NFL Week one Notes

[Raji]

The NFL preseason is over, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn anything about the upcoming season. Quite the opposite. There were plenty of changes that took place that required notice.

For instance, the Colts defensive line was thin in preseason with the retirement of Quinn Pitcock, creating a void at defensive tackle. They gave up 153 rushing yards in the opener to Washington. Raheem Brock, a 27-game starter at tackle the past two seasons, has been moved to left end in the base defense and apparently will remain there even with Pitcock's decision. As the season gets going, keep an eye on the Colts run defense.

In New York, new QB Brett Favre has created some excitement coming aboard for the Jets. Jets coach Eric Mangini and OC Brian Schottenheimer like to spread the field on offense, throw the ball deep downfield to keep secondaries honest, which will create bigger gaps on the defensive line with which to run. In theory, this makes sense as Favre has a stronger arm than departed QB Chad Pennington. Favre also admitted the Jets offense 'is totally different' from the Packers system he was in the last 16 years.

However, Favre is past his prime and has had a reputation the last few years of throwing it up for grabs downfield too often. He had an impressive 2007 campaign, but that was with a trio of young, talented and fast Green Bay wideouts. The Jets don’t have that. Let’s see what Favre brings to the offense in September and if the Jets running game finds bigger holes – or if Favre returns to his turnover prone ways. Whom do the Jets face in September? Back-to-back games against stellar defenses New England and San Diego.

Stopping opponents on their first possessions of halves was a consistent problem last season for the Arizona Cardinals, and it continued through the first two games of the preseason. The Saints and Chiefs each scored on their first drives of the game and of the second half. In all, the Cardinals yielded touchdowns on the two possessions against the Saints, and field goals against the Chiefs. Poor tackling, penalties and a bad kickoff have all contributed to the Cardinals problems. They got better in Week 3, though, on ‘defense.

Baltimore has the same problem as last year – no QB. Second-year QB Troy Smith showcased his mobility in preseason, but is still raw. In one game, he rushed for 35 yards, or 10 more than he passed for. He threw just five passes - and one interception - in four series. On the pick, he threw behind Mark Clayton, who deflected the ball to Minnesota's Darren Sharper.

Kyle Boller, meanwhile, didn’t have a good preseason and the third alternative is rookie QB Joe Flacco. No matter how much talent on the field a coach is given, so much hinges on the man behind center.

Seattle became a passing team first in the second half of last season behind QB Matt Hasselbeck. However, Hassellbeck had back spasms in preseason and missed time. Plus, they also have WR concerns: WR Bobby Engram will miss six more weeks with a cracked bone in his right shoulder and WR Deion Branch is seven months into what is typically a nine-month rehabilitation following reconstructive knee surgery.

All this cropped up in preseason and is worth watching. Remember that one year ago the Jacksonville Jaguars changed their offensive philosophy in preseason.

Head coach Jack Del Rio junked the old offense by adding offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, the former Boise and Arizona State head coach. Koetter brought in a wide open spread offense and improved the attack considerably. The Jags were a good bet over the total last preseason and that carried right over into the regular season.

The Carolina Panthers have made changes on offense. They asked their offensive linemen to bulk up this offseason, as coach Jon Fox is a proponent of a power running game. They are loaded in the backfield and the Panther running game was dominant this preseason. A year ago they changed to zone blocking under first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson, but it’s clear they are returning to a more smash-mouth style in 2008. Changes and shifts in August can help handicappers with keen eyes at the betting windows in September.

Raji

[Raji]

So the NFL exhibition season is in the bank, and bettors have learned . . . nothing.



The few front-line quarterbacks who ventured out onto the field handed off a few times to running backs who did not make 53-player roster, then grabbed a baseball cap and clipboard on the sidelines.



After Cleveland’s Derek Anderson was jacked up in the Browns’ Aug. 18 exhibition game against the Giants, most starting QBs have been sequestered in the witness protection program. Same thing with other key players, especially at the skill positions.



