MNF Info

[Raji]

It’s the last Monday nighter of the season and our NFL analysts still have plenty to jaw about. Pardon any underlying disdain for Denver from our writers. This is the third time our boys have broken down the Broncos. At least you don’t have to hear about any man-crushes this time around.

The Chargers have won and covered in four straight contests. Has San Diego rediscovered its mojo?

Ashton Grewal: San Diego is flying high because Norv Turner went back to what this team has always done well – running the ball. The left side of the offensive line (Marcus McNeil and Kris Dielman) is much better at run blocking than protecting Phillip Rivers in passing downs.

I’d feel better about the Chargers’ postseason chances if I knew for sure OLB Shawne Merriman and DE Luis Castillo would be 100-percent healthy.

Regardless, I feel much better playing the Chargers now that they have a successful offensive philosophy.

Ryan Stetson: It really shouldn’t take an NFL fortune teller to figure out that handing the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson 25 times a game is a good idea. I’m glad the Chargers figured it out because watching Rivers get sacked is only fun for so long. Then it just gets annoying and a little uncomfortable, especially when he looks like he might cry.

If the Chargers don’t forget they’re a running team, they’re going to be tough to beat. A little more from Antonio Gates and Chris Chambers wouldn’t hurt though.

It may be shocking, but Denver is the best over bet in the NFL. Is over the right play again this week?

Ashton Grewal: The Broncos have not been able to figure out a winning defensive scheme. One gap or two gaps, it doesn’t matter. Opponents find holes everywhere, leading to big gains.

The Broncos’ offense has big-play ability off play-action because of the steady ground game.

I like the over in tonight’s game because of perfect weather conditions, two rising young quarterbacks and the Broncos’ suspect defense.

Ryan Stetson: Normally you expect Denver to control the clock with a solid running game while shutting teams down with great cornerback play and some timely blitzes. Not this year.

That translates into a ton of overs. When you add a San Diego offense that looks to be coming around again, it’s hard not to like the game going over the number.

Is there any way Denver’s hideous run defense can prevent LaDainian Tomlinson from running wild?

Ryan Stetson: I can’t believe we have to talk about the brutal Broncos one more time. This is really getting painful.

I don’t think many teams can hold Tomlinson down. Even if the Broncos do slow L.T. they’ll still have to deal with Michael Turner and Darren Sproles. That’s bad news for Broncos bettors. Again.

Ashton Grewal: I have to agree with Stetson on this one. The only way the Broncos slow down the ground game is if they stack 53 men in the box. I’m pretty sure that’d be a pretty, except for the too-many-men-on-the-field problem. Still, it’s the only chance Denver has.

San Diego shellacked Denver in the last two meetings by a combined score of 89-23. Does the trend continue or do the Broncos put up a better fight this time around?

Ryan Stetson: I’ve been saying all year that it was going to take some time for the Broncos to figure out their new defense. Well, time’s up. This gap-control defense has too many gaps.

Denver’s struggling with its identity and it’s Week 16, for the love of Elway. This team’s dead in the water.

Ashton Grewal: There’s no denying that the Chargers are a much better team than the Broncos. But you never know what can happen in these late-season divisional games. Denver doesn’t have anything to play for but I’m sure the players would love to stick it to San Diego.

I think Denver covers the number but San Diego wins by a field goal.

Who you got?

Grewal: 27-24 Chargers

Stetson: 31-17 Chargers

Raji

[Raji]

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-9, 47)

All to play for

At first glance, there’s not much on the line in this week’s Monday nighter. Denver is out of the playoffs while the Chargers have already clinched the division. But both teams insist they still have unfinished business.

The Broncos are seeking revenge for an embarrassing loss earlier this season. The Chargers came to Denver in October and recorded a 41-3 victory, which had Invesco Field almost empty by the fourth quarter.

“This is the NFL and some people think it’s above pride and issues like that, but it’s not,” safety John Lynch told the Colorado Springs Gazette. “That was humiliating and embarrassing.”

The Chargers secured their fourth straight AFC West title with last weekend’s 51-14 blowout win over Detroit, but they still need a victory Monday to secure the No. 3 seed for the playoffs.

