 Book Report
Wondering what’s going on at the sportsbooks a few days before the Super Bowl? Covers.com checked in with a couple books to see what their handle’s been so far and what they are expecting in the coming days.
What’s the action been like so far? Are you seeing increased betting as we get closer to Sunday?
Bill Nevin, BetUSA.com oddsmaker: I would say 95 percent of the action is on the day. Generally the only people betting now are sharps or people who are going to be away from their computers or phones at the weekend. Most people only start to think about a Super Bowl wager at about lunchtime on Sunday.
Ken White, Part-owner of Las Vegas Sports Consultants: So far so good, the early wagering has been about average. But we can expect about 80 percent of the overall handle to be wagered on Super Bowl weekend.
Francis Doyle, Sportsinteraction.com oddsmaker: The action has been fantastic. A team going for the first perfect season since 1972 against a team from the biggest city in the USA. What’s not to like there?
Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton, Executive Director Race & Sportsbook: So far the action has been very steady to good. Very difficult to measure year-over-year, but it feels like the action is heavier compared to last year.
Where’s most of the action coming in on: the points or the chalk? over or under?
Randy Scott, Sportsbook Manager, BetEd.com: The early action has been based on the pointspread. When the line opened at -13 the early bettors came in heavy on New York and there was only light betting on the New England side. That made the line drop to -12 ½ , then -12 and now -11 ½. This week is different, New England bettors are beginning to get down - and with confidence. The per-bet volume ratio for this game is 2-to-1 in favor of the Giants, yet the bet amount per side is almost even. That means Patriots backers are betting more money.
Bill Nevin: All the early money was for the Giants but as the week has gone on the support has all been for the Pats. At 10 a.m. today 81 percent of the pointspread wagers are on New England -12, and 56 percent of the cash has been on the over.
Ken White: All of the early wagering has been professional money on the New York Giants. The injury news concerning Tom Brady led professionals to take an early lead. Most professionals are siding against a slightly inflated line for the Patriots anyway, so the news of Brady in a walking boot pushed the sharp money to the window. Early total action was on the under, however since this past weekend more money has shown up for the over creating balance action.
Francis Doyle: The line was set high initially on the basis that squares would eat up the chalk. This has not happened, and the Giants are proving quite a popular pick. Even the general sports media are giving the Giants far more of a chance than they gave the Patriots themselves against the Rams six years ago. People believe in the Giants. So far.
Jay Kornegay: We still are seeing a steady flow of Giants money. The line has been holding at Patriots -12 but even at this number 75 percent of the action has been on the Giants. The moneyline continues (as expected) to see majority of the money coming in on the underdog Giants. We are currently at -430 on the Patriots and +370 on the Giants. Once we drop it to -420 we start to see more Patriot money wagers.
David Staley, Spokesman BetUSA.com: The action is picking up more and more every day. The early bettors are still pounding the Giants as only 21 percent of the early bettors think the Patriots will cover the 12-point spread. This high number is a little surprising considering the public usually bets the favorites and have pounded the undefeated Pats all year. Then again, they’ve covered just once in their last eight games and the Giants have covered five straight and seven out of their last eight. The public is also deviating from their normal pattern as the majority of the money (56 percent) is on under 53 1/2.
How much action are you expecting for game day?
Randy Scott: Sunday will draw 50 percent of the overall expected action. Meaning our action will double in volume on that day.
Bill Nevin: We expect to be up about 10 percent on last year. It’s not a total glamour tie but it’s good to have New York represented as it boosts handle. It is always best when it is two big city teams in terms of handle, but I think this is an interesting matchup so the handle will be reasonable.
Ken White: I expect the state of Nevada will surpass the record handle of 94.5 million.
Jay Kornegay: Approximately 80 percent of the action comes in the last couple of days.
Do you think the line will hold firm until kickoff? If not, which way might it move and why would that be?
Randy Scott: I think we'll see a steady increase in action stay on the Patriots as the weekend approaches. That should raise the line back up to the opening number, maybe more come Super Bowl Sunday.
Bill Nevin: Twelve seems like a pretty solid line unless there is any injury news. Our linesmakers would be reluctant to move off that unless the public became really caught up with the Pats.
Ken White: With Tom Brady looking more like himself and general public money outweighing professional money on game day, the line will go back up to 13 or 13 1/2.
Francis Doyle: We’re expecting action all the way to the kickoff and beyond, but we expect the line to hold steady. We’ll be doing live betting during the game which we expect to be popular too.
David Staley: Not sure about further line movement. I doubt it will move much more, who knows though. If does move, you’d have to think Patriots bettors will get the value.
Jay Kornegay: I think the line may drop a little bit more but not much. We are anticipating that there is Patriot money out there but it hasn’t arrived at the counters yet. But, most of the public is on the Giants so far and most of the public hasn’t even bet the game yet.
How about prop bets? Which ones are bettors flocking to?
David Staley: Props as always are getting plenty of early action. Considering we have well over 300 props, bettors are having a field day. One interesting trend I’ve noticed is that not only are the majority of bettors backing the Giants (+12) but they are backing various Giants player/team props and betting against certain Pats props. For example:
Will the Plaxico’s total receptions (4.5) opened at over -115, under -115 but since the early bettors pounded the over, it quickly moved to over -145, under +115.
Jay Kornegay: The props have been getting good consistent action. Most of the early large plays have been on props when “sophisticated” money is playing both sides of a certain prop. Some of the early one sided action is: Yes that both teams will have a FG of 33 yards or longer, over on sacks by both teams, Eli’s first rushing attempt over 1.5 yards, Brady’s first rushing attempt over 1.5 yards, and Giants will have the first 1st down of the second half .
Raji | 
They are waiting for the ten--i don't see it happening w/o buying a point.
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