NFL Info

[Raji]

Line Moves:

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: +3 to +1 ½ (line history)

Coming into the season some might have predicted this game would be for the lead in the NFC South. Instead, both clubs have flopped thus far.

“We sent out pick ‘em for this one,” says Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas. “The Saints have been a huge disappointment but they still have that perception they can score like last year.”

The Panthers quarterback situation is again in disarray this week. Vinny Testaverde is listed as questionable because of a wonky back. If the 44-year-old can’t go expect David Carr to start.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants: -10 to -7 (line history)

The line move is a testament to the fast-growing popularity of Adrian Peterson. The number dropped after midweek news that Peterson might return early from his knee injury. There’s a possibility the pointspread may shift back toward the Giants since Peterson is again listed as doubtful.

“I liked it a -9,” Korner says. “We didn’t know what was going on with Peterson when we realised our line but we knew Minnesota has a capable backup (Chester Taylor).”

New York likely won’t be able to catch the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, but a win would go a long way toward securing a wild-card playoff berth for the G-Men.

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots: -17 to -25 (line history)

Donovan McNabb’s injury pushed this pointspread into an historic realm. The public and sharps jumped on the early line and haven’t looked back since.

“The money has been going all that way so far,” Korner says. “We sent out –17 and we thought that’d be enough. It’s crazy when you think about it but the Patriots don’t let up. They’ve created an incredible aura for themselves.”

A.J. Feeley gets the start in McNabb’s place. The seven-year veteran last saw major action in Week 17 last season. He completed 22 of 33 passes but was picked off three times.


Raji

[Raji]

Sunday, November 25th

Denver at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Denver: 4-14 ATS vs. NFC North opponents
Chicago: 14-4 ATS vs. AFC West opponents

Tennessee at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Tennessee: 14-5 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati: 2-10 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Buffalo at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Buffalo: 5-1 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Jacksonville: 15-4 Over off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

Oakland at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 8-25 ATS off 3+ ATS losses
Kansas City: 22-10 Under vs. conference opponents

Houston at Cleveland, 1:00 EST
Houston: 1-8 ATS away off a home game
Cleveland: 11-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points

Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Seattle: 15-5 Over off a home win
St. Louis: 18-5 ATS after allowing 14 points or less

Minnesota at NY Giants, 1:00 EST
Minnesota: 14-3 Under off a straight up win
NY Giants: 21-40 ATS in November

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 EST
New Orleans: 11-3 Over as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Carolina: 0-6 ATS off a road loss

Washington at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Washington: 5-1 ATS off a division loss
Tampa Bay: 1-8 ATS off BB wins

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:05 EST
San Francisco: 1-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
Arizona: 9-1 Over off BB games scoring 25+ points

Baltimore at San Diego, 4:15 EST
Baltimore: 0-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
San Diego: 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

Philadelphia at New England, 8:15 EST NBC
Philadelphia: 8-1 Over as an underdog
New England: 8-1 ATS off a straight up win

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Raji

[Raji]

Statfox Numbers

Just want to make sure I got this straight. Tampa Bay has a two game lead in there division, Houston plays at Cleveland and these two teams have a better combined record then the later game between Baltimore and San Diego. The NFC team that went to the Super Bowl has to win two games just to get back to .500 and they will face a Mike Shanahan team that scores less than 20 points a game. The Philadelphia Eagles have been doing business since 1933 and are 24-point underdogs in many locations and they have won five more games then the Miami Dolphins. Betting the NFL what a blast!


Washington at Tampa Bay (Buccaneers -3, 37.5)

Much like Congress, Washington is doing little to endear itself with the public, having lost two games in a row and covering the spread just once since week five. Joe Gibbs has that Norv Turner look about him, which is not what owner Daniel Snyder paid big bucks for, since he already had seen this movie. The Redskins secondary was brutalized by Dallas last week and they may need a Tazer gun to stop Joey Galloway with 24th ranked pass defense. Gibbs coached teams are 12-4 ATS off two or more straight losses.

Only a select few would have seen Tampa Bay leading the division at this point, with more B-list players on the Bucs than a MTV reality show. John Gruden essentially staked his reputation as coach on Jeff Garcia who looked to have as much chance for success in west Florida as Wesley Snipes claims of a lack of fair trial for tax evasion charges because of racial prejudice in Ocala, FL. Instead Garcia has shined, third-string RB Earnest Graham is dependable and defensive linemen Chris Hovan and Kevin Carter have had internal engines rebuilt to get more mileage. Maybe this year is different, still Tampa Bay is 1-8 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

Keys to the Game – It wouldn’t seem to be favorable position to wholly count on Jeff Garcia to carry a team, yet this is where Tampa Bay is. Garcia is dealing with a tired arm, limiting reps during the week. Washington is 7-2 ATS the week after Dallas war and is finally receiving moderate production out of Jason Campbell and the passing game. Both defenses play capably for stretches, yet are not consistent enough to play for 60 minutes and hold down the opposition. The Buccaneers are 39-12 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points.

