Statnerds NFL Sunday

[Stats]

Guys,

Like I said, lucky to keep get on the right side of games. We had no business cashing the over in the Ohio/W Mich game, but we will take. Just trying to keep our heads down and dig out winners. Even on today's completely uninspiring card. Ugly day in the NFL. However, this falling line got us excited:

Lines courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook

NY Giants - 6.5

Refer to your archived e-mails for the week one NFL detailing how absolutely dreadful Seahawks are on the road, except when facing the Eagles. Here is a refresher: In fact, Seahawks made similar trips last year and went 1-3 (we can make it 1-4 with the loss to Buffalo). Having Plaxico out gives us a little value and with America's memory fresh of the 26-23 OT struggle vs Cincy adding more, we still feel this line should be DD.

When the hell did Eli Manning get good? We joined the legion of bashers but he turned it around late last year and continues to roll. Hitting 60% of his passes at the moment and gets to face a secondary that got torched by J.T. O'Sullivan, journeymanus footballicus.

Branch will back and Engram may play, but we all know the cliche about simulating game speed. Hasselbeck completing less than 50% of his passes and goes down once every 15 dropbacks facing a Giants team with 13 sacks so far in just 3 games, getting to the QB once every 7.5 dropbacks. Jones is getting some ground game going, but the Giants D should be a stern test.

This game comes down to the Giants stopping the run. Giving up 3.8 YPR is not appetizing to us in the least, but when facing a team with no passing game, think Giants should amplify efforts. Also, we are chalking up the pathetic performance to a 2-0 team heading into a bye week playing a terrible 0-2 team as a look ahead game. Not to slight the Bengals, but, it was the Bengals. Hard charging Boys and Skins make this a must win for Giants to hold top spot in division.

Atl/G Bay Over 41

We know what you're thinking, why in the heck should we back the over for a road team averaging 9 pts/gm on the road. Well, with Harris out and Hawk banged up, Turner might finally get a running game going against one of the worst rush D's in the league. Additionally, if somehow the Packers manage to dent this stout Falcons' defense, OC Mularkey stated he will have no trouble switching in and out of no-huddle offenses. Ryan compelted a crap load of passes last week, but for nearly 0 yds/cmp. A slight joke, but 20+ cmps for barely over 150 yards?!?!?

As for the Falcons defense, we don't care if Rodgers plays left handed or Matt Flynn is pressed into action and plays blind-folded, the Falcons are terrible on the road. We love getting inside the stats, like Atlanta's rush defense giving up 4.4 YPR on the road, until you noticed 4 of those runs went for -3 yards, kneel downs people. Removing those, as we expect most rushes to be intended to gain yards, it shoots up to 4.8 YPR. Throw in the fact the D let Brian and Jake combine for a 67% completion rate, 67%....holy cow, and Packers should not only get their fading running game 28 yards vs Bucs last week, going again today, but Rodgers could have a field day, injured shoulder and all.

Finally, Ryan may have to throw a lot today, but you may be surprised as we were to find he has only been sacked 7 times in 4 games. His O-line is a mass of humanity should have no trouble opening holes for Turner and protecting Ryan.

Took a look but must pass

Eagles D is sick at home. We love Jason could easily see a back-door cover in this one.

Packers line just hit 5, but we still can't back the Falcons horrible D on the road.

That is it for today, like I said, completely uninspiring card.

GL guys,

Stats

[Bobby O'Shea]

[Stats]

You got me Bobby, I was the guy on the right