Thursday Night Trends

[Raji]

Packers

Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Packers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Packers are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Packers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Packers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Packers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.
Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games in November.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 road games.


Cowboys

Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
Cowboys are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Cowboys are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Cowboys are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-0-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0-2 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-1-2 in Cowboys last 10 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 14-3-1 in Cowboys last 18 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in November.
Over is 8-2-3 in Cowboys last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.


Head to head

Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Raji

[Raji]

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-6 ½, 51 ½)

Mutual respect society

As a football-mad kid growing up in Packers country, Tony Romo idolized Brett Favre. This week he leads the Dallas Cowboys against Favre and the Packers in what is easily the most important NFC game of the season.

No surprise then that Romo spent most of this week dodging questions about Favre. "I can understand the angle and it's nice and it's fun, but I have to beat the guy this week," he told the Dallas Star-Telegram.

Based on history, Romo has a great chance at doing just that. Favre is 0-8 in Dallas over his long career, and 0-5 in the regular season. The Cowboys eliminated Favre and the Packers in the playoffs in three straight years in 1993-95.

Remarkably, at the age of 38, Favre appears to be in the best shape to achieve that elusive first win. He has clocked 3,356 yards and 22 touchdowns this season, and has thrown for more than 300 yards in seven of his 11 games.

Romo, meanwhile, is matching that pace. He has produced 3,043 yards and 29 TDs, and earned the ultimate praise from Favre this week.

“I think in a nutshell his creativity with his legs is what, when I see him play, reminds me of myself,” the Packers QB said of Romo in the Star Telegram. “It's making something out of nothing. It's probably the same mentality I had.”

This is the first meeting of two teams with a 10-1 (or better) record since 1993. The winner will clinch a playoff berth and is likely to gain home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs.

Worried about Witten

From Terrell Owens at wide receiver to Marion Barber and Julius Jones at running back, the Cowboys’ offense boasts a variety of dangerous weapons. But Green Bay’s defense isn’t forgetting about the threat from tight end Jason Witten.

The fifth-year pro has 750 receiving yards and six touchdowns for the season. At 6-foot-5 and 256 pounds, he has the ability to hold off defenders.

The Packers plan to use his lack of speed against him.

“I think we have a pretty good game plan for that tight end," Nick Barnett, the Packers' middle linebacker, told the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

“Witten's not the fastest guy, you can run with him. He's just smart and knows how to work away from your leverage and where to sit to catch balls. If we execute our fundamentals we should be able to shut him down."

Witten is at his most dangerous when Romo leaves the pocket. Because of his size and extremely safe hands, Witten is his quarterback’s primary target when Romo scrambles or gets into trouble. Barnett has a plan to deal with that too.

"Guys don't know that once the quarterback starts to move around (outside the pocket), you can knock your guy to the ground," he added. “That's what I plan on doing. The quarterback is out of the pocket and your back's to me, I'm going to have to put you on your face. It saves me a lot of energy."

In the last meeting between Dallas and Green Bay – in October 2004 – Witten had 112 yards and a touchdown in a 41-20 Cowboys loss.

Crayton returns

Cowboys receiver Patrick Crayton was back at practice this week and says he expects to play in Thursday night’s showdown with the Packers. He missed last week’s win over the Jets with an ankle injury.

“I’m good to go,” he told reporters ahead of Monday’s practice.

After the two-hour workout, Dallas coach Wade Phillips sounded positive when asked if the receiver would feature this week. "Patrick Crayton practiced today, started out a little slow but looked good as the practice went on," the coach told ESPN.com. "It looks real positive for him as far as playing."

Crayton has 466 yards and five touchdowns on 31 receptions this season. He was the third-string receiver last season, but an injury to Terry Glenn handed him a starting role. The 25-year-old has flourished a starter, taking advantage of defenses that are more worried about Terrell Owens and Jason Witten.

Depending on his fitness, Crayton could also return punts against Green Bay.

"We'll wait to see how healthy he is. But I was encouraged today," Phillips added. "He did catch on punts and stuff."

Packers’ injury concerns

While the Cowboys get a key offensive player back in Crayton, the Packers could be without two defensive stalwarts. Cornerback Charles Woodson and defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila were both limited in practice this week and are questionable for the game.

"They have 50-plus hours until kickoff," Packers coach Mike McCarthy told the Wisconsin State Journal on Tuesday, implying that they will both be game-time decisions. "We're going to give them the full amount to get ready."

Woodson hurt the big toe in his right foot in last week’s win against Detroit, and managed some jogging in Tuesday’s practice. Gbaja-Biamila suffered knee and ankle injuries in the same game and could only do what McCarthy called “a rehab workout” on Tuesday.

Gbaja-Biamila, who has 9.5 sacks this season, said it was “truly a miracle” that he didn’t suffer serious knee damage when Lions right tackle Blaine Saipaia fell awkwardly on his leg.