StatFox Forecaster – Tampa Bay covers
StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay by 8
StatFox OutPlay Factor – Tampa Bay by 7


Houston at Cleveland (Browns -3.5, 51)

It will only seem like Houston has 11 offensive players on the field compared to Cleveland’s nine defenders. The Browns are a well-deserved last in the NFL in defense and clear of 31st ranked Buffalo by over 30 yards a game. But who’s going to worry about that trifling fact when only New England scores more points in the AFC than Cleveland. Derek Anderson is playing so well he might turn Brady Quinn (remember him?) into the next Aaron Rodgers. The scoring options are so diverse with Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and reliable Joe Jurevicius, running back Jamal Lewis contributions are overlooked. The Brownies are 8-2 ATS this season and 7-1 ATS off two or more consecutive Overs.

Houston psyche is in good shape at 5-5, considering Ron Dayne has had to be more a focal point than the Texans could have imagined with Ahman Green’s aching knees. QG Matt Schaub is healthy again and so is WR Andre Johnson, meaning the big play in back in Houston offense. The Texans defense on the road is like I-45 to Dallas, pretty much wide open once you get out of Houston. The Texans are 28th in points surrendered on the road at 27.2. They are just 1-8 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last two seasons.

Keys to the Game – Houston must be prepared to tangle and bring offensive shoes to compete with Cleveland on the road. The Browns average 31. 8 PPG at home, thanks to reformulated offensive line and QB Derek Anderson having valuable weapons. Cleveland is 7-0 ATS when both teams score 20 or more points this season. The Browns have to take advantage of this contest, since it is the only home game in a five week period. All the original opening day starters should be ready for the Texans against feeble Cleveland defense. Houston will have to do better than only 92 yards rushing a game if they expect to compete.

StatFox Forecaster – Houston covers
StatFox Power Line – Cleveland by 3
StatFox OutPlay Factor – Cleveland by 9


Denver at Chicago (Bears -2, 41.5)

After moving the ball with regularity and now scoring the matching number of points, the 11th ranked Denver offense is up to 18.7 points per game, a far cry from earlier numbers. Since Detroit debacle, the Broncos have scored 61 points in last two games, committing just two turnovers and Jay Cutler is back in form. Mike Shanahan couldn’t ask for a better situation for his team in transition, being tied for first place and learning to have to win at the same time for future rewards. This will be the first two games for Shanahan’s club, who is 27-12 ATS in the first of two roadies.

Rex Grossman is back under center which may be to the chagrin of Bears fans; nonetheless Chicago is a mere one game out of the last wild card position and needs wins to start building momentum. The Bears run defense has been atrocious, having dropped to 26th; allowing 126.3 YPG at 4.5 yards a carry. If Chi-town players really want to return to the postseason, they must elevate efforts starting immediately. Chicago is 8-2 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.
Keys to the Game – Denver is traveling on a short week after Monday night win against Tennessee. This will be the first two games for Shanahan’s club, who is 8-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last three seasons. The Denver defense has been reshuffled in recent weeks and is playing more aggressively, especially in trying to force turnovers. Chicago is attempting to gather second half momentum to nab any playoff berth. This means Grossman and underachieving Cedric Benson have to perform. Chicago is money-making 17-6 ATS against the AFC, including 6-1-1 ATS against Denver.

StatFox Forecaster – Chicago covers
StatFox Power Line – Chicago by 2
StatFox OutPlay Factor – Chicago by 6


Baltimore at San Diego (Chargers -9, 38.5)

This reminds one of choosing between TV shows WRRP in Cincinnati or Three’s Company, both a still pretty good to watch, but are past their prime. Baltimore’s Brian Billick spent the early part of the week whining about field goal that was called “good” despite initial call. Hey Brian, chill, it was your team that had lost two prior division games and your play calling is contributing to all the losses. One would like to believe the Ravens will magically get better playing away from home, but they are 5-14 ATS after playing a game at M&T Bank Stadium.

San Diego has turned into the New York Mets. Talent laden roster that is has the mental toughness of Paris Hilton. In viewing the Dolts, sorry Bolts, it is clear this is a team lacking in discipline and resolve. They are undisciplined, frequently out of position and easily frustrated. The best thing the Chargers have going for them is they are in a terrible division, thus still tied for first place. With bedeviled Baltimore offense scuffling, San Diego is 29-15 ATS vs. poor offensive teams scoring 17 or less points a game.

Keys to the Game – Two underachieving clubs gather in San Diego for what was believed to be a premier contest back in September. The Ravens run is over as higher echelon team for all intents and purposes. Steve McNair is more done than burnt toast, with Kyle Boller taking over and the offensive line is living on history, not results. The defense though brave, is the not the 2001 Super Bowl defense. The Ravens are 6-15 ATS on the road the last three years. Philip Rivers has taken a step backwards as a quarterback, not showing the needed composure when things are more difficult. The Chargers are a dull 10-10 ATS the last five seasons before playing an AFC West contest.
StatFox Forecaster – Baltimore covers
StatFox Power Line – San Diego by 11
StatFox OutPlay Factor – San Diego by 14



Raji