MNF Info

[Raji]

-The Broncos jumped out to a quick start this year, but we’ve seen some glaring issues since then. What worries you most about this team?



The Prez: While most will pinpoint a soft defensive front seven, the loss of Ryan Torain to a broken left elbow has become the most glaring concern. He was the one running back that offered the offense that muscle between the tackles. Torain isn't the burner that Mike Shanahan's offense needs as an every down back, but he possesses that size-speed ratio that is necessary to succeed in short yardage situations. For now veteran RB Michael Pittman will serve as the short yardage workhorse, but when Torain returns from injury in the next two weeks this offense becomes even more dangerous.



Larry Ness: There are many things wrong with the Broncos. Let's remember that since Elway retired after the team's back-to-back Super Bowl wins in 1997 and 1998, Denver has been a playoff team just four times in nine seasons (going only 1-4 in five postseason games). Plus they’ve missed the postseason in each of the last two years. The Broncos no longer own a dominant running game and while Jay Cutler is a quality QB, his receiving corps is mediocre -Brandon Marshall is no Jerry Rice. Defensively, the Broncos rank 30th in total yards allowed and dead last in passing yards allowed (255.5 YPG), while allowing 72.7 percent completions with just two interceptions.



-As bad as the season’s gone so far for the Patriots, it’s hard to write a Bill Belichick team off this early. Can the Pats get back in the playoff picture or will they be playing for next season sooner rather than later?



The Prez: While the AFC East is stronger this year than it's been in the last half decade the Patriots have a lot of work to do if they plan on playing football in late January. The offensive line has been exposed as a finesse group that is suited more to protect the quarterback than grind out yards. Right tackle Nick Kaczur was busted for illegal possession of Oxycontin and is currently suffering through several nagging ailments. Right guard Stephen Neal can't stay healthy and left tackle Matt Light has been in and out of the lineup with bumps and bruises.



Without Brady the offense is average and their defense, even with Belichick serving as their leader, ranks in the bottom half of the league. Their linebackers are slow and well past their prime and the secondary isn't talented enough to overcome the slow feet in the front seven. Making the playoffs is still possible, especially with their schedule, but this isn't the same New England team we've watched for the last five seasons.



Larry Ness: Belichick's place is history is secured with three Super Bowl wins. However, while the Pats may make the playoffs in 2008, they are no threat to win the Super Bowl. Cassel's first-ever NFL start came in Week 2 of this season and the Pats’ running game is a mess. Moss could go on a "walkabout" at any time and while Welker is a gamer, he's averaging just nine yards per catch. The good news for New England is that winning the AFC East is plausible, having yet to play Buffalo, while already beating the Jets at the Meadowlands.



-Both of these defenses have looked pretty bad at times this year, especially in the secondary. What’s it going to take to keep this one under the 48-point total?



The Prez: Missed field goals, stalled drives and red zone turnovers. The Broncos routinely had New England's number when Tom Brady was healthy. Anything short of a Broncos turnover party will result in a high scoring affair Monday night.



Larry Ness: The Broncos pass defense is terrible - 255.5 YPG allowed, 72.7 percent completions, nine TDs - but with a mediocre Cassell at QB and no running to speak of to offer balance, the Pats could have problems scoring. I've already mentioned that Denver's running game is nowhere near its past levels plus Cutler's two best WRs, Marshall and rookie Eddie Royal, are averaging only 12.1 and 10.7 yards per catch respectively.



-Denver has given the Patriots fits over the past few years, yet New England is favored in this spot despite a rocky start to the season. What gives?



The Prez: Despite the season-ending injury to Brady, the New England "shade" is still in effect. The public loves backing the Patriots and the bookmakers account for such.



Larry Ness: The Pats have to be favored in this game. The Broncos may be 4-2 but they could (should?) have lost to the Chargers in Week 2 and barely escaped at home in wins over the Saints and Bucs. Belichick is just 2-9 in his career against the Broncos (regular season and playoffs), including a 2-5 mark at the helm of the Pats. But since winning their first of three Super Bowl titles in 2001, the Pats are 54-12 SU at home, including postseason play.



Raji

[Raji]

Denver at New England (-3, 48)

Denver travels to New England for this week's version of the game that John Madden used to announce. The teams have a combined record of just 7-4. That's perhaps only one or two more losses than people would have expected at the start of the year. The difference is that virtually everyone would have guessed that New England wouldn't have contributed anything to loss column. What could have been a showdown between the current king of quarterbacks and a crown prince looking to challenge for the top spot is instead one between one team with a QB and one without. The latter isn't so compelling.

In a clear sign of just how much things have changed for the Pats' this year (not that anyone with a half a brain needs any more of those), about two-thirds of the bets in this game have been made on the Broncos, the three-point underdogs. It takes a lot for the public to turn their backs on a public team, and the Pats have been the definition of a public team for much of this decade. High profile teams automatically have high profile struggles, though, so the inability of Matt Cassel to play football has registered strongly with the general public. The line has moved about as you would expect. It opened with the Pats favored by as much as 4.5, but has adjusted so that they are now up by just the key number of three.

Monday Night Football games have been completely incapable of going under the total, and the line movement suggests that that trend is expected by many to continue. It opened at 46, higher than all but the three games at 47, but then moved up to 48, the highest total of the week. The general impression could be that Denver is an over machine because they score so much, and New England is prone to stay under because of their offensive woes. That was certainly the case in the first month, but recent times have created a shift. Denver is under in their last two, and New England has gone over in two of three. The difference is in the size of totals they have faced. New England hasn't seen a total this size since the Super Bowl, while Denver has already seen two bigger this season. They covered one of them.

Offensively, this game would appear to be a mismatch. On paper, at least. The teams have similar running totals, but that's about it. Denver has passed for nearly 100 more yards per game, is averaging an extra yard per attempt, Cutler has a QB rating 17 points higher than Cassel with four times as many touchdowns, and, incredibly, Cassel has been sacked nine times as many as Cutler's microscopic two. This game might even be close if it weren't for that pesky thing called defense. Denver doesn't really play any. They are better in total yards than only virtual minor-league squads St. Louis and Detroit, and no team has been less successful at stopping the pass. They are just 26th against the run, too, so keeping it on the ground isn't much of an improvement. Matt Cassel could have a god day. On the other hand, San Diego is only marginally better defensively than Denver, and they still managed to shut the Pats down last week.

This game should be good, but it won't be as good as we expected it to be six weeks ago. That seems to describe much of what has happened this year, doesn't it?

Raji