 NFL Best Bet 10/4
Best Bet For Week of 10/2 – 10/3
Jacksonville +3.0 over New Orleans
There is much hoopla about how the Saints “are marching back again” having reeled off 3 consecutive wins after dropping their first four. But before you get all excited about the Saints comeback, let’s look at who those three wins were against. The total wins of the 3 teams they beat is 7, that’s an average of 2.33 wins per team on the season. I don’t think I would get all excited just yet. The Jag’s lose starting QB Garrard, however, last week with backup Gray at QB, they ran the ball 44 times against Tampa and so far this season they have averaged 146.3 rushing yards per game with a 4.5 yards per rush average. The loss of a starting QB is somewhat diminished when you can run the ball like that. New Orleans has struggled with the run game with McCallister out for the season and Bush not being able to hit the 100 yard mark this season, matter of fact the Saints haven’t reached 100 yards rushing as a team all season.
With Gray filling in at QB, the Saints will load up the front probably with a 8 man in the box scheme and this will bode very well for RB Jones-Drew. With his quickness he can hit the perimeter quickly which might open of some big play opportunities for the Jag’s. The short passing game in the flat should open up for Gray also. The Sainsts are ranked 25th in the league in overall pass defense which should allow the Jag’s to have some success going to the air. On defense the Jag’s should be able to cool down Brees as the defensive line of the Jags has a sack ranking of 7th in the league, while the Saints rank #1 in sacks allowed.
Jacksonville is a physically and mentally tough football team and they showed that with a huge win in Tampa Bay last week.
Jacksonville is playing well on the road this year having covered the spread in all three of their road games including upsets wins over Denver and Tampa Bay. The Saints don’t fare well in the role of home favorite, they are only 6-15 over the past 4 years.
The Jaguars have proven they can win without getting great QB play because the defense is stout and they can run the football. The Saints have been better on the defensive side of the ball, but this Jags team has three backs that can pound the rock. Despite some concerns about the offense, the Jags are the better football team. Look for the Jags to win this game straight up. At +1.65 on the money, this might be a good bet. I might also look at the under 40 in this game. With the Jag’s obviously being able to run the ball and control the clock, coupled with the Jag’s defensive front to contain Brees, this might very well be a low scoring game….hmmm …how about a Monely Line Parly with the under…??
Diamond Line: Jacksonville –1.45 over New Orleans
College Best Bet:
Boston College -6.5 over Florida State | 
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