That would ensure that if they win their opening game of the postseason, they would avoid having to go to New England for the second game. Instead, the No. 3 seeding would see San Diego face Indianapolis in the climate-controlled RCA Dome.

“There are a lot of different scenarios, so I'm not going to be caught up in that,” Chargers coach Norv Turner told the San Diego Union Tribune. “We want to go win our next two football games.”

Merriman ready

Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman claims he will feature in Monday night’s game after missing last weekend’s win over Detroit with a sprained left knee.

"I've been doing pretty much everything the whole week," Merriman told reporters after Saturday’s practice. "I feel good, I'm moving around good and I'm expecting to play."

Merriman has been pestering medical staff and his coach all week to let him play, saying he couldn’t stand being on the sidelines last weekend.

"It drove me nuts," he said of missing out. "I didn't know what to do. But hopefully I won't be sitting this week because I've been practicing all week."

So the deal is that he wears a brace on the knee in order to get some playing time.

"Sometimes it hampers my change of direction and it prevents me from doing certain things," he said of the brace. "But I'll be good."

Merriman is not the Chargers’ only injury worry this week. Defensive end Luis Castillo (ankle) and running back Michael Turner (shoulder) will be game-day decisions, while defensive tackle Jamal Williams (ankle) is listed as questionable.

Tomlinson turns it around

San Diego lost three of its first four games when LaDainian Tomlinson made a slow start to the season. As soon as his form improved, the Chargers started winning. They are now on a four-game streak.

"Sometimes you just have to let the course of a season play out," Tomlinson told The Associated Press. "At some point it has to happen. That's just how it is. For us not to be doing it, it's happening now.

“It's just coming at a later time, you know what I mean? And for us, it's great, because if we can be hot going into the playoffs, Whoa, Nellie! Whoa, Nellie!”

Tomlinson ran for a total of 130 yards and one touchdown in his first three games, two of which the Chargers lost. During the current streak he is averaging 129 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

He has 1,772 yards for the season and is battling Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker for the rushing title. Last season’s league MVP is now looking forward to getting it done in the playoffs.

"We'd like to say we're definitely a contender. We've got to prove it," Tomlinson told AP.

"When you get to the playoffs, it's totally different. You've got more pressure on you and also less room for error, and so you've really got to take advantage of your opportunities. When we get there, that's one thing we're going to talk about."

Head to head

The Chargers have won, and covered, in three straight games against Denver. They are also an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against AFC teams. The last three meetings have gone over the total.

San Diego is 9-5-0 ATS for the season, while the Broncos are 4-10-0. Six of the last seven Broncos games have gone over the total.

Raji

[Raji]

With the AFC West division title already in hand the San Diego Chargers will look to notch their tenth win of the season Monday night when they host division-rival Denver. With a win over the Broncos and a win next week at Oakland the Chargers would finish 11-5 and own the third seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs. That would mean a first-round game at home versus the #6 seed, which figures to be either Cleveland or Tennessee. A loss in either of those two games and the Chargers would likely fall behind Pittsburgh into the #4 seed and have to host Jacksonville in Round One.

Either way, the Chargers are back in the playoffs after losing their playoff-opener to New England last year 24-21 at home. That disappointing result, which followed a 14-2 regular season that earned them home field advantage throughout the playoffs, led to the firing of coach Marty Schottenheimer. The club then opened with three losses in four games under new coach Norv Turner including a 38-14 Week 2 loss at New England and the team's only home loss of the season, 30-16 to Kansas City in Week 4.

But a 41-3 win at Denver on Oct. 7 started their turnaround. San Diego has won eight of 10, including a 51-14 rout of Detroit last week that improved the club to 9-5 straight-up and ATS. The win over the Lions was the Chargers fourth straight win and cover. They dropped Baltimore at home 32-14 as a 9.5-point chalk to start the streak. Then came a 24-10 win at Kansas City as a 5.5-point favorite and a 23-17 win at Tennessee as a 2.5-point choice before the win over the Lions. The Chargers are also 6-1 at home, S/U and ATS, where they are scoring 28.4 points/game and allowing 15.1.

