Monday Night Info

[Raji]

seems like the Patriots are on primetime more often than Seinfeld reruns. Turns out our pair of opinionated NFL writers still have more nice things left to say about New England.

How will the Patriots respond after the close call against the Eagles? Does it make New England a better bet this week?

Ryan Stetson: I think so. Great teams go on streaks in which they blow everybody out of the water, but ultimately, they need to know they can win a dogfight every now and again too.

I don’t expect motivation to be an issue for these Patriots with Spygate in the rearview mirror and the ’72 Dolphins’ record looming not far away. But a good scare can’t hurt.

Ashton Grewal: The Patriots are a better bet this week but it has more to do with the competition more than anything that happened last week. Philly has shown the ability to score in bunches (remember that 56-21 walloping of the Lions?) whereas Baltimore … well I’ll get to that later.

Is it time to bury Baltimore’s storied defense?

Stetson: Maybe for this year. The Ravens still have some fantastic playmakers on defense – the real problem is they’ve been forced to field a different secondary every week because of injuries. This defense obviously isn’t as good as previous years, though it’s not nearly as bad as it’s looked recently either.

It’s not like the offense is helping much. When the defense is on the field for close to 40 minutes a game, it’s going to be tough to make tackles in the fourth quarter.

Grewal: I’m afraid Baltimore’s storied defense won’t return to form next season or maybe ever. The unit has aged and not like a fine wine. Ray Lewis, Chris McAlister, Kelly Gregg, Samari Rolle and Trevor Pryce are all on the wrong side of 30 and Ed Reed isn’t too far off.

The Ravens will be challenged to sign free agent Terrell Suggs in the offseason. The Pro Bowl DE/ROLB most likely will be commanding Dwight Freeney-type money.

I am thinking we are seeing the beginning of the end of Baltimore’s dominating ‘D’.

New England has played over in six of its last seven games despite some lofty totals and now has recorded nine overs this season. Are you crazy to bet under a Pats total at this point?

Stetson: Absolutely nuts. Oddsmakers started hanging modest 40-point totals on New England’s games to start the season before realizing what kind of offensive steamroller this team is. Now we’re looking at yet another total that will probably end up on the plus side of 50 – and I’m playing over.

New England can move the football in so many different ways with so many different weapons. These Pats can run the ball better than most people realize, it’s just that they haven’t had to yet because there isn’t a secondary in the league that can contain their receivers. Nice problem to have.

Grewal: The thing that makes New England such a good over bet is the pace at which they play. The heavy-pass offense means big yardage with minimal time taken off the clock. The Pats went no-huddle for their first drive against the Eagles and we could see more of that down the road.

I can’t remember last time I saw a Ravens game where the total was above 50, but I still like the over.

Is Brian Billick the main problem with Baltimore’s offense?

Stetson: Now that Steve McNair’s on the bench, probably. Billick should have realized that Steve McNair was through earlier than he did. The coach’s play-calling makes you scratch your head a few times a game, though GM Ozzie Newsome is more to blame for an offense seriously lacking big-play guys.

If he drafted better and Baltimore had a few more horses in the stable maybe Billick wouldn’t be answering questions about whether being a 20 ½-point underdog at home is motivation for his club.

"Motivate to make a bet? Or to play the game? I'm not a bettor,” Billick told reporters. “I don't know how all that works. Is it a Ouija board or some monkey pointing at a board with a dart? Is it something like that?"

Grewal: I couldn’t disagree with you more, Stetson. Ozzie Newsome regularly drafts great players and Brian Billick just doesn’t know what to do with them.

Billick is a fraud. He was labeled as an offensive genius thanks to the stellar cast of talent in Minnesota. He’d never have gotten a head-coaching gig if it hadn’t been for Randall Cunningham, Robert Smith, Cris Carter and, especially, Randy Moss.

Hell, I’d look like the next Bill Walsh if I were the one calling plays for those guys back in 1998.

Billick should be on the hot seat but he just signed an extension last year. That means he’ll probably be the captain when this ship sinks.

Who you got?

Stetson: 38-13 New England

Grewal: 41-17 New England

Raji

[Raji]

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+20 ½, 51 ½)

Ravens ‘D’ strongest against wrong threat

Baltimore’s defense is supposed to be formidable.

It has allowed a fourth-best 291 total yards per game this season. That success, however, doesn’t translate to a more important team stat. The Ravens are leaking 22.1 points per game, a mediocre number that seems to rise every game. Over the last four contests they’ve let opponents pile up an average 31 points.

