MNF Info

[Raji]

1. What happened to Minnesota’s quarterback-eating d-line? The Vikes are allowing over 20 points a game and have just seven sacks in four games.

SM: Offensive linemen are football players too. You can bet that every opposing o-line the Vikings have faced has been a little extra jacked up to go toe-to-toe with the best in the business. That's the only explanation as to why the so-called 'purple people eaters' have looked more like pussycats so far.

MF: The 20.5 points per game allowed is still 13th fewest in the league so they are above average. The problem stems from the offense as turnovers have put the defense in tough spots and short fields. Also, they have gone against teams that don’t allow a lot of sacks. Green Bay, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Carolina all were in the top half of the league last year in least sacks allowed and they are all in the top half again this year. Jared Allen has only two sacks but he will get going eventually.

The sack production probably won’t increase here considering Drew Brees has been sacked only four times this season after getting dumped a league-low 16 times last year.

2. Deuce McAlister is back but do the Saints even need a strong running game as part of their offense? Can the Saints contend despite their defense?

SM: I'm not sure that Deuce McAllister is a great fit in this offense anymore. Both Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas are more effective runners than Deuce at this stage of his career. There's no question the Saints are going to have to improve defensively if they want to contend in the NFC. Although I think that injuries were a big reason why they struggled in their first few games. We've started to see the real Saints defense since the second half in Denver two weeks ago.

MF: The Deuce is very important to this lineup. His running game opens up the passing game even more for Brees. The Saints lost two of their first three contests with Deuce getting only two carries total in those games. The Saints struggled with designed short-yardage runs in those losses and that is the biggest strength that he brings to the table, the ability to grind out those short yards. Getting these important first downs not only helps the offense but keeps the defense off the field longer.

3. Is Brad Childress’ play calling the issue in Minnesota or is the offense terrible because it only has one weapon in Adrian Peterson?

SM: It's a little bit of both. I've never been a big fan of Childress. He's far too conservative, and that type of play-calling ends up putting a lot of additional pressure on the defense. Of course, any team that has Gus Frerotte starting at QB and Bernard Berrian as its No. 1 WR is going to have a tough time putting points on the board.

MF: I think the play calling, while generic, is correct. The Vikings have two solid backs in Peterson and Chester Taylor and if they get the ball, the Vikings win. Last season, Minnesota was 7-1 when the offense had 30 or more carries and 1-7 when it didn’t. This translated into wins at the window as well as it went 6-1-1 and 1-6-1 respectively. This season the Vikings are 1-2 when going over 30 carries but that could easily be 3-0 or at least 2-1 if not for that Carolina debacle. Run the ball well in the NFL and you will likely win and that means money for those spread backers.

4. Is betting the over in Saints games the best bet going in football right now or what?

SM: I think it's a week too late to start playing Saints overs. Their defense is starting to come together, having allowed only 27 points over their last six quarters of football. I'm not convinced that their offense can continue to put up 30+ points per game either, at least not against capable defenses.

MF: The Saints are going to score points and they are going to give up points but blindly betting the over won’t make you any money. The numbers are being adjusted and eventually the value will be coming the other way. Also, the opposition has a lot to do with it. The total for Monday is 46 1/2 which is the highest total Minnesota has been involved in since Week 2 of 2005 - a span of 51 games. The Vikings are 26-22-3 to the under in those games so we could be seeing some value with the under already.

5. Lots of people had the Vikings running away with the NFC North and possibly marching all the way to the Super Bowl. Now they’re 1-3 and have dropped behind the Packers and Bears at +220 just to win the North. Can they climb out of this early hole?

SM: Anything can happen in the NFC North. No team looks ready to take complete control. The Packers have a boatload of injuries and are coming off back-to-back losses. The Bears have been as inconsistent as any team in the league. And the Lions are, well, the Lions. I wouldn't count out the Vikings just yet. They've only played one division game, so there's plenty of time to make up ground.

MF: The good thing for Minnesota is that trails both Chicago and Green Bay by only a game so it is far from panic time just yet. A win here would be big and then with divisional games in three of the next four games, along with Houston, the Vikings could be right back on top just past the halfway point. This is not a must win for Minnesota but it is a game it could really use. It matches up well and can dictate the tempo. The public loves the home team on national television but New Orleans is just 7-16-1 in its last 24 home games so the Vikings could be worth a shot at the underdog price.


Raji

[Raji]

The Monday Night Football game this week between Minnesota and New Orleans may be a good one, but it won't live up to the potential it had before the season. Coming into the year Minnesota was a darling of many observers of the NFC, and they looked to have real playoff potential. New Orleans looked to have worked on their defense a bit, and Jeremy Shockey was brought in to add an exciting wrinkle to the offense.



A month into the season, much of the optimism on both sides has waned. Minnesota has learned that you can't be a big league team with a minor league QB. Shockey is out of action in New Orleans, and the defense is just as bad as it has been in recent years. These teams should have six or seven wins between them coming into this game. Instead, they have three, and it's hard to get too excited.

New Orleans is favored by three in this one. In other words, take away the home field advantage and this game is a coin flip. The line opened at three, and hasn't seen much movement, though a book or two is trying to move it to 3.5. That movement isn't that surprising, given that three quarters of bets made on this game so far have been on the Saints. We can't know how much money has gone one each side, but it seems safe to say that New Orleans is the obvious public favorite, and the smart money doesn't seem to vehemently disagree.

