 Seattle @ Green Bay
Seattle @ Green Bay – 3:30 pm
When the line first came out at Green Bay -9.0 and the over/under of 40.0, I think everyone and their mother felt Seattle +9.0 and Over 40.0 was the play. That being said, I still think it’s the play, even with the media falling in love with the Packers and Favre all week. The mantra has been Seattle is experienced and has Holmgren, while Green Bay is young and talented. Dick Vermeil was even on The Herd or Mike and Mike (one of the two) and asked flat out what he’d rather have, talent or experience. He said talent. We have an early lesson on this too (see LSU vs. OSU). That being said however, the Packers aren’t -4.0 favorites with a dropping line. They are -9.0 favorites with a dropping line. I initially capped this game at -6 to -7 for GB before the lines came out and said -7.5 for GB would be a no brainer and ideal Seattle play. Needless to say I like the line.
Statistically these teams are pretty equal. The season offensive and defensive statistics are within non-significant discrepancies. One stat that stands out is the TO margin, Seattle is +10 while Green Bay is +4. I am leaning to Seattle for the Defensive advantage. Seattle also has the advantage in regards to special teams, with better starting field position. Green Bay is also the 2nd most penalized team in the league, something you can’t have in the playoffs. One stat that is pretty remarkable for Green Bay is their 3rd down conversion rate though. Green Bay converts 42.6% of 3rd downs while Seattle only converts 35% (which is on the low end). There are 5 common opponents between these teams (Washington, Chicago, St. Louis, Carolina, Philadelphia), and when comparing the stats head to head, they are very VERY similar. Most of the final scores are very similar with usually only a +/- 7 points total in comparison.
This game could get out of hand if Green Bay can get up early (14 unanswered). If that happens, Seattle will be forced to abandon its already unimpressive run game and go exclusively to the pass which is trouble against a Packers defense that will unleash Kampman. If Seattle can somehow match whatever blow Green Bay has, or even jump out to a quick lead (a la Ohio State), they can very well win the game. Green Bay is not a come from behind team in my opinion. In games they’ve won this season, after the first 4 games this season, they have scored early and dominated the momentum of the game. It should be mentioned also that Green Bay hasn’t played anyone of notice (besides Dallas) since October 14th against Washington (a game they should have lost). The Packers haven’t been in a close game since Denver on the road. I feel this team has become complacent and buying into the media telling them how good they are. The talent on Green Bay might end up getting them the win this weekend, but I don’t think it gets them the cover. Weather may not or may not been an issue. Reports are saying cold, but no crazy winds or anything which bodes well for Seattle and the Over. I’ll crackberry something from the parking lot. The safe play is to play Seattle and the over as Seattle.
Prediction: Green Bay 27 – Seattle 24
SEATTLE +8 (4 units)
OVER 41.5 (3 units) | 
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