Colts Preseason

[Raji]

History suggests the Indianapolis Colts are a sorry play for backers in these exhibition games with 3-14 straight up and 4-12-1 against the spread record since August of 2004. That is not the case according to head coach Tony Dungy. "(Preseason games) always mean something," Dungy said. "Coaches, I think, are looking at different things. We haven't won nearly as many preseason games as I would have liked to. People think, 'Aw, you don't care about winning.' I think it's always important to win.

"But, more than that, you are looking for different things. You're looking for how the guys that you're going to count on, how they play. And then you're looking for new guys to step in, young guys to step in, and do well in certain situations."

Dungy’s perspective is how the second and third units play. “The thing about the preseason, a lot of times the winning and losing depends on how you're second and third group plays. They're playing the majority of the game and how they finish. I think (preseason games) tells you a little bit about your depth and what you're getting out of those units," he said. ‘So you can't always read into the score. But you want to see how the flow of the game is and how you're doing compared to the other guys you're playing, whether it's your first group or your third group.”

Dungy has made it relatively easy to wager against the Colts in the preseason and who could argue with his methods, since Indianapolis is 21-0 and 15-6 ATS in September and October the last three years.

What is compelling to know is how Dungy and the Colts staff look at the value placed on the next to last exhibition game. They are 5-1 SU and ATS record and it goes back to Tampa Bay, with Dungy-coached teams 9-1 SU and ATS since 1998.

Buffalo will still show up, though might not be at full strength. Starting quarterback Trent Edwards is considered questionable for Sunday evening after colliding with running back Marshawn Lynch in practice earlier in the week. Edwards' injury is not believed to be serious, but he did sustain some knee soreness.

The Bills have been dominated statically in two games, being out-gained by nearly 90 yards a contest. The run defense in particular has been meager allowing five yards a carry in 52 attempts. Coach Dick Jauron will try to shore up this area quickly and is probably thrilled he won’t be seeing Peyton Manning who reported to practice this week. That means Jim Sorgi will be taking the majority of the snaps for the Colts

Books have Indianapolis as 5.5-point favorite, with total at 38. Buffalo is 6-0 against the number in last six roles as underdog. They also fit a remarkable preseason system that says to Play Against home favorites who were out-rushed by their opponents by 40 or more yards a game on the season. (Colts 109 to 176 yards rushing) This system is 14-2 ATS since 1999.

The NFL Network will broadcast this AFC encounter starting at 8 Eastern and will be showcasing the 63,000 Lucas Oil Stadium, holding its first event, replacing the RCA Dome. Interesting to note Jauron coached teams are 0-7 ATS in next to last preseason game and 7-0 OVER.

Buffalo at Indianapolis, 8:00 ET NFL
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS as an underdog
Indianapolis: 3-0 Over as favorite

Raji