MNF reality check.

[UMDBookingRook]

i only played one game yesterday (GB/CHI Over 41.5 Winner), this weekend was gross for NFL, glad i stayed away. Here's tonights analysis though, not sure if I'm playing yet. I keep wavering back and forth :

Weather:
The conditions for this game are much like what Dallas plays in at home. The temp will be very Dallas like (70's by kickoff) with rain being less than likely a factor (30% chance doesn't mean monsoon and under fellas). Turf playing surface. The only homefield advantage the bills have is their fans, who will probably turn against them after they get down 17-0 by the 2:00 mark of the 2nd quarter.

Statistics:
Statistically this game screams play Dallas to cover. Dallas is +7 in the turnover category while Buffalo is scratch at 0. Buffalo is dismal in every statistical category. 102.5 rush yards per game, 123.5 pass yards per game on offense for an average of 10.3 pts per game. On the defensive side they are giving up 148.0 rush yards and 282.3 pass yards a game while on average allowing 23.3 pts a game.

Dallas' stats couldn't be better. 152.5 rush yards and 288.3 pass yards per game with an average of 37.8 points per contest. Same story on defense, only giving up 80.5 rush yards and 219.0 pass yards (to teams who have to pass the entire 2nd half) for 18.0 pts a game.

Trends:
Dallas is 4-0 ATS (this season) and 3-1 (over/under)
Dallas is 13-7 ATS on turf (past 3 seasons)
Dallas is 1-3 ATS on Monday night (past 3 seasons)
Dallas is 4-14 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts (since 93)

Buffalo is 1-3 ATS (this season) and 1-3 (over/under)
Buffalo has absolutely no trends to support a play on them tonight

Final Consideratons:
Again, everything points to Dallas here. The jinx of all jinx though says bills..... nearly all the money is on Dallas (the spread, moneyline, and over). Vegas has a very good weekend if the Bills and the Under hit. The Bills defense is severely decimated, not something you want facing one of the top offenses in the NFL who can run and pass the ball on their own terms. Offensively, the bills are playing a qb who is making only his 2nd start against an aggressive, blitz happy defense. This game has already been played, look at the result of the Week 3's game @ New England (38-7 NE). Week 4 against the Jets (THE JETS!!) was the only time the Bills threw for more than 125 yards. It doesn't take a Haaaaaaavard grad student to notice that the Dallas D is a little bit better than the Jets. Big D also gets Terrence Newman and Greg Allis back at CB and ILB respectively which only helps.

How the game will go:
Barring crazy fumbles or a Romo misque, the Cowboys will jump out to a fast 14-20 point unanswered lead. The second half will be boring, Dallas pounding away with it's Barber/Jones 1-2 punch to control the clock and limit any potential momentum. That being said, I fully expect Wade Phillips on what would be obvious run situations (3rd and 2 up 24 pts) to play action and go downfield to Owens or Crayton. Buffalo will be lucky to score 14 in this matchup.

The Play:
By playing this game you are basically pitting Statistics vs. Vegas. Every stat says Dallas easy and thus the 80%+ money on Dallas' side. By taking the Bills you are simply GAMBLING that the NFL is completely corrupt and Vegas does have control on games.

Dallas +10.5
Under 46

[BangTheBook]

Not sure I agree with your last statement that if the you take the Bills you are gambling that the NFL is completely corrupted.

On any given day a team can win or lose, look at USC this weekend. The best teams can lose at any time, thats why no one goes undefeated, sports betting isnt an easy way to make money etc...

Dallas has a huge game next week at Pats. Looking ahead hurts. With that the Bills can backdoor this play and maybe keep it close enough to win it.

If games like this were a gimme Vegas would not be in business but all they need to have happen is if Dallas is -600ml than 1 out of 6 times they are going to lose outright.

[UMDBookingRook]

yeah my Fixing speculation is a bit insane, but if it looks like a dog, acts like a dog, smells like a dog, it's probably a dog.

I hear you though bang. It just seems too easy. EVERYTHING says big D. EVERYTHING!! You are right about Vegas though, they wouldnt' be in business if they weren't the best. That being said, Vegas is a little better at getting the whole story than you or I. you are a fool to say inside trading doesn't occur in the stock market, Money changes the dynamic on lots of things. what makes a professional sports individual any more righteous? i'm just playing conspiracy advocate here. The best result for Vegas tonight is obviously Bills, Boys ML, Under. (Bills +10.5 bets cover the Boys ML wins, Over money is all profit).

[Joey Spoons]

Excellent stuff and a great read, glad you posted it. I do have to disagree with your comment on the trends.

Buffalo has absolutely no trends to support a play on them tonight

Here are just a fewallas is 2-12 ATS off a win by 28+ points and Buffalo is 24-7 ATS off a win by 3 points or less. The Bills are 9-3 ATS as home dogs in non conference play

Trends are a funny animal though because no matter what side you support you can always find trends for that play. I try to use some that have some substance.

Spoons

[UMDBookingRook]

Trends are pointless selling points for guys you pay to make your picks. You really feel that a team 10 years ago that had a different staff and personal really matters for the game being played now?? Is there some magical occurrence? I dont think so. but hey, the Lions hadn't won in Washington since like 1939 or some weird shit, and that trend continued yesterday. I am a man of science and medicine. Translation, stats and facts.

[shoogadaddy1970]

public trends say that cowboys and over. Private trend says Buffalo and the under!! that is if you wanna win money!!!!!!!! ps what ever happened to Monica Lewinski, I don't care how fat she is!! lol

[BangTheBook]

UMD Great thread! this is exactly the discussion we need for games like this.

IMO Trends are good within the last 5yrs. You cant go soley on it but if you factor in trends it makes a good play better etc.

[UMDBookingRook]

Originally Posted by UMDBookingRook

Barring crazy fumbles or a Romo misque

which accounted for 21 of the 24 points buffalo scored. analyzed this game perfectly. can't predict turnovers and 103 yard kick returns. crazy game though. Take the Pats at -3.5 early.... Pats are gonna smoke Dallas.