Props Anyone?

[Raji]

If you’re like most bettors, you take a quick glance at the NFL props each week, only to be overwhelmed and move on to the more conventional wagering options.

It’s my intention to change the way you feel about props. Each week I’ll outline the best prop that I can find.

I always like to say that a little homework goes a long way and with prop bets you can often find value hidden beneath the numbers.

Cincinnati vs. Baltimore

Most pass receptions: Chad Johnson vs. Derrick Mason

Play on: Johnson

This isn’t the no-brainer it once was. Chad Johnson probably received more negative press than all other NFL players combined over the course of the offseason and the thinking is that he has one foot out the door in Cincinnati.

It serves us well, keeping the price in a reasonable range. I still believe Ocho Cinco has more to give and we’ll see him revert back to Pro Bowl form in 2008.

The Ravens defense continues to get older and weaker as the years progress. The pass rush and secondary are the biggest areas of concern, opening the door for a number of Palmer-to-Johnson hook-ups on Sunday.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh didn’t take part in any of the Bengals’ four preseason games and that makes him much less of a factor in the opener. That allows the Ravens defense to focus more on Johnson, but also means he should get a few extra looks from Palmer.

Derrick Mason is the Ravens’ No. 2 target behind Mark Clayton. Don’t expect him, or any of the Ravens receivers, to have big days in Week 1 with rookie Joe Flacco starting at quarterback.

Flacco still hasn’t developed much chemistry with his receivers, leaving Mason at a distinct disadvantage against Johnson.

Dallas vs. Cleveland

Longest rush: Play on Dallas

The Cowboys backfield has the opportunity to be something special in 2008. Julius Jones is gone, leaving Marion Barber as the feature back. We’ve all seen Barber’s ability to tear off long runs and I’m expecting a big game against the Browns behind an improved Cowboys offensive line.

First-round draft choice Felix Jones will also get in the mix. He was overshadowed playing behind Darren McFadden in Arkansas, but could actually turn out to be the more electric NFL back. I think it’s only a matter of time before either Barber or Jones busts out a monster run on Sunday afternoon.

As for the Browns, they’ll once again rely on the aging legs of Jamal Lewis to carry the load out of the backfield.

I expect the Browns to be a little more pass-happy in 2008. That’s what happens when you come off a full season with both Kellen Winslow Jr. and Braylon Edwards on the field. Lewis turned out to be one of the league’s most productive rushers a year ago, but I have to chalk it up as an anomaly at this stage of his career.

In ’05 and ’06 he ran for 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry (ypc) respectively before shooting up to 4.4 ypc last season. The Cowboys have a big, bruising group up front, one that can neutralize the powerful running of Lewis. I’ll go out on a limb and predict his longest rush in this game goes for 15 yards or less.

Arizona vs. San Francisco

Total Sacks: Play on San Francisco

With Kurt Warner as the Cardinals’ opening day starting QB, the choice is easy. He didn’t have much mobility at the peak of his career, and at this point, he’s nothing more than a sitting duck against teams that can generate pressure.

The 49ers recorded 15 sacks in four preseason games, and that was no fluke. This is a defense on the rise and one that can generate a pass rush in a number of different ways. The Cardinals O-line is still one of their biggest weaknesses and Warner will find that out first hand on Sunday.

The Cardinals recorded nine sacks in the preseason, with the majority of those coming from veteran Joe Tafoya. While 49ers quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan isn’t known as an escape artist, I liked what I saw from him in the preseason. He has just enough mobility to get himself out of dicey situations and shows excellent awareness under pressure.

He’s not the type of QB that will hold onto the football for an eternity (like Warner) before eventually ending up laying in a heap on the field. If there’s nothing there, O’Sullivan will get rid of it. That’s really all we can ask for.

The 49ers O-line is always an issue, but they are relatively healthy entering the season.

Houston vs. Pittsburgh

Most passing yards: Matt Schaub vs. Ben Roethlisberger

Play on: Schaub

You should be able to find some excellent value with Schaub in this matchup. Big Ben carries the higher profile, but I think the Texans are going to turn some heads this season, and it all starts with Schaub.

It’s no secret the Texans are going to air it out in this game. With Ahman Green still nursing lingering injuries and Steve Slaton not yet ready to shoulder the load at this level, the Texans have limited options at the running back position. The same can’t be said for their passing game, which I believe is poised for a breakout season.

Schaub should have a solid day against an overrated Steelers secondary. While the Black and Gold boast a hard-hitting group, they don’t have great cover guys. That spells trouble against a sneaky-good group of Texans receivers lead by Andre Johnson.

Roethlisberger will be as efficient as always, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a lot of passing yards. The Steelers run a smash-mouth, run-first offense, perhaps even more so now that Illinois standout Rashard Mendenhall has joined Willie Parker in the backfield.

Schaub likely would have thrown for more yards than Roethlisberger last year had he not missed five games. He’s healthy now, and he’ll out-sling Ben on Sunday.

Raji