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NFL ****BEST BET Atlanta over Baltimore* by 9 (Thursday)
Falcons’ QB Chris Redman spent some time in the Baltimore organization, and in 2003 was on his way to supplanting Kyle (Ugh!) Boller as the starter until suffering a torn labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder. At the present time, Redman is vying with rookie Matt Ryan for the starting job in Atlanta. Guess what? No rookie head coach wants to start the season with a rookie quarterback. No veteran head coach would want to do that, either. Forget the headlines praising Ryan and suggesting that he will start the season opener. Redman will be given every opportunity to do well in this game, against a defensive system he has some familiarity against, and as an NFL veteran he is more likely to get the ball downfield than Ryan, who is simply being asked to dink-and-dunk it (15-for-21, only 103 yards at one point vs.Tennessee). Meanwhile, because Boller currently has every edge he could possibly have in the supposed battle to be the starter in Baltimore (most experienced holdover remaining, challengers are named Troy Smith and Joe Flacco – please!) the Ravens figure to be using Smith and Flacco way too much in this game for anyone with money on the Ravens to feel comfortable about. Under Brian Billick, Baltimore was a pre-season monster for many years. But John Harbaugh is in a different situation than Billick was, and after Troy Smith missed his scheduled start and game action vs. St. Louis with a viral illness, it’s a setback for the Ravens’ offense because his practice snaps with the first unit were completely wasted, and Smith is now “short” by about six series of game action.ATLANTA, 22-13.
***BEST BET Oakland over Seattle* by 8 (Friday)
Perception is that Oakland is terrible, which they are. But reality is that NFL teams coming off two straight August losses, the most recent defeat by 20 points or more, are now 10-4 ATS.We knew that fact going into Green Bay’s game at Denver last week, intentionally blew it off, then paid the price. So, fool us once, shame on us. Sure, the Raiders got shut out last week. But the defense played well, picking off Arizona’s Matt Leinart three times. Oakland’s own QB Jamarcus Russell completed four straight passes to open the game after the Raiders came out in a shotgun formation with no running backs.“No matter what the down and distance was,we were out there throwing the ball,” Russell said. “It was pretty fun.” It didn’t get them any points a week ago, against Arizona’s starters. But when you practice something against better players, you generally get better results doing it again vs. lesser players, meaning the Seahawks’ second- and third-teamers. Also, they won’t be winging it as indiscriminately.“Unfortunately I think that I saw what I already knew,” said coach Kiffin.“If we try to just throw the ball around you are going to get penalties, you are going to get your QB hit, he is going to start running around a lot, he will be in trouble.”The Seahawks scored 34 and 29 points in their first two pre-season games and are dealing with a short, Monday to Friday week here.The Raiders, who have the bigger upside after totaling only 18, 16 and 0, will have two extra days of practices and much more urgency to see some positive results. OAKLAND, 21- 13.
**PREFERRED Buffalo* over Detroit by 11 (Thursday)
Dan Orlovsky, Lions’ back-up QB, is sort of a Mr.August. He has played many pre-season quarters with Detroit’s second- and third-stringers, and put plenty of points on the board with them. But with Detroit’s #3 QB Drew Stanton out injured, the Lions will probably trot out Drew Henson, recently signed, and stick him under center for too many series, to help them get through this game. In Henson’s most recent attempt to get back in the NFL last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars chose Todd Bouman over him in late October. Before that, the Vikings, who had nothing at QB last August, didn’t want him, either. The Bills are going at this off a short week after coming home from Indianapolis late Sunday night and the Lions are 3-0 SU in the pre-season so far. That will probably drive money onto the Lions for this affair. Not buyin’ into that. Coming off their 26-6 win vs. Cleveland last week, you see that the Lions were beating bad Cleveland QBs named Ken Dorsey and Brady (Big Head, Small Contribution) Quinn.The third pre-season game is supposed to feature the starting QB, which was Derek Anderson, but he had gotten hurt the prior week and was held out as a precaution. BUFFALO, 23-12.
