NFL Underdogs and Line moves

[Raji]

I think the pro football schedule can be compared to the dating process.



Week 1, much like a first date, is a feeling out process. You find out a little bit about each team but nothing too deep.



Assuming you've got a club figured out after the first week is as dangerous as proposing after date No. 1. Just ask those who backed the Falcons last weekend.



The second date, you find out a little bit more about your lady friend. She's in a different setting, little bit more comfortable and forthcoming with you.



After Week 2 you have two games and two different opponents to judge the play of a particular squad, but you still don't know the full story.



Last year’s Giants were 0-2 straight up and against the spread after the first two weeks.



I don't think any bettor would be comfortable calling the Cardinals Super Bowl contenders after knocking off the lowly Dolphins and Niners.



Now, the third date is usually where you figure out whether you really like the person sitting across from you or not.



I think the third week of the NFL season is exactly the same. There isn't much a team can hide after three games.



Of course, this is a football picks piece – not some Dear Abby column.



I'm coming off a 3-0 week, boosting my season record to a respectable 4-2. I suppose if I do well in the first three weeks of the season and then fall to pieces I'll totally destroy this lovely metaphor.



Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-13 ½)



I’m taking my own advice on this pick.



I know Cincinnati has disappointed bettors ever since Kimo von Oelhoffen crushed Carson Palmer’s knee on the first play of the Bengals playoff game against Pittsburgh in 2006.



I think the Bengals aren’t as good as everyone thought back then and aren’t as bad as everyone thinks they are now.



The Bengals should be more loose on the road away from their fed-up fans ready to boo at the first three-and-out series.



Pick: Bengals



Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5)



There are enough wounded offensive linemen between these two teams to fill in as the entire extra cast in an episode of M.A.S.H.



The Colts’ win against the Vikings last week was courageous, but bettors shouldn’t ignore the flaws shown in Indy’s armor. Rushing for a total of 78 yards on 34 attempts doesn’t do much to instill confidence in Tom Moore’s offense.



The Jags need this game more than the Colts and it’ll show on Sunday.



Pick: Jaguars



New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-9)



Brett Favre isn’t my favorite person in the world, but if you give him nine points with a Monday night national spotlight and I’ll back him every time.



Raji

[Raji]

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons: opened -3, now -6 (line history)

Bettors don’t like the Chiefs and it clearly shows in this drastic pointspread shift. Tony Sinisi, odds director for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, says his group opened at -3 without knowing who would start under center for Kansas City.

“I really think this is a reflection of the quarterback situation for Kansas City,” Sinisi says. “When you’re starting Tyler Thigpen, – and believe me Damon Huard is no treat – it raises some concerns.”

Sinisi is particularly concerned about the Chiefs’ odds in later weeks. He points out if Kansas City is getting six points from Atlanta, how many will it get down the road against the Chargers or Broncos?

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: opened -1, now -3 (line history)

Baltimore plays its first game since Week 1 after its match against the Texans was postponed due to Hurricane Ike. The game opened close to a pick, but the line quickly moved in the Ravens' direction. Sinisi says he actually opened up with the Browns as 1 ½-point favorites.

“I think this is more of an anti-Cleveland rather than pro-Baltimore move,” he says. “There was a lot of people thinking this was going to be the Browns’ year and they’ve really disappointed so far.”

Cleveland’s two games (both losses) have been broadcast to national audiences. Obviously the public is aware of the Browns’ early season shortcomings.

Raji

[Raji]

Heading into Week Three of the NFL please note these stats are definitely items to consider as you look at the deep NFL card. However, this does not mean these are “plays” in the true sense of the word. That said, the hope is that the ATS information below helps you as you “traverse” this week’s NFL card. As always, best of luck in all your sports gaming from Scott Rickenbach

1) The Battle of PA – Pittsburgh at Philly – The Eagles are just 5-9 after playing the Cowboys. They also are just 4-12 when hosting an AFC team and they’re hosting a Steelers club that is 9-3 versus the NFC. After Monday’s entertaining (but, for the Eagles, frustrating) game at Dallas, how much can Philadelphia really have left in the tank here.

2) They’re back…or are they? – Oakland at Buffalo – After last week’s 23-8 win at Kansas City we should all run up to the windows to plunk our money down on the Raiders, right? Probably not! Oakland is 6-15 when they’re a road dog outside their division. Also, the Raiders are playing this one in the Eastern Time zone where they’re just 5-12 in their last 17. Should one fear laying the big points with Buffalo? Not necessarily as the Bills are 12-5 at home under Coach Jauron. Also, Buffalo is 5-2 after a straight-up win and the victory at Jacksonville gives them some continued momentum heading into this week.

3) Dome Home on the Road – Carolina at Minnesota – Should the Panthers be faded after another tight win? Maybe not as the Panthers are indeed road warriors and Carolina is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games in domes. The Vikings might be so upset about blowing last week’s 15-0 lead against Indianapolis that they could be ripe for the picking here.

4) Best of the “Worst” – Jacksonville at Indianapolis – The Colts came very close to starting the season 0-2. The Jaguars have started the season 0-2. Of course these two teams are supposed to be two of the best clubs in the NFL but they each have issues early this season. What are the numbers here? The Colts are just 2-6-1 in their last nine games as a home favorite against a division foe. As for the Jags, they are 9-3-1 as an away dog against a division foe. Colts were fortunate last week and the Jags are not in a good mood so this is something to consider when looking at the fairly big pointspread in this one.

5) Sneaking up isn’t so hard to do – Arizona at Washington – The Cardinals are 8-4-1 in their last 13 road games and they have a tendency to sneak up on non-division foes who overlook them. The Cards are 9-5 in their last 14 versus a non-divisional opponent. As for the Redskins, they’ve shown a marked tendency to save their best for their divisional match-ups and overlook other opponents. The Skins have covered just twice in their last eight games as a home favorite against a team from outside of the NFC East.

Raji

[Wizard]

Now thats what I call "HANDICAPPING" This person is really serious and I like That!!


GLTU!!!

The Old Wizard has spoken

[Raji]

Thanks Wizard, I just try and post as much information as possible for everyone to use!

Good Luck!

Raji