All of which makes it that much more difficult to figure out whether to give or take the points in Week 1. Will Peyton Manning be able to move the Colts after not taking a snap in the preseason? Ditto Tom Brady in New England.



So where to put the mortgage money?



Randy Scott, sportsbook manager at betEd.com, says that taking the points is almost always a wise move.



Most money is placed on favorites, and the figures can run as high as 67 percent of the betting public taking the better team and giving the points. The number is less important than betting on their favorite team. As money is laid down on favorites, it tends to nudge the number up even higher, which makes backing the dog even more of an advantage.



“Underdog bettors are unlike the general public bettors,” says Randy Scott, sportsbook manager at betEd.com. “Underdog bettors are disciplined to use every advantage possible. [With the points] underdogs provide a natural advantage.



“A golden handicapping rule when betting underdogs and favorites is that three things can happen to a favorite. Favorites must play well (win) and cover the spread in order to win your bet. On the flip side, three things can happen to an underdog (win, lose, lose but cover) and two of them are good.”





Taking advantage of underdogs early in the season can be profitable because, as Steve Merril of ProSportsInfo.com points out, oddsmakers make their living adjusting point spreads as the year progresses. The Patriots were bet up to 22 points last year before the bottom fell out in December. Overall, says Merril, dogs and favorites have covered at pretty much a 50/50 clip, although 2006 was tough on the books because the favorites held sway.



With that, three Week 1 games that might be opportunities for underdogs:



Tampa Bay (+3.5) at New Orleans. No one knows turmoil Gustav will create in the gulf, but the Saints had to travel 800 miles north to Indianapolis just to practice. This is a big early game in NFC South and should be close.



Cleveland (+4.5) at home vs. Dallas. First of many nasty games for the Browns. Losing at home could open up a cut that may be hard to close. Barring a rash of turnovers, Cleveland should be able to keep it to a field goal game.



Kansas City (+16.5) at New England. This might have been a 24- or 25-point line if it was in the middle of last November. Jump hard if the line moves up a half-point. With both feet in the unlikely event it rises to 17.5.

Raji

[Raji]

It’s very hard to look past the New York Giants in the opening game. The line opened at -3 with Sports Interaction and has more or less held its own, which surprises me a little. It’s like people don’t believe in the Giants, like they think the Super Bowl was a fluke.

I don’t think the Super Bowl was a fluke and even if I did, I still think the Giants have enough in the locker for Washington. The Redskins look like a team that’s about to hit a great, big, blue iceberg. Jason Campbell is expected to run a 700 page playbook for a coach that’s never even been a co-ordinator before? And all the while Jim Zorn has got the owner up in the executive box with Bill Cowher or who knows who else on speed dial? Giants to cover and lay down a marker in the first game.

Sports Interaction has seen a lot of action on the Jets at Miami game, what with Brett Favre under center for the Jets and Chad Pennington facing his old team as the new Miami quarterback. The Jets are a road favorite which makes me uncomfortable, but not so uncomfortable as I’d back Miami. It’s not like the Fish improved after Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas left town, even though those men no longer enjoy the full bloom of youth. What I do like, actually, is the over in the game. Sports Interaction has set the total at 36, and that looks a little on the low side to me. I’ll be taking a chance on the over here.

It’s surprising to me that Chicago is such a big dog at Indianapolis in the Sunday night game. Sports Interaction has the Bears at +9.5 and the early money favors Chicago, but I’m just having trouble buying it. I’m not saying that the Bears are a great team – they’re not – but nine and a half is a big number, especially for Indianapolis, a team that doesn’t rub it in the way New England does, and a team that has Peyton Manning coming back off knee surgery. Manning is the best quarterback in the game but everybody’s got to crawl before they can walk. My dollar says that Manning’s timing will be off in his first game back allowing Chicago to cover the number.


Raji