Super Bowl Picks

[UMDBookingRook]

ok guys. I thought this game was a no brainer when the line first came out. That being said, after 2 weeks of of the media blasting us with the Giants kool-aid (a la Ohio State vs. LSU), I'm not as confident. As of 9:00 am CST today, Sportsbook.com has lines posted of 54.5 for the Over/Under and -12.0 Pats. The money is spread as so :

Giants 68% side, Giants 83% money, Over 60%.

I love where the public is, vegas loves where the money is, don't be left out cashing in today. Going without real game analysis, there one betting situation where you can cover yourself for a percieved push or a 2 bet win. Giants/Over - Giants only need to score 21 points and you can't loose. The fundamental question is, can the Patriots keep the G-men under 21 points? 21 points is the magic number for people playing the Giants and the Over.

Let's talk analysis now. The Giants are averaging 22.7 ppg, 295.7 yards on offense and 17.0 ppg and 290.3 yards on defense in the playoffs. The key factor is that after having a negative TO margin in the regular season, the Giants are now +5 TO margin for the playoffs. Eli hasn't been turning the ball over, which has led to media praise. That being said, he hasn't been doing anything to win games for his team (177, 140, and 246 passing in the 3 playoff games). The rushing game really has not been all that impressive either (100, 90, 134 in the 3 playoff games). Looking at the stats, I really don't know how they are here. The area that does look good for the Giants statistically though is the Defense and the Special teams. The defense has given up 69, 154, and 28 yards rushing and 202, 182, and 236 passing in the 3 playoff games while causing 6 turnovers. Special teams has been huge for the Giants starting field position and LVSC predicted over 200+ return yards for the G-men today.

The Patriots on the other hand are averaging 30.0 points a contest and 380 yards per game while giving up a surprising 22.3 points a contest and 325.7 yards per game. New England is sporting a +1 TO margin through 2 playoff games. The Pats have put up 145 and 149 rushing yards and 258 and 198 passing yards the past 2 games. Defensively, the Pats have given up 80 and 104 yards rushing (against 2 great rushing teams) and 270 and 207 passing while causing 4 TO's. The Pats have also had good starting field position.

Everyone wants to go back and look at week 17 to analyze this game. I think it only provides some brief insight to the game. The Giants are currently on a 5-0 ATS streak while the Patriots are currently on a 0-5 ATS streak.All the games during this Pats 0-5 ATS streak have occurred in cold New England or New York climates however.

This is tough. -12 for the Pats is a tough number. You almost have to take the Giants by default since it's so many points. That being said, I am probably going the opposite. Here's my reasoning. First and foremost, the Pats have had 2 weeks to prepare and are back playing in weather they were playing in the first half of the season when they were winning by 21 a contest. Second, the media loves the Giants, you almost feel retarded not taking the Giants and the points. Thirdly, Plaxico's "prediction" and "knee", new Spygate regulations. Plax didn't do his team a favor by predicting a 23-17 score. I doubt his knee is of any concern also, but if he did go out, Giants are done. You take Plax out of the playoffs and the Giants dont' get passed the 1st round. Also, remember what the Pats did after the first Spygate allegations? What do you think they are going to do now on the biggest stage, with the most on the line?

I believe the game will go as follows. The Giants HAVE to score first or answer the Pats first score. They cannot afford to go down 7-0 and then not answer. I expect a "probing" start by the Pats with rushes and short check downs initially. Around the 8th-12th offensively play for NE, expect the play action deep to Stallworth, yes Donte! For those playing the under, you really want the Giants to live up to the challenge. I, along with everyone else, feel the G-men have to control the clock, meaning alot of Bradshaw and Jacobs (probably more Bradshaw). The NY recievers are going to be put into tough 3rd down situations where they will be asked to keep the chains moving. Whether the G-men can make those conversions or not will determine the outcome of the spread. By half I feel the score will be 17-10. 2nd Half will be all Patriots. Pats will be patient and pick their shots, the Giants will be forced to play catchup and the streak of no TO's for Eli will end. Eli will throw for about 250 with 3 picks today I feel. Jacobs will have about 50-60 yards, Bradshaw near 100 (possibly alot more if he busts one). The Pats offense will be the Pats offense. Kevin Faulk or Wes Welker will be the MVP!!

So what is my play? Patriots 35 - New York 17

Patriots -12 (2 units)
Under 54.5 (8 units)

[BangTheBook]

Great writeup UMD if I wasnt a huge Giant fan you would have swayed me without a doubt. You know which way I have to go. Best of luck on the under! Enjoy the game

[UMDBookingRook]

The true bet with the spread is whether or not you think the Giants can put up 21 on the Pats brotha. It's a tough call too!

[Raji]

Great writeup!

I am going to through a few on the under!

Raji

[Bobby O'Shea]

Awesome stuff and glad we are both onthe Pats!

Bobby O

[UMDBookingRook]

Goodluck guys! I'm off to rip it up. Looks like the Under is finally starting to get some respect by % changes so far this morning, same thing with the Patriots. I hope this the fabled "smart" money! Have fun guys, after tonight, it's like 5 months of depression, exculding March Madness.

[UMDBookingRook]

All I can say is wow. Great Super Bowl, although I was rooting for perfection and for someone to murder mercury morris. now we have to deal with him forever people. The Giants offense did exactly what I expected....nothing. But credit has to be given to the Giants D, truly they are what won the SB for new york. That being said, a profitable day for I. Damn that under was locked. 54 was WAYYYY TOO much.

oh yeah, Vegas got crushed today!

[BangTheBook]

LOL my friends and I have been the biggest die hard Giants fans since birth and at the end of the day we were like now we have to listen to Mercury Morris for years to come. What the Dolphins did was amazing and they have every right to say what ever they want. They earned it!

[UMDBookingRook]

what am I supposed to bet on now?