The total has opened at 47, and has since dropped to 46.5. It's notable that the number hasn't moved significantly since the public is heavily on the over. No surprise - the public loves the over, and especially so on Monday nights. In this case they aren't wrong to be as biased as they are, either - there have been five Monday Night games, and all five have gone over. These two teams lean towards the over as well.



They have gone over the last three times they have faced each other. Minnesota has gone over twice in four games, and the Saints have three overs and a push. New Orleans has the third best offense in the league. Minnesota is in the top half, are particularly good on the ground, and is up against a defense that is better than just five other teams statistically (and perhaps worse than that in reality). Depending on your view, that either all points to a strong and clear over, or, if you are a contrarian, it is too good to be true and you'll look for value by going under the likely inflated total.

Though the public doesn't seem to like Minnesota much, the biggest attraction in this game is obviously Adrian Peterson. Only Kansas City and Detroit are allowing more yards per rush than the Saints, and the dome in New Orleans is a dream surface for running backs, so there is the potential for this one to get out of control. This is the first time Peterson has ever played New Orleans, so their defense has never seen him first hand. As long as his hamstring is reasonably sound, and it appeared to be fine last week despite concerns, we could really see something special.

It's not just New Orleans that could be in for a shock, though. Minnesota hasn't seen a quarterback who plays like Drew Brees - mostly because there isn't one right now. Brees has completed more than 72 percent of his passes, and he exploits any weaknesses a secondary has. Minnesota's secondary isn't great - they made Aaron Rodgers look like a star in his debut, Peyton Manning picked them apart in the Indianapolis comeback, and even the ancient Kerry Collins was able to look pretty good against it. If Brad Childress doesn't have a few tricks up his sleeve then his team could have some problems.

On the surface, this isn't a great game. There have been too many disappointments from both teams up to this point to really be excited. If things fall into place just right, though, then it could certainly have its moments.


Raji

[Raji]

-Power running, anyone?

Adrian Peterson and Deuce McAllister both have a knack for inflicting pain on tacklers, turning nothing into something and wearing down defenses.

Whether their teams rely on them to the same extent when the Minnesota Vikings visit the New Orleans Saints on Monday night is another matter. Oddsmakers have the Saints set as 3-point favorites with the total at 46 1/2.

''It's not like the spotlight is on me,'' said McAllister, who rushed 20 times for 73 yards and a score in the Saints' 31-17 victory over San Francisco a week ago. ''I'm just adding more to this team, more weapons than what we have.''

Under Sean Payton's version of the West Coast offense, which often uses running backs as receivers, the Saints are unquestionably a passing team. Drew Brees has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons in Payton's system and is on pace to do it again.

Yet there are times when there is no substitute for the type of punishing inside runs on which McAllister has made his living - be it bad weather, third-and-short, or late in the fourth quarter while trying to run out the clock with a slim lead.

Payton wasn't sure how much McAllister had left after coming back from his second knee reconstruction in three seasons. The coach kept the Saints' 29-year-old, all-time rushing leader largely out of the game plan during the first three weeks. And while the Saints generally moved the ball, they failed on pivotal short-yardage runs in close losses at Washington and Denver.

When McAllister returned against the Niners, he looked much like his former self, moving the pile and even diving over it for his first regular-season touchdown since December 2006.

Reggie Bush already gave the Saints a credible threat on outside runs and short receptions out of the backfield. McAllister's strong return invigorated an offensive line that enjoys mixing in a little old-fashioned, straight-ahead meanness to the blocking schemes.

''It's encouraging just because it's a big boy running the ball and the way he runs it ... he's going to punish somebody for getting off a block or trying to reach out with an arm,'' Saints offensive tackle Jon Stinchcomb said. ''It's exciting for an offensive line, just like it's exciting to see Reggie make these amazing cuts and find the little space and turn it into a 60- or 70-yard gain.''

The Vikings don't know how much of McAllister they should expect to see, but they have to be ready for him.

''I don't see a whole lot of ill effects from that injury, and Sean's probably been very patient in working with that even though it's not the easiest thing to do,'' Vikings coach Brad Childress said.

Childress' patience has been tested, too, though not in the running game. After losses in the Vikings' first two games, Childress replaced 25-year-old quarterback Tarvaris Jackson with 37-year-old journeyman Gus Frerotte.

Frerotte's receivers include big-play threat Bernard Berrian, but the passing game is not what drives Minnesota. It's Peterson, who ranks second in the NFL with 420 yards rushing.

When Saints defenders talked about Peterson this week, it was reminiscent of what people used to say about McAllister in 2002 and 2003, when he made consecutive Pro Bowls.

''He possesses all the tools: speed, strength, size and attitude,'' Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma said. ''When you watch him run, you can tell he's very competitive. We know they're going to run the ball. It's no secret. They've got a great back, a great offensive line, so it's going to be a huge challenge.''

Peterson does not sound frustrated by his team's slow start. He sees his success as a foundation upon which Minnesota can build and get stronger as the season goes on, perhaps peaking around playoff time as the defending champion New York Giants did last season.

''We know what type of team we have,'' Peterson said. ''You can start off slow, but you can always pick it up and finish strong and that's what it's all about.''

Minnesota's rough start can't last much longer, however, or the Vikings' early-season hole could become too deep, like the Saints' 0-4 start was in 2007.

Peterson sees a road game on Monday night as an ideal place to begin the climb back into playoff contention.

''It will be a good way to bounce back, going into a hostile environment in New Orleans,'' Peterson said. ''Fans will be in that dome drunk, crazy and yelling. It will be a good atmosphere to go out and know what we got. In the playoffs you have to be able to win on the road. It's going to be a good test.''


Raji