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Old 10-28-2007, 01:33 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Schedule Angles

Last week I touched upon running the football in the NFL and once again Week Seven proved profitable to everyone that put in the 30 minutes during the week to note which teams had a 30+ yard rushing advantage on offense and/or defense heading into their Sunday matchups.

This week I'm going to bring to your attention a scheduling situation that is quite rare in professional pigskin.

Most teams will never play more than two consecutive games at home or on the road, but there are a few occasions during the course of a season where teams are asked to play back-to-back-to-back home or road games. These sets of triplet games are often interrupted by the bye week.

I thought this would be an ideal opportunity to share with you some pertinent angles that will help you in your handicapping after Buffalo became the first team this season (Week 7) to play host for a third consecutive game.

I wasn't at all surprised to see the Bills win outright by five as a field goal underdog. Not only was Buffalo a home underdog, but they were highlighted in a number of trends that supported playing the home team under certain parameters in their third consecutive home game.

It's not just the home team that you should look at a possible play 'on' or 'against.’ Fading road teams has proved just as profitable in their third consecutive contest away from home.

THIRD CONSECUTIVE HOME GAME

As a dog or favorite of -3.5 or less points vs. opponent off back to back wins, teams in their third consecutive home game are 32-17 ATS since 1980 (Buffalo qualified). If home team is .500 or better on the season, they improve to 18-5 ATS.

NFL teams are 8-2-1 ATS since 2001 in their third straight home game with the line at 4 or less points. (Buffalo qualified)

NFL teams are 4-1 ATS in their third straight home game vs. an opponent off a double digit SU loss.

NFL teams in their third consecutive home game are 33-14 ATS provided they enter off a straight up loss and own a won/loss percentage of .375 or better.

Home favorites of -4 points or more off a win and playing in their third consecutive home game vs. an opponent off back to back losses are 5-17 ATS.

THIRD CONSECUTIVE ROAD GAME

Teams playing in their third straight road game are 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS as dogs of +3 points when playing off a SU underdog win, including 1-10 SU and 1-10 ATS if the total of the game is lined at 37 points or less.

Any team that's playing its third consecutive road game vs. a division foe with a .500 (or better) record, and both teams are off a straight-up win, are 2-10 ATS.

Teams off a win and playing their third straight road game are 2-14 ATS, if their win percentage is between .666 and .900, and they're not favored by a field goal or more.

Teams playing their third straight road game and are off a SU/ATS win and the SU win was by 5 points or more vs. a winning foe are 2-19 SU and 3-18 ATS since 1994.

Teams on the road for the third consecutive game and off a SU and ATS win are 29-57 ATS including 12-29 ATS in this set coming off a division game. With those two parameters applied and the guest priced as an underdog of +3 or more last game, this trend crashes to 3-15 ATS and is currently on a 1-12 SU and 1-12 ATS run since 1990.

Teams with a winning record playing their third consecutive road game are 35-56 ATS. If the weary traveler is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .375 or better, this angle slides to 20-44 ATS.

Remaining teams that may qualify for any of the above trends/angles are;

10/29 DENVER hosts Green Bay

11/11 MIAMI hosts Buffalo
11/11 JACKSONVILLE @ Tennessee
11/11 TENNESSEE hosts Jacksonville

11/18 NY JETS hosts Pittsburgh

11/29 DALLAS hosts Green Bay

12/23 NEW ENGLAND hosts Miami
12/23 SAN FRANCISCO hosts Tampa Bay


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Old 10-28-2007, 01:34 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Bucs Vs Jags

With the Miami Dolphins dead in the water, either Jacksonville or Tampa Bay must step up as the new face of Florida football. Both were well on their way in September, but have each stumbled somewhat here in October. That includes respective losses last week with the Bucs falling to the Lions and the Jags getting outclassed by the Colts on Monday Night. However, the Jags loss hurt more - literally. In that 29-7 loss, QB David Garrard left with a sprained ankle. He is not expected to play here. That and homefield advantage combine to make Tampa a 3.5-point choice on the betting line. The total is currently at a very low 32 points.

If Garrard was still healthy, then this game would have pitted the only two starting QB's in the league to have not thrown an interception against one another. Bucs QB Jeff Garcia has yet to throw one to the other team this season.

Instead, the Jaguars likely will have to go with untested fourth-year quarterback Quinn Gray, who was dreadful Monday night. Gray finished 9-of-24 for just 56 yards and two interceptions. He had attempted just 21 passes in his first three seasons.

The prognosis on RB Maurice Jones-Drew (sprained kneee) is less definitive. He rushed for 52 yards on 13 carries and scored Jacksonville's only touchdown, which he set up with a 65-yard kick return.

While he has yet to throw an INT this season, a pair of costly miscues by Garcia hurt the Buccaneers in last week's 23-16 loss to Detroit. Garcia had not committed a turnover in his previous five games, but a fumbled snap at the Lions 1-yard line snuffed out one drive and a bobbled handoff set up Detroit's first touchdown. Those mistakes tarnished an otherwise superb effort by Garcia, who tied a team record with 18 consecutive completions and finished 37-of-45 for 316 yards and two touchdowns.

The injury woes continue to pile up for Tampa Bay. Already missing three running backs, Wide Receiver Mark Clayton suffered an ankle injury that is expected to sideline him for two weeks. One positive for the Bucs was the performance of running back Earnest Graham, who rushed for 92 yards on 19 carries and added 99 yards receiving on 13 receptions.

While these teams regularly meet during the preseason, they don't play too often during the regular year. When they do, it's been all Jacksonville, who has covered all three meetings.

However, the Jags are just 1-7-1 ATS the week after playing on MNF. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is 5-1 SU/ATS when hosting AFC opposition.


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