Kansas City* over St. Louis by 6 (Thursday)
The Chiefs are a very young team coming off a shutout defeat, so they figure to come out and play with their hair on fire. The Kansas City offense had the ball for 33 minutes at Miami last Saturday night, so it’s not like they were overmatched in the 24-0 loss. One Miami score was a Ted Ginn punt return. Another came on a 22-yard drive off a turnover. Another came off the opening drive of the game: 65 yards in 15 plays, covering 10 minutes, a drive that represented 37% of Miami’s possession time for the entire game and included seven runs by Ricky Williams, the guy who needs the most work on Miami.The final seven snaps came from inside the Chiefs’ 10, but the Chiefs held for a field goal. So, not to worry, Chiefs.You’re fine, after allowing only 272 yards for the entire game despite coughing it up 4 times on offense. The Rams’ 24-10 victory vs. Baltimore last Saturday night was accomplished vs. only one quarterback on the other team, and that quarterback was a raw rookie Joe (I Got Us 10 First Downs the Entire Game!) Flacco.You’ll note that coming off a loss to Miami in Week 2, Jacksonville won at Tampa last Saturday night. So, here you go again. KANSAS CITY, 19- 13.
CLOSE CALLS Philadelphia* over NY Jets by 3 (Thursday)
More aggression on defense is being seen from the Jets, who made three experienced NFL quarterbacks go down frequently in their win vs. the Giants. If they play it the same way, Philly’s relatively raw statue Kevin Kolb will be under siege many times. "He's played well," Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg said of Kolb. "I think he has a chance to be pretty good." He does, but with Kevin Curtis out and Reggie Brown hobbled, the Eagles offense might be tempted to force too much action the way of rookie WR DeSean Jackson, and Kolb might have to go down in self-preservation mode, or fling it where it don’t belong.However, that’s “if” they play it the same way.The Jets open the regular season with a pair of games vs. AFC East foes.That’s what they are preparing to do, not to beat the Eagles, who look ahead to the non-division Rams. PHILADELPHIA, 17-14.
New England over NY Giants* by 1 (Thursday)
The Giants, 1-2 so far in August, open the regular season early, with a big, Thursday night home game vs. NFC East rival Washington. By contrast, the 0-3 Patriots get a breather vs. the punch-less KC Chiefs. The Super Bowl result carries very little relevance for this match-up, nor does the thinking that,“New England is 0-3, they will want to win to avoid a winless pre-season!” They might win anyway, but as CB Ellis Hobbs says, "The season hasn't even begun.We're 0-3 in the preseason but we're still 0-0." Brady hasn’t played yet,who knows if he’ll show here? Last year, Bill Belichick used only 42 of his 75 players, none of them first-stringers, in the final pre-season game, which was a 27-20 win over the Giants. NEW ENGLAND, 20-19.
Washington* over Jacksonville by 2 (Thursday)
The Redskins open the regular season early in New York.The Jags also drew a divisional foe, at Tennessee. Both are more important games than others for both sides. So this will be a vanilla affair on one or both sides of the ball for each team, with no telegraphing of what might be forthcoming on opening day. But with the Jags coming off a win, and the Redskins coming off a 47-3 loss,Washington head coach Jim Zorn indicates that Redskins’ starters will play more than anticipated. However, it may not matter because his offense is not ready for prime time.WASHINGTON, 16-14.
Indianapolis* over Cincinnati by 9 (Thursday) T
he Bengals’ offense got only 10 first downs against the New Orleans Saints defense last Saturday night. Granted, some of the reason was because New Orleans had the ball for 33.5 minutes. But Indy’s offense is known for keeping it away from the other side, too, and their defensive depth is a lot better than New Orleans’, and Cincinnati’s for that matter. The Bengals, who need to fix their entire defense, have been concentrating on stopping the run first.As a result, a week after giving up three completions of at least 40 yards to the Lions, they allowed five such vertical gainers to New Orleans. "The passing game has been our Achilles heel, no question," said head coach Marvin Lewis.The Colts have a good enough passing game, Manning or no Manning. INDIANAPOLIS, 23-14.
Carolina over Pittsburgh* by 3 (Thursday)
Carolina is blitzing all over the place.With Charlie Batch still sidelined with a broken collarbone and Ben Roethlisberger unlikely to see action here, the Steelers figure to be using the recently signed, immobile, and not very good QB Byron Leftwich under center, and raw rookie Dennis Dixon, too. RB Willie Parker is a huge factor in the Steelers’ offense, but in Week 4 he is also likely to be a ghost. Can you see the train wreck coming at Pittsburgh? CAROLINA, 16-13.
