Not mine I dug them up on the net, but a good read
To find the answer, we culled six years worth of Week One NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past six seasons, NFL home teams in week one are just 38-50-8 ATS (43%). This of course implies that roadies are a 57% winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in week one when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Take a long and hard look at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price Ranges
Favorites are just 38-50-8 ATS (42%) in the opening week over the past six NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 57% clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges: favorites priced between -3.5 and -6.5 are only 11-19 ATS (37%) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when isolating just home favorites (road favorites hit at a 50% clip). Home favorites indeed are just 26-38-4 ATS (41%) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between -3.5 and -6.5 have stumbled to an 8-15 ATS (35%) mark in week one games the past six seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid range favorites are generally overvalued in week one.
JT
Sneaks
Week One Trends 
Linear Mode