Now this defense must contain uber-powerful New England. Baltimore is a 20 ½ -point home underdog.

“That’s just like a boxer wanting to go against a champion,” Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan said in a press conference this week.

The motivation should be there, but does Ryan’s unit have a chance?

Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss is coming off a rare bad game. Last week, Eagles cornerback Sheldon Brown kept Moss to just 43 yards receiving and no touchdowns. Baltimore safety Ed Reed will need to stay deep and do the same Monday. The Ravens’ Pro Bowler has five interceptions this year and certainly boasts the skills to pull it off.

"He's a ballhawk. He covers so much ground back there,” Pats quarterback Tom Brady told the Sun Chronicle on Saturday.

Reed will need a big game if he’s without teammate and cornerback Chris McAlister, who is listed as questionable.

Another area of optimism is Baltimore’s success at stopping teams when its back is against the wall. The club has allowed touchdowns from the red zone just 34 per cent of the time. And Baltimore’s run defense remains stifling, allowing just 77 yards a game.

The Patriots hold the ace however. With so many passing weapons, Brady & Co. can just skip the ground game. Baltimore’s strongest hand may not even factor.

My old stumping grounds

Adalius Thomas was a key component of the Ravens defense for six seasons before signing a lucrative deal with the Pats last offseason. When he enters M&T Bank Stadium he’ll suit up in the visitors locker room for the first time.

The multi-talented defender couldn’t wait until Monday night to start hitting his former teammates. He suggested in a recent interview with Sports Illustrated that the Ravens are more interested in personal honors than team goals.

Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis took exception and called Thomas a “coward” on his radio show.

Thomas could be in store for a strong finish to the season. He’ll assume the outside linebacker role now that Rosevelt Colvin is done for the year. Thomas’ pass-rushing abilities have mostly been underused thus far so this is a great opportunity for Thomas to show why he’s worth all the money.

Fumbling through the season

The good reputation the Ravens built up last year with a +15 turnover ratio is in tatters so far this season. Baltimore’s current turnover ratio (minus-11) is the league’s worst. Its 19 lost fumbles – by far the most of any NFL team – is costing the team wins.

Ravens head coach Brian Billick said turnovers could be especially costly against New England.

"The Patriots certainly don't need a short field to continue to do what they're doing, and that's been our nemesis,” Billick told the Boston Globe.

Billick’s quarterbacks are responsible for many of the gifts. Kyle Boller, expected to start Monday, has tossed five picks and fumbled away the ball three times.
It is his task to beat a New England defense that has 25 takeaways this year. The Patriots own a league-leading plus-16 turnover ratio.

Whatch you talkin’ ‘bout Jaworski?

There’s a reason Tom Brady is highly respected in the New England locker room, and it’s not just because he gets all the hot women. Brady has never said a bad word about any of his teammates. This past week was no exception.

ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski accused Pats wideout Randy Moss of taking multiple plays off during Monday night’s near loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

“When I went through the tape, it was the first time that I was personally disappointed in a Randy Moss performance,” Jaworski told reporters. “I did not see the same energy on every single play that I had seen so far this season.”

Brady doesn’t agree.

“I don’t think that’s true at all,” Brady told the Boston Herald. “He’s never taken any plays off. He’s everything we hoped he would be. People have said the most negative things about him, and they continue to bash him. He’s just a very mature man that goes about his business and works extremely hard.”

Sounds like Brady and Moss are best friends forever.

As if the Pats weren’t enough

The Ravens face four first-place teams in the final five weeks of the season. After New England, they host 9-2 Indianapolis. Their last two games of the year are against Seattle and Pittsburgh.

Baltimore’s only relief may be a Dec. 16 visit to Miami to play the Dolphins.

Raki

[Raji]

Baltimore have fallen on hard times, sitting at 4-7 SU with a sickening 1-10 ATS thus far. The offense is anemic and the defense has failed to reach what has become the level of expectation built off the tremendous success of recent seasons. The ineptitude is measured in the fact Baltimore has committed 19 fumbles this season (highest in the NFL) and is a desultory -11 in turnover margin, the worst among the 32 teams in the league. At this rate the Ravens are going to give the Pillsbury a run for there money.

