very similiar to the ones you list, and no system had worked in the long term for me. I can actually say that I have seen it all, and none of it works, except for the fine-tuning of one's own strategy/method in picking games along with learning how to listen to your gut.

Also, it isn't a coincedence that you see hundreds of trends like yours listed in publications that are sponsored and printed by sportsbooks. It's because they want people like us to follow them, and hand money over to them hand over fist.

Now, to put my own methodology against yours, listed below are all my picks for this week's NFL action. Everyone enjoy, and if I lose bad, please criticize

Ten +6.5
Oak +8.5
Min -4
Mia +3
Ind -13.5
Atl +2.5
Arz +6.5
NE +3
Dal -6.5
SD -5.5
Den -3
NYJ -2.5
Oak/Phil over 46
Jax/NYJ over 33.5
Ind/Cle under 47

[Hammer]

If you are a "Numbers" guy and have a bad week you were just on the wrong side of the equation.If you are not a #;s guy and lose,you just had a bad week.I work just as hard to pick a winner as I do to pick a looser.The main thing is to just...BANG THE BOOK!!!!

[Professor - FixerWins]

Elroy,

Thanks for the reply. I absolutely agree that no "system" or "angle" or "trend" should be the basis for a selection. Handicapping football games is much more than following any one system or angle. For instance, my top play of the day was Jacksonville based on some very strong angles I have coupled with a great fundamental matchup. However, I wouldn't say that using angles in your handicapping "tool box" is useless. Angles, at least those that have statistical relevance, have some predictable value. No, an angle that is 40-10 does not mean it will 80% of the time just because it has an 80% winning percentage from past games. No angle has a liklihood of better than 60-63% success, regardless of its past performance. Nonetheless, an angle that is say 150-80 ATS dating back to 1983 HAS SIGNIFICANT VALUE. The secret is to use angles that have a lot of games within them, and go back over a long period. Angles that go back 3 years are useless as most would be 50% if you were to run them back 20 years. Similarly, an angle that is 10-0 is more likely an anomoly than a statistical occurrance.

Finally, I hardly use trends (team trends) in handicapping at all. I do, however, use coaching trends as they do have some value. Again, they should be taken in perspective with the fundamental matchup.

Anyway, thanks for the feedback. I will continue to handicap games using both a "technical" and "fundamental" approach. I have had significant success with that method over the years, and have confidence in it toward the future.

Regards,

Rick
"ProfessorWins"