They will also be shooting for their fourth straight win over the Broncos and a second straight sweep of the season-series. Last year the Chargers won 35-27 in Denver as a three-point underdog then 48-20 at home as a 7.5-point chalk.

Meanwhile Denver eliminated itself from playoff contention by losing three-of-four games and come in with a 6-8 record and a 4-10 spread mark. It lost at Chicago 37-34 as a one-point dog to begin the tailspin, lost the following week at Oakland 34-20 as a 3.5-point favorite, rebounded to thrash Kansas City at home 41-7 as a 7.5-point chalk then lost a week ago Thursday in Houston 31-13 as a three-point dog. On the road Denver is 2-5 with a 1-6 spread mark, winning only at Buffalo in Week 1 15-14 and at *4-10 Kansas City in Week 10 27-11.

The Broncos went 9-7 in 2006 to miss the postseason for the first time in four years. They'll now watch the playoffs from home in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2001-02. Denver is trying to avoid its first losing season since going 6-10 in 1999 after winning back-to-back Super Bowls but has been inconsistent all season. It won its first two, lost five-of-six, won two in a row to get back to .500 at 5-5 but now have lost three-of-four. Their spread record shows they have been over-rated for much of the season by the oddsmaker.

They average 21.1 points/game and allow 26.2, 19.4 and 29.9 on the road. Denver's offense is ranked near the top of the AFC with 353.9 yards/game but its defense is in the lower third at 336.4 yards/game. San Diego's offense (318.4 yards/game) and defense (327.4 yards/game) are both in the middle of the AFC pack but that's due in large measure to the club's slow start.

Raji

[Raji]

Denver at San Diego, 8:30 EST ESPN
Denver: 2-9 ATS vs. division opponents
San Diego: 17-6 ATS off a win by 21+ points

San Diego started the season 1-3 and looked a lot closer to the New York Jets than a team that had won 14 games a season ago. Yet as any good football does, the Chargers buckled there chin straps and realized they had to go to work, winning possession by possession, until they started winning games and understand how opponents were attacking them. To San Diego’s credit, they did just that and have now won and covered four straight games, becoming AFC West champions in the interim.

Quarterback Phillip Rivers is hobbled, which has caused a greater dependency on the offensive line. The results have been scintillating as they have rolled up 613 yards rushing in the last three games. It is hardly a coincidence that since Nick Hardwick returned to center, the line has improved. This could mean the 29th ranked Denver run defense is going to get a first, second and third Christmas Eve helping of the San Diego running game led by LaDainian Tomlinson.

The 16th ranked defense has had into moments playing well and playing poorly, but no disguising the fact this Chargers defense are ball-hawks. After the sluggish start, the San Diego defenders have forced a minimum of two turnovers in the nine of the last 10 games and are +19 in turnover margin in that time period. The Bolts are especially tough off a big victory; being 12-3 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more.

Early in the season, despite injuries, the Denver rushing game was able to function with different running backs and linemen going in and out of the starting line-up. Once defenses were able to disrupt the rhythm of the Broncos run game, this placed added significance on Jay Cutler to play very well even with a lack of experience. Though the ranking of sixth is still exceptional, scoring 21.1 points is hardly remarkable. The good drive, bad drive inconsistency of the offense is further brought to light by a defense that needs “The Clapper” to try to shutoff opposing offenses. This all plays into Denver being 9-21 against the spread the last two seasons.

Denver is out for a taste of revenge after being pulverized 41-3 at home in Week 5 by San Diego. Division games normally bring out the best in the revenge-minded underdog and the Broncos will want to turn around 2-9 ATS mark versus AFC West foes. Denver is 21-31-2 ATS on MNF over the last 24 years and San Diego is 15-10 ATS in same timeframe.

The San Diego running game has come around as Tomlinson has made his typical late-season push. With two division tilts left, San Diego will want to keep momentum building and are 22-9 ATS when they rush for 125 to 150 yards. For bettors this has more a money line feel, with the SU winner of this AFC West battle 19-1-3 ATS.

Our top Monday night football system is to Play On any team the out-gained a division opponent by 100 or more total yards in the previous meeting in the same season. This system is a merry 16-5 76.1 percent and the capability of being a real stocking stuffer.

Raji