NFL Total Plays and Trends-Week14-

[Raji]

I have been knocked out of fantasy football for the year. I was in two pools and didn’t make the playoffs in either league.

The worst part was the insulting cast of nimwits who made the postseason ahead of me. College football writers, hockey enthusiasts and passionate CFL fans all proved to be better NFL fantasy players than this disgraced writer.

I needed Wes Welker to pick up five points on Monday for me to pick up the last playoff spot. The Patriots’ receiver was averaging 12 points a week until my time of need. His three catches for 18 yards weren’t enough.

As a result our copy editor, who knew next to nothing about football before joining the Covers team, pocketed the sixth seed and bragging rights over yours truly.

I’m sure the little twerp is snickering right now as he proofreads this rant.

I’ve been humbled. But I won’t let this happen again, even if it comes at the expense of my work. Columns come and go, but winning a fantasy championship is the sort of thing you want written on your tombstone.

Watching the games over the weekend, I couldn’t help but wish I had drafted a few of the players standing out in the crowd. Here are the game breakers that are now on my radar for next year’s fantasy season. Hey, it’s never too early.

· Adrian Peterson sure makes would-be tacklers look silly. The rookie back showed no lingering effects from his knee injury in his first game back. He danced around Detroit defenders while sporting a brace over his knee. As good as Peterson is, NCAAF writer Tim Roberts contends Arkansas’ Darren McFadden is a better athlete and will take the NFL by storm next season. I’ll have to remember his name when constructing my team of destiny this summer.

· I remember accidentally picking Brandon Lloyd instead of Braylon Edwards a couple years ago in a draft. I didn’t sleep well for a week. I don’t want to think about how I would have punished myself if I’d made the same mistake this season. Edwards is making good on the potential he showed coming out of Michigan. Every time I see him play, I picture him running in a San Francisco jersey. I daydream about the possibilities had my 49ers taken Edwards with the first overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft.

· You can’t blame Baltimore’s dreadful season on Willis McGahee. The Ravens traded for the tailback last offseason hoping McGahee could improve a deteriorating running game. The former Buffalo Bill is enjoying is finest year as a pro and has been one of the NFL’s most consistent runners. What he did against New England (138 rushing yards) shouldn’t be a surprise to any one.

This is an over/under column so I guess I should quit all the nerd talk. Here are the numbers I’m going to play this weekend:

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions – under 51 ½

Detroit’s offense is on the rocks. Coordinator Mike Martz’s vertical attack has stalled over the last few weeks. Receivers running deep routes aren’t being found because Jon Kitna is getting whacked less than two Mississippis after the snap.

Wideout Roy Williams won’t be playing anytime soon because of a sprained PCL. Williams’ starting partner, Calvin Johnson, still doesn’t look comfortable and won’t be able to pick up the slack.

Dallas will score often but I don’t think Detroit will hold up its end.

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers – under 41 ½

My gut feeling is the Packers are going to run the ball much more than they normally do. Brett Favre is banged up and Green Bay can ill afford another injury to its starting quarterback.

Head coach Mike McCarthy will likely have tight ends and running backs blocking on passing downs for Favre.

Green Bay is expected to have key defenders Charles Woodson and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila back this weekend, so don’t expect any more heroics from Oakland’s Josh McCown.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons – over 43 ½

Bettors don’t have to do much digging to find out why the club many picked to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl is 5-7. New Orleans’ defense is as leaky as a cheap coffee filter. The unit has surrendered the second-most number of plays of 20 yards or more (42) and the most over 40 yards (12).

The Falcons will find the end zone several times thanks to that deficiency. Look for Atlanta’s Roddy White to be the main beneficiary. The third-year wideout is enjoying a breakout year and should be able to get the better of New Orleans’ secondary.

Last week’s record: 1-2

Season record: 22-17


Raji

[Raji]

Sunday, December 9th

Carolina at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 17-6 ATS away in December
Jacksonville: 7-0 Over off a road game

Dallas at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Dallas: 10-2 Over as a road favorite
Detroit: 18-7 ATS off 3+ ATS losses

Miami at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Miami: 1-8 ATS vs. division opponents
Buffalo: 17-6 ATS at home off a win as an underdog

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST
NY Giants: 10-2 ATS away vs. conference opponents
Philadelphia: 6-0 Over playing with same-season revenge

Oakland at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 1-10 ATS in December
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS this season

Pittsburgh at New England, 1:00 EST
Pittsburgh: 15-5 Over off an Under
New England: 14-5 ATS playing on artificial turf

San Diego at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 6-0 Over after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Tennessee: 17-6 ATS off a division home win

St. Louis at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
St. Louis: 34-17 Over vs. non-conference opponents
Cincinnati: 1-5 ATS after scoring 14 or less points

Tampa Bay at Houston, 1:00 EST
Tampa Bay: 9-2 Under off BB wins
Houston: 1-5 ATS off a loss

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 EST
Arizona: 15-6 Over in road games
Seattle: 1-9 ATS revenging a loss as a road favorite

Minnesota at San Francisco, 4:05 EST
Minnesota: 16-6 Over off 3+ games scoring 25+ points
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off a road game

Cleveland at NY Jets, 4:15 EST
Cleveland: 9-2 ATS off a road game
NY Jets: 12-4 Over off a division game

Kansas City at Denver, 4:15 EST
Kansas City: 8-1 ATS playing with revenge
Denver: 1-9 ATS vs. division opponents

Indianapolis at Baltimore, 8:15 EST NBC
Indianapolis: 18-6 ATS off 3+ wins
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS vs. AFC South opponents

Raji