NFL Underdogs and Public bets

[Raji]

If you’ve been following this column regularly in recent seasons, I’m sure you’ve noticed it’s been passed around as often as a beanbag during a heated game of hot potato.

Picking winning dogs may be a challenge, but certainly not challenging enough for me to turn down an opportunity to get on a soapbox once a week and tell the betting world the way I see things.

That said, I should inform you all that I am not a professional handicapper. I’m merely a passionate bettor trying to make a few extra bucks throughout the season to buy Mrs. Grewal flowers once a month.

Still, I encourage all readers to voice their opinions on my weekly picks. We need to keep this column spicy but please refrain from calling me any four-letter words during one of my cold streaks. We want to keep this a family-friendly environment.

Week 1 can be a challenging time for bettors. What we think we know about each team can quickly be proven wrong. The 2006 New Orleans Saints certainly made me reevaluate my preconceived notions.

I was certain the Saints wouldn’t win more than three or four games and there they were in the NFC championship game trailing the Bears by only four points at the end of the third quarter.

With that in mind I’m being somewhat safe with this week’s picks.

Just to give you an update, last season the betting battle tilted toward Goliath slightly over his smaller opponent David, as underdogs went 118-129 against the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (+3)

I know, I know. The Jags are Super Bowl contenders and might even supplant the Colts in the AFC South this season. For some reason these jungle prowlers turn into kitty cats against the Titans.

I recall quite clearly Tennessee travelling to Jacksonville last season as 7 ½-point underdogs and coming away with a 13-10 win. It’s true that was the Jags’ first game since the start of the David Garrard era but Tennessee has a complete defense that should frustrate Jacksonville’s QB.

Pick: Titans +3

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (-1)

The Seahawks do not play well away from Qwest Field but this is not a mid-season trip to the East Coast. Seattle has had plenty of time to adjust to the time difference and will be ready to start its defense as NFC West champs.

I like the Bills this season but I’m not sold on Trent Edwards as their savior. I think Buffalo fans are overly excited about the former Cardinal because he embodies everything J.P. Losman is not (steady).

Pick: Seahawks +1

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Aaron Rodgers finally gets his chance to silence all those Brett Favre supporters in Wisconsin when the Packers open at home this Monday. Too bad his first opportunity comes against the purple-people eaters better known as the Vikings.

Minnesota’s front four invoke all sorts of bed-wetting memories for young quarterbacks with Pat Williams, Kevin Williams and Jared Allen bringing the pain.

Rodgers will get his day in the sun but not this Monday night.

Pick: Vikings +3

Raji

[Raji]

NFL Football bettors don’t seem to have much faith in the Green Bay Packers and new starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers heading into the Packers’ season-opening NFC North showdown with the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.

Minnesota is a 2 1/2-point dog against Green Bay in the first game of a doubleheader Monday night, but the Vikings are getting more than 63 percent of bets placed on the game, according to Sportingbet.com.



Sportingbet.com’s David Main thinks much of the heavy action on Minnesota is fuelled by a major lack of confidence in Rodgers, who will make his debut as Green Bay’s starting quarterback three years after the team selected him in the first-round of the 2005 NFL Draft.



“Evidently, the public are expecting Green Bay to struggle with Aaron Rodgers taking over from Brett Favre,” Main said. “And they’re expecting Adrian Peterson to pickup where he left off after his amazing rookie season.”



The Vikings’ running back was voted NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year last season after breaking numerous franchise and league records for rushing yardage. That included the NFL single-game rushing record when he ran for 296 yards on 30 carries against the San Diego Chargers.



Rodgers has been thrust into the spotlight once dominated by Favre, the NFL leader in several passing categories, since Favre opted to come out of retirement in early August. Green Bay decided to trade the most prolific passer in NFL history to the New York Jets on Aug. 7 rather than have Rodgers ride the pine for a fourth straight season.



The betting action on Minnesota is one of the rare cases that bettors are siding with the underdog on opening weekend, said Main.



The Dallas Cowboys, a 5 1/2-point favorite against the Cleveland Browns, are getting a whopping 80 percent-plus of the action at Sportingbet.com for their tilt Sunday. The Detroit Lions, 3-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, are getting 73 percent of wagers.



Other public favorites include the Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-point favorites against Tennessee Titans (Jacksonville, 66 percent of bets); the New Orleans Saints, also 3-point favorites against Tampa Bay Buccaneers (New Orleans, 68 percent); and the Philadelphia Eagles, 7 1/2-point favorites over the St Louis Rams (Philadelphia, 71 percent).

“The majority of these are to be expected as favorites but the interesting one is definitely Minnesota to beat Green Bay as a 2.5 point dog."

Raji