Superbowl props

[Raji]

If you’re half as excited about the Super Bowl as we are, you’ll want to do a little more than the usual pointspread and over/under betting. The Vegas and offshore books are offering a range of interesting prop bets for Sunday’s showpiece game and the informed bettor can cash in on some hidden value.

We’ve spoken to oddsmakers at several big books to find out what the most popular Super Bowl props are and we add our picks for each one.



1. First touchdown scorer



The consensus among the books is that this is most popular prop bet for the Super Bowl. The far and away favorite is New England’s Randy Moss (+330), who had 23 touchdowns this season. But even the books admit there is better value in this market.



“People are betting on Randy Moss and the reason for that is because he’s such a potent deep threat,” says Francis Doyle of Sports Interaction. “But if you’re looking for a value bet, I would think about New York’s Plaxico Burress (+700) – they’re both very similar players”



Two things are worth noting before betting on Randy Moss or any New England player: Moss is without a touchdown in the playoffs and the Pats have given up the first score in three straight games.



For that reason, we’re going with Giants running back Brandon Jacobs (+600). That pick is reaffirmed by the fact that he scored the opening TD the last time these teams met (Dec. 29).



Pick: Brandon Jacobs (+600)



2. Player to win MVP



Again this is a market dominated by an obvious candidate: Tom Brady. The books are reporting a heap of action on the two-time Super Bowl MVP and he’s priced accordingly at -225.



“There have been some shocks in MVP choices in the past, like Desmond Howard, maybe, but generally it goes to the winning team’s star player,” Doyle said. “So it’s no great surprise that Brady is such a short price. The bettors are just eating it up.”



By that standard, Eli Manning (+500) is a sure thing for the award if the Giants manage to win the Super Bowl. But the Patriots have a few darkhorses. Randy Moss (+800) could be in the running if he can break out of his recent slump, while Laurence Maroney (+800) comes into Sunday in great form and could be a surprise pick.



The nature of this market is that the team who wins generally has the MVP, so we are going to make a pick for each team. You can decide who you think will win the game.



Pick: Eli Manning (+500) or Laurence Maroney (+800).



3. Which team will record the first QB sack?



This is a market that seems tailor made for the Giants’ dominant defense, so it’s surprising to find that the Patriots are favored at -150. The Giants are currently priced at +120 to record the first sack on Sunday.



These two teams were miles ahead of the rest of the NFL in sacks this season. The Patriots had 47, while New York had a league-high 52. The Giants had three players inside the top 25 in sacks – Osi Umenyiora (14.0), Justin Tuck (9.5) and Michael Strahan (9.0).



That form seems to have carried over into the postseason for the Giants defense, which had two sacks against Dallas quarterback Tony Romo and one against Bucs QB Jeff Garcia. If Tom Brady’s ankle injury slows him down a step or two, the Giants could get at him early.



Pick: New York Giants (+120)



4. To score a touchdown anytime



While the ‘first touchdown’ market is somewhat based on luck - like who gets the ball first - the anytime TD prop is a great opportunity for bettors to make the books pay.



Based on the fact that the Patriots have the most powerful offense in the NFL, their big offensive weapons are priced pretty short. Randy Moss is at -300, Laurence Maroney is currently at -200, and Wes Welker is at -140.



But there is value in tight end Ben Watson (+150), who has six touchdowns for the season and two in the recent playoff game against Jacksonville.



On the New York side, the betting is led by Brandon Jacobs (-140), while Plaxico Burress (-130) and Amani Toomer (+150) are available at slightly more tempting odds.



This is a market in which it easy to fall into the trap of chasing the bigger odds. It’s best to stick with players who have scored consistently throughout the season, so for that reason we’re going for Giants receiver Plaxico Burress.



Pick: Plaxico Burress (-130)



5. Team to score first and final outcome



This is one of the most interesting props we’ve seen and it has some very tempting odds. The Giants to score first and win is priced at +700, but for them to open the scoring and lose is available at +250.



New England to score first and win is currently offered at around -550 and for the Pats to score first but lose the Super Bowl is way out at +1000.



Based on what the Pats have done so far in the playoffs, one option stands out. New England has given up the first score, but recovered to win, in both of its postseason games so far. It also did the same in its only regular season meeting with the Giants.



Pick: Giants to score first but lose (+250)

Raji