Statnerds 0-2 L2 NFL

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Had no college plays yesterday, scary day. And we have dropped our L2 games in NFL, looking for a rebound...

Guys,

Like a lot of things today, but only have enough confidence to release one. It officially earns the label "The Something's Got to Give" game.

NYG/Pitt O 42

This line opened at 44 and has dropped to 42, but we lack the brains to figure out why. Weather concerns? Perhaps, but the sun is out today in Pittsburgh, a little windy, but nothing major. Defensive battle? Perhaps, except the best scoring offense the Giants faced so far was the 17th ranked 49ers. We were hoping for extra value when Holmes was deactivated for illegal stuff, but books are awfully hesitant to move off that magic 42.

So, something has to give part 1. The G-men bring in the NFL's most potent running attack against number 1 overall and number 2 vs rush D. Hampton is expected back today and that helps the Pitt rush D, although we must admit Hoke served admirably as a replacement. A healthy Hamtpon almost requires a double team on running between the tackles, freeing up a LB or two to make a tackle. So, if Steelers can slow rush attack, Eli should have to throw more, bringing us to...

Something has to give part 2. The Steelers lead the NFL with 25 sacks, but Eli has only gone down 6 times this year. Football is about creating match-ups that favor your personnel over the other guy's. Wtih CB McFadden out, the Giants should enjoy a mismatch or two when they go 3-wide. Manning likes to spread the ball around as 3 WRs have at least 20 catches on the year.

On the flip side, OC Arians took much deserved heat after his offense got manhandled by the Eagles. That proves to be required course work and today is the test. Similar D's that like to pressure the QB, and Giants tied for 2nd in NFL with 21 sacks. Arians admitted in that game the Steelers were surprised by the Eagles pressure (enough to earn a firing right there), and did not adjust to it.

It is mandatory that Pittsburgh avoid obvious passing situations to keep their QB upright. Arians' creativity will be tested today and we will know early on if we have a shot at hitting this total. We don't suggest Arians abandon the run a la the Patriots and throw 22 straight downs, but they must have enough first down passes, well-designed screen plays and quick hot route throws to keep that Giants' defense from digging in on a pass rush.

We show little concern for Holmes not playing in this one, as Ward is leading receiver on team, and any early involvement of TE Miller will force Giants to commit a LB to him or drop a safety down. Also, Washington is averaging 15.0 yds/rec and we expect Ben to look to hit a big one early versus an agressive D. Parker is out, meaning 4th stringer Moore will get the nod again. Should equal even more pass attempts by the Steelers.

As for numbers, we cannot figure out how two teams that combine for just under 52 pts/gm have a number this low. We trust Pittsburgh's D ranking is a little more accurate as they faced better offenses. This Giants pass D has proven they can be had if teams neutralize their heavy pass rush. Both teams are 4/2 O/U this season. Our clincher? Pittsburgh is currently 21-5-1 O/U since 2005 at Heinz Field.

Look but can't bite

Ari/Car Over 43

Phi, so did everyone else. big difference between laying 7 instead of 10

Jax, a big difference between laying 6 instead of 8

Cincy, the biggest difference of all is taking 9.5 instead of 10. funny a half point would scare us off.

GL Guys,

Stats