Cleveland* over Chicago by 1 (Thursday)
“Lovie Smith to toughen Bears’ practices,” said the headline after Chicago allowed 37 points to San Francisco last Thursday night. But the Browns will be doing the same following a 26-6 no-show defeat at Detroit. "We have to up our level of intensity and aggressiveness as far as doing whatever it takes to get better," said RB Jason Wright. Fine and dandy, but the Browns’ so-so depth at quarterback, and throughout their defense, are big factors in creating the big scoring nights for opponents in August: 24, 37 and 26 points surrendered so far.The Bears have actually scored 20+ in all three pre-season games so far, as they continue to attempt to ramp up the offense before it fails as usual in the regular season. CLEVELAND, 24-23.
Dallas* over Minnesota by 3 (Thursday)
For the Cowboys’ ex-Viking QB Brad Johnson, an ageless NFL veteran, may see plenty of action. Even though it’s a practice game, Johnson will be pumped to play against the back-ups of the Minnesota coaching regime who let him go, and he still needs to cement the #2 job. However, the Vikings’ defenders know that Johnson can only dink-and-dunk them and that the Cowboys will not be putting him into seven-step drops so that he can be sacked like a potato and unavailable in the regular season as Tony Romo’s back-up.Therefore,we see no 35-yard TD throws into the end zone from Johnson in a grind of an offensive game for both sides.DALLAS, 16-13.
Tampa Bay over Houston* by 2 (Thursday)
When it’s a game of back-ups vs. back-ups, we’ll have to give Tampa Bay’s defense the edge.The system has been in place for ages, and the younger players have been tutored by All-Star veterans for a while. Houston’s defense hasn’t had an identity since the expansion franchise was granted five years ago. Bucs’ #1 QB Jeff Garcia was awful last week vs. Jacksonville, as promised here. But if he plays here, he’ll play better dropping down in class of opposing defense. Behind him, both Brian Griese and Luke McCown have reps in the system with Bucs’ second-teamers.TAMPA BAY, 19-17.
New Orleans* over Miami by 4 (Thursday)
Wouldn’t the Dolphins have to be feeling a little too good about themselves after consecutive wins, set up by the running of Ricky Williams against no-care defenses, and now be susceptible to the best overall offense they will have faced in the pre-season? With RB Ronnie Brown projected to miss opening day vs. the division-rival Jets,Williams will probably be protected in this game, especially since he has had a pair of productive and promising games back-to-back. NEW ORLEANS, 20-16.
Tennessee over Green Bay* by 4 (Thursday)
Packers’ #1 QB Aaron Rodgers figures to play only two series to help reduce the chance of being targeted for tactical violence by an opponent they play in Week 9 of the regular season.The guys behind him are rookies, Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm. That can’t be good. Is it true that Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher intends to use this game as a dress rehearsal for the regular season, instead of a slop game? Vince Young vows to be more of an emotional leader in the locker room as the team prepared for this game. ''We need to have more excitement as an offense and have some fun,'' Young said. ''I'm going to be one of those guys to bring a little more excitement out and to have fun making plays. I have always been one of those fun guys trying to get guys loose, but I have been kind of quieter and I need to get the guys looser. Guys were going through the motions, doing what the play says, but we need a little bit more out of everybody, period.” Interesting.TENNESSEE, 17-13.
San Diego over San Francisco* by 3 (Friday)
Despite a bunch of injuries to key starters, the Chargers won their way into the AFC Championship Game last season.That’s because they have the best depth in the NFL.The 49ers have some of the worst depth in the NFL. So, in a game which, by design, pits depth vs. depth, you’d have to be just a little afraid of going against San Diego, especially with San Francisco ready to bounce down after scoring 37 points at Chicago. San Diego’s defense got 30 INTs to lead the NFL last year, and San Francisco represents an immature opposing offense with a coordinator (Mike Martz) who is force-feeding some wild-and-crazy passing to them. SAN DIEGO, 20-17.
Arizona* over Denver by 7 (Friday)
Who wants to rely on the Broncos’ defense to make a big stop for them? Don’t all raise your hand at once.With so much coaching and personnel turnover on that unit over the course of the last three seasons, it’s just not a good idea to be expecting them to consistently get stops. Green Bay and Houston just got 20 and 21 first downs against them, and those opponents use the same zone-blocking offensive system that Denver’s defense has been practicing against for ages. So, with Arizona QB Matt Leinart looking to bounce back after another humbling performance that helps to prove what a long-term bum he will be, Denver’s defense provides this bum with a chance to fool the world with some good stats in this outing.ARIZONA, 24-17.
Bobby O |
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