Best Bet Week 8

[nflman]

BUFFALO -1

I think the Bills will just overpower the Dolphins. The Dolphins are getting a lot of good press because they beat New England and San Diego, but neither of those teams have been able to put any pressure on opposing QBs this year, and that is Chad Pennington's Kryptonite, you must pressure him to beat him. I think the Bills bring it. Not only that but Dolphins starting DT Jason Ferguson is out. So, the Bills on offense will not be dealing with the Dolphins defense at full power.

Teams playing their first game in a situation where they have at least one starting D lineman out are 1-6 ATS this year, the only win being last weeks Tennessee at Kansas City game where Tony Brown was out for the Titans. So, you could say teams are 0-6 in games that they have any chance of losing.

Using closing lines, all favorites this year of less than 2 points have won ATS - the combined record of home and away favorites is 14-0 ATS

Other teams that will have at least one starting D lineman out are the Washington Redskins at Detroit. Sounds too much like Tennessee at Kansas City, I don't like that game.

Watch the Sunday injury report on the Raiders D-line, you could be (2) D linemen out for the silver and black. Burgess and Warren are listed as questionable. Ravens are in a classic situation with a rookie head coach as a 7 point favorite. Betting Ravens big if the Raiders are going in with 2 back-ups in their front four.

[BangTheBook]

This game seems like a huge trap game. I like Buffalo but the line seems off

[jtsneaks]

Great write up and you make some good points considering that the Ravens beat the fish using that same M.O.


JT

[MikeOswald]

I'm on this as my play of the week too, BOL man

[nflman]

adding:

SEATTLE +5

I like this play better that the others I have posted. I hope that if you follow me you can get a little more down on this one. I am not a big fan of the card this week. This weeks lines are the hardest of any week this year.

[Hammer]

Just finished the Buff-Miami game NFLMAN and getting Buff 20 Miami 35 this is a good spot for Miami and being at home just makes it that much better.BUT... do I know?LOL Good luck my friend.

[Hammer]

Looked into the Oakland-Balti game and I think you are right NFLMAN.I am getting Oakland 26 and Balti 34 was going to leave the game alone but after what you mentioned,I am going to go with Balti.NICE!!! My plate is full-full

[nflman]

Originally Posted by Hammer

Just finished the Buff-Miami game NFLMAN and getting Buff 20 Miami 35 this is a good spot for Miami and being at home just makes it that much better.BUT... do I know?LOL Good luck my friend.

You're probably right I started to dislike that after I posted it. Not worth the hype?

[chickendinner]

Originally Posted by BangTheBook

This game seems like a huge trap game. I like Buffalo but the line seems off

I'm with you on this Ryan, although Buffalo seems a better team, but Miami will pull it off tomorrow outright, the line is off.

[UMDBookingRook]

Originally Posted by nflman

adding:
I am not a big fan of the card this week. This weeks lines are the hardest of any week this year.

smartest thing said on this board regarding this week.