 Line Movement
This Super Bowl line is starting to make everybody a bit nervous.
At the open, most linesmakers had the New England Patriots favored by just under a couple of converted touchdowns. Then New York Giants bettors weighed in, flooding sportsbooks with underdog bets on Sunday and early Monday, forcing books to drop the line gradually. It bottomed out when celeb paparazzi scooped sports sleuths with footage of Tom Brady limping to his super hot model girlfriend’s New York apartment with flowers in hand and a walking cast on his right foot.
Patriots fans held their collective breath (the Golden Boy with a wonky wheel? No, it can’t be!), while bettors piled on the Giants, keeping the line around 11 ˝ until word came out that Brady had ditched the boot to get down at Butter, a swanky New York nightclub. Gisele must have wagged her finger while filling him in about the dress code.
Now bettors figure if he’s feeling well enough to get on the good foot out on the town with his GF, he’s probably fine to take some snaps 10 days from now. So the line’s yo-yoing itself back up to around 12 or 12 ˝ points, depending on where you look.
Really, Brady’s foot is a non-issue. Early action was on New York when the fat line opened anyway – the whole boot bonanza just added to it.
At the open I figured that was way too many points to be giving a Giants team with this much momentum working for them. Plus, these Pats have been seeing inflated lines for months now and I’ve never been much for playing double-digit favorites in the NFL in general.
But now it’s hard to say where the line moves from here. Square bets from the average Joe will surely move this line in New England’s direction on Super Bowl Sunday because, well, they’re the favorite team in the Super Bowl and there’s unprecedented hype surrounding the possible perfect season.
Before that, though, it’s hard to tell. These Giants from New York are gaining on the Patriots in terms of sexy betting options and the Big Apple market definitely makes a difference in the court of public appeal.
Even if Eli may not be the Manning of choice for the big game, he’s still a Manning. And bettors like Mannings. Especially when just about every NFL analyst would throw their own grandmothers out of the way for a seat on the Eli bandwagon at this point. Toss in the New York-Boston rivalry that just won’t go away, Michael Strahan’s charismatic sound bites for the media and the rematch card that comes from Week 17’s thriller, and you have the recipe for one hell of a saucy underdog bet.
But when do you play it, or a Pats bet for that matter? That’s the question everybody’s trying to figure out.
So maybe, because of all these factors, the line doesn’t move that much in favor of the favorite this time, bucking the traditional Super Bowl trend. I don’t know. Nobody does.
We do know by best estimates that this game could crack $100 million in betting in Nevada alone before kickoff, so it’s going to have to end up somewhere. To me, that means we haven’t seen the last of these line moves. I’m not going near this line until it settles a bit and considering all of these subplots that might not be anytime soon.
Keep an eye on those odds. I’ll get back to you in a week.
Raji | 
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