The offensive line has been one of the consistent issues all season. The durability (or lack thereof) of Jonathan Ogden, as he continues to pile up injuries with advancing age, leaves a void as does the slower then expected progress of rookie Ben Grubbs. The guards lack the ability to get much push, being a big reason why RB Willis McGahee has run behind a line only averaging 99 yards a game compared to other teams that have allowed 118 YPG. Kyle Boller is an upgrade over fast slipping Steve McNair, yet he has the same number of touchdowns as interceptions (5) and doesn’t perform well until his team is two or more scores behind. Pass catcher Derrick Mason has been steady all season with 79 receptions, but his two touchdowns are more reflective of the overall conundrum.

Turnovers are volatile aspect of football. Last year Baltimore took the ball away 40 times, this season just 17, which is easily in the bottom half of the league. The Ravens have had cornerbacks Chris McAlister or Samari Rolle either play hurt or miss significant time and when they needed the defensive line to dominate like in the past, they have failed. Last year’s 60 sacks would have been a welcome with inexperienced corners thrust into action, instead a measly 22 has exposed a severe weakness that even San Diego’s Philip Rivers was able to take advantage of last week in 32-14 thumping. In comes the New England aerial force that makes the Blue Angels look like just another air show. Baltimore is 6-20 ATS when they allow eight or more net passing yards per attempt.

The fall from grace is astounding, especially for backers of Brian Billick at Baltimore. Until Bill Belichick arrived, every gambler loved to bet the Billick at home, since he was 32-13-2 ATS as home favorite before this season’s 1-3 against the spread mark. Today’s embarrassing +19 points for Baltimore according to Sportsbook.com speaks to as much about the sorry state of the Ravens as it does about how great New England has been.

It will be interesting to watch how the Patriots attack tonight’s apparent mismatch. Was last week just a speed bump that brings the focus back to attention for New England? Will being on the road, before a large national cable audience, help Tom Brady and the rest of his teammates be back on track to deliver dominating performance or have the oddsmakers number finally figured out a way to balance the books on this team after being buried for some time?

Self proclaimed sports expert Red Wydley and occasion writer at StatFox.com offered this on tonight’s game. “Bill Belichick would be wise to try and build big lead against bumbling Baltimore. As the Ravens proved in a disconcerting loss to Pittsburgh, they can become misanthropes and are not above taking cheap shots when frustrated. On the presumption Baltimore CBs are healthy; they at least have the capability to take away (Randy) Moss. That won’t be enough as New England has more then enough other artillery to dismantle Baltimore. The Patriots ride should continue as they13-4 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. For all of Brian Billick’s fantastic history as a home-team coach, the Ravens are only 7-9-2 ATS as a home dog.”

This Monday’s top system play focuses on the total which is currently 48 points. Here we look to play the Under on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games against opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This system has hit 71.9 percent the last 23 years and is 7-2, 77.7 percent the last five seasons.

Raji

[Raji]

Week 13 of Monday Night Football will have a hard time competing with Thursday’s Packers at Cowboys battle, but it should still be a solid AFC game as Baltimore (4-7) hosts New England (11-0). After having to endure watching the winless Dolphins last Monday, this week we get the privilege of watching the Patriots, who are still unbeaten after 11 games. These teams have faced each other just 3 times since 1992, with New England leading the series 3-0 SU & ATS.

The LazerWager.com oddsmakers feel that New England will easily continue their perfect season by installing them as a 20-point road favorite. The total is set at 48.5 points.

At one point, Baltimore was 4-2 and looking like a playoff caliber squad. However, they’ve lost five straight games since that time. In fact, they come off a 32-14 loss at San Diego last weekend and are now on a 0-5 ATS losing run as well. Not surprisingly, the offense has stalled this year to an average of 16.5 points per game, while their previously stingy defense is now allowing 22.1 points per game!

New England has not only won all of their 11 games outright, but they’re doing it in blowout fashion, covering the spread in nine of those victories. The Patriots are leading the league by scoring an average of 40.2 points per game, and are supported by a defense that holds opponents to just 16.8 points per game.

The Patriots are 21-9 ATS as favorites on Monday Night Football, including a win and cover against the Bengals earlier in the season. On the other hand, Baltimore was destroyed by Pittsburgh, 38-7, in their lone Monday Night Football appearance on November 11. Baltimore is now 18-14 ATS as underdogs on the National telecast. We also find Baltimore at 6-2 ATS as MNF ‘dogs following a double digit loss.

For those players that like to handicap the quarterbacks, they'll be interested in knowing that New England’s Tom Brady is 38-19 ATS when playing away from home, including a 5-1 ATS road record this season. The Ravens will start QB Kyle Boller in place of the injured Steve McNair and have limited wagering history with him as their starter.

Raji