He added about the knee: “It feels good. It's the coaches' call, but I'm ready to play. I'm looking forward to the game – it's a big game, and I want to be in it.”

If Gbaja-Biamila can’t go, he will be replaced by second-year pro Jason Hunter. And if Woodson were unable to play, cornerback Jarrett Bush would move into the starting lineup, while either Frank Walker or Tramon Williams would play in the nickel defense.

Head to head

The home team has won 10 straight meetings between Dallas and Green Bay. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Packers, covering in five-straight home games against them.

Green Bay is a league-best 9-1-1 ATS this season, while Dallas is 8-3-0. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.


Raji

[Raji]

On paper the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys appear to be an even matchup, but a quick look at the pointspread suggests the books don’t agree.

Most sportbooks opened with Dallas – 6 ½ despite each club sharing the league’s second-best record at 10-1.

Is this a tax bettors must pay to play American’s team?

“Yes, just like any other popular team,” says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “(The Cowboys) draw money every week, you have to think about it. We were thinking –6 ½ or –7 all the way.”

Dallas was picked by numerous analysts in the preseason to win the NFC and Vegas pegged them as a favorite (as well as the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints) to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. So, while the Cowboys are playing above expectations, their success is not a shocker.

The Packers, on the other hand, have taken football followers by surprise.

Last offseason there was an outcry for Favre to save face and retire. Fans feared another mediocre year on a bad team would tarnish his Hall-of-Fame career.

Think Michael Jordan with the Washington Wizards.

But Favre washed away any of those concerns after his club’s 4-0 start. He’s admittedly preparing better for each week’s game (I guess film study does help after all) and he’s bought into coach Mike McCarthy’s system.

“Green Bay has really been on a roll dating back to last season,” Seba says. “I don’t think the Packers are sneaking up on anyone.”

The team won its final four contests in 2006 meaning the squad is actually on an incredible 14-1 run in its last 15 contests. Green Bay backers have been fattening their wallets; the Packers have gone 11-2-1 against the spread over the same time period.

Seba says the Cowboys warrant an edge even with Green Bay playing at such a high level.

“If you look at each side’s schedule, they’re comparable. But Dallas has been a bit more impressive. The power rankings show that and that’s where we start. The Cowboys’ margin of victory sticks out. I think Dallas would be favored by a field goal on a neutral field.”

In Dallas’ 10 victories it has beaten the opposition by an average of 15.8 points. The Cowboys own the league’s second-best offense and seventh-best defense, but are not without weaknesses.

Stopping the pass has been a sore spot in the Big D for some time now. The ‘Boys finished 2006 with the 24th-ranked pass defense and now sit 21st this season.

Quarterbacks Eli Manning, Tom Brady and Jason Campbell all enjoyed their finest performances of the season at the expense of the Cowboys.

The Packers don’t have to alter their game plan to take advantage of Dallas’ weakness. All they have to do is play to their strength – passing the ball.

Imagine the Packers lining up with Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Koren Robinson all split out wide. Do the Cowboys have the defensive backs to match up with the speed of Green Bay’s receiving corps?

A menacing Dallas pass rush could neutralize the advantage. Favre can’t work his magic if he’s being pile-drived into the ground by D-linemen all game.

Ah, but this is where Green Bay surprises. Two years ago, the Packers started an all-rookie offensive line and struggled on the way to a 4-12 record. General manager Ted Thompson brought in veteran tackles Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton who are meshing well with the younger guards.

Last year the O-line allowed the fifth fewest sacks (24) and the unit is on pace to improve the mark this season (14 sacks through 10 games).

Dallas backers will cringe at the results of safety Roy Williams defending a Green Bay wideout in man coverage if Demarcus Ware and Greg Ellis can’t get to Farve.

The battle for first place in the NFC (and likely home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs) kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on the NFL Network.




Raji

[shoogadaddy1970]

wow! Thanks for the great, as usual, info!! Good luck- I will be on the side of the Pack. Burlington is less than an hour from my house and the local news has been all over the small town. Half the town is for the Pack, the other 45% arfor Romo (not necessarily the Cowboys), and the other 5 % are idiots that have to be included for fudge factor!! lol

[nflman]

Originally Posted by Raji

On paper the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys appear to be an even matchup, but a quick look at the pointspread suggests the books don’t agree.

Most sportbooks opened with Dallas – 6 ½ despite each club sharing the league’s second-best record at 10-1.

Is this a tax bettors must pay to play American’s team?

“Yes, just like any other popular team,” says Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “(The Cowboys) draw money every week, you have to think about it. We were thinking –6 ½ or –7 all the way.”

Dallas was picked by numerous analysts in the preseason to win the NFC and Vegas pegged them as a favorite (as well as the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints) to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. So, while the Cowboys are playing above expectations, their success is not a shocker.

The linesmakers hardly have a choice in making the line when you figure that so many bettors would jump on the Dallas money line if they could get it at -160 or -170 etc. and Dallas is figured to win even if it probably will be only by a field goal.