Opening Week Line

[Raji]

The NFL game of the year goes Sunday and it’s not Houston Texans-Oakland Raiders.


The New England Patriots opened as 4-point road favorites against Indianapolis. The Patriots were quickly bet up to -4 ½. The line could climb higher.


It’s nothing against Indianapolis. The Colts have won all their games. They have covered each of their three home games, winning by an average margin of 22 points. They are 9-2 against the spread during their past 11 matchups versus teams with a winning record.


The Patriots are just on another planet.


“It’s virtually unheard of that an undefeated defending Super Bowl champion is getting more than a field goal at home,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.


Based on a pure power-rating number, Seba made the line New England -3. His suggestion was that bookmakers open the game Patriots -4 ½. LVSC sent out Patriots -5 ½.


“If you’re going to error then error on the high side with the Patriots,” Seba said. “The Colts are playing well. But until this New England train slows down, you have to keep it (the number) high.”


Maybe Patriots -5 ½ is closer to the right number. Professional bettors are the ones playing the opening Sunday night numbers and they laid 4 points. The public figures to be on the Patriots, too.


It’s downright scary that New England is outscoring its foes by an average of 25 points and that Tom Brady has a 30-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while leading the NFL in passing. Not only have the Patriots covered all of their games, but in six of eight they have beaten the spread by 13 or more points.


“Six is the key number here,” Seba said. “I wouldn’t want to lay six on the road against the Colts.”


Until proven otherwise, though, the Patriots are a pointspread covering machine no matter how daunting the line might look.


It certainly doesn’t hurt New England’s case that Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour finally appears healthy. The Colts are banged-up at linebacker. Marvin Harrison also didn’t play in their last game.


While nothing on the Week 9 card can compare to New England-Indianapolis, there’s a good Sunday night matchup between Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys were 3-point road favorites on Monday at higher juice of $1.15-$1.25 depending on the sportsbook.


Could this signal a possible move to 3 ½?


“If it goes to 3 ½ then the Eagles are an automatic pick,” Seba said. “The Eagles are playing good defense and at home in a must-win situation with their whole season depending on this game. Unlike the Bengals, (a team that was) in a must-win situation this past Sunday and didn’t win, I think the Eagles have heart.


“There’s definitely value on the Eagles if it goes to 3 ½.”


Speaking of Cincinnati, the Bengals have sunk so low that they opened as underdogs to Buffalo.


“It’s amazing how far Cincinnati has dropped,” Seba said. “Before the season some thought of the Bengals as a Super Bowl team.”


If it weren’t for two last-second losses on final-play field goals, the Bills would be 5-2 instead of 3-4. Buffalo has covered in all four of its home games. But while feisty, the Bills are far from being a good team.


Buffalo has been outscored by 38 points, outgained by 947 yards and has 46 fewer first downs than its opponents. The Bills ranked 31st in offense and 30th in defense prior to the Green Bay-Denver Monday matchup.


Like the Bengals, the 49ers have been another huge disappointment. Those predicting that San Francisco would capture the NFC West Division aren’t looking very good with the 49ers riding a five-game losing streak.


Mike Nolan is proving to be a better dresser than a head coach. Frank Gore (ankle) and Alex Smith (shoulder) are dealing with injuries. So it’s no surprise Atlanta opened a field goal favorite at home versus the 49ers.


“It tells you how bad San Francisco is,” Seba said. “I made the line (Falcons minus) 2 ½. I couldn’t make Atlanta three at home with (Joey) Harrington. I could have made it three with (Byron) Leftwich.”

Raji