 Line Moves Week One
It’s no coincidence that the two biggest over/under line movements in Week 1 have come on teams starting rookie quarterbacks.
Matt Ryan is behind center for Atlanta. Joe Flacco will be taking first-string snaps for Baltimore.
Hey, it could be worse for these clubs. At least their starting quarterback isn’t Brodie Croyle or wearing an orange prison jumpsuit.
Nonetheless, bettors have steamed the under in each case. The Detroit-Atlanta matchup has gone from 44 to 40 1/2, while the Cincinnati-Baltimore total has dropped from 42 to 38.
The line moves are understandable. Flacco was taking classes at Delaware three months ago. His entire NFL career consists of six quarters of preseason football.
It’s by default Flacco is starting. Veteran Kyle Boller is out for the season with a shoulder injury and Troy Smith has bad tonsils. In addition, Baltimore’s offensive line is in transition and its top running back, Willis McGahee, is questionable with a knee injury.
If you like the under just be aware the Bengals’ offense is capable of covering this total by itself if it keeps dropping and dropping, considering the Ravens’ secondary is a mess. Star safety Ed Reed is out and cornerbacks Samari Rolle and Chris McAllister are banged-up.
Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are an upper tier wide receiving tandem whether they’re 100 percent or not, especially with Carson Palmer throwing to them. It’s not a surprise early money also has come on Cincinnati. The Bengals are now the favorite after Baltimore opened minus one.
Those firing away early apparently don’t think much of Ryan and a bad Atlanta team, whose projected regular-season win total of 4 ˝ is the lowest of any club. The Lions have gone from minus one up to a field goal favorite against the Falcons. It’s the first time in 24 road games, Detroit is chalk. The Lions have been road favorites a grand total of four times this decade.
“I don’t think Detroit should be laying three to any team on the road,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that makes the line for many of Nevada’s hotels.
Don’t look for the Falcons to be “Air Ryan.” They’re going to pound on the ground with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. The Falcons were among the top-five rushing teams during preseason.
The Lions were the only unbeaten team in preseason going 4-0. Unfortunately they are 31-81 in the regular season in the Matt Millen era, otherwise known as the “era of bad feelings.”
Two other quarterbacks are slated to make their NFL starting debuts, J.T. O’Sullivan of San Francisco and Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay.
The Arizona-San Francisco line hasn’t moved much. The Minnesota-Green Bay line, though, has gone from Packers minus three to 2 ˝ and even two. The total has dropped from 39 to 38.
“That doesn’t surprise me,” Seba said about the strong early play on the Vikings. “There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I’d hate to be him.”
Already Rodgers has caught a bad break as the Packers don’t expect to have injured center Scott Wells. That’s especially rough when going against the Vikings’ stout interior defense.
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