NFL Dogs

[Raji]

Every April, with the Super Bowl barely in the rear view mirror and a full five months before Week 1, bettors tear into the NFL’s regular season schedule as if it was the lone gargantuan gift underneath the Christmas tree.

It might as well be Christmas for football bettors. These guys look way ahead to check off wins and losses and drool over win total futures bets. They work on strength of schedule numbers to look for wagering opportunities and try to get a jump on their first-round fantasy picks. They spend hours agonizing over mock entry drafts.

Every year it’s the same thing and every year I say it’s a huge waste of time.

Case in point: if I told you last April that the Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints would have just four wins between them heading into Week 5, you would have told me to find a new job. Thing is, that’s where we stand right now and to make matters worse, those four teams have combined to cover precisely one pointspread to date.

That’s like spending a month at a Cuban all-exclusive with Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Britney Spears and Pamela Anderson only to come away with a single semi-naughty photo to show for it.

One. Just one lone cover from four of last year’s most dominant teams.

It’s pretty hard to know how to handle these teams after this kind of a start. On one hand, nothing seems radically different about the rosters, apart from additions that were actually supposed to help these clubs, so you’d think they’re only a win or two away from turning it around.

But on the other hand, you have to consider that some of the coaching personnel changes weren’t all they were cracked up to be (read: Norv Turner currently in not-so-sunny San Diego). Plus you have injuries and big quarterback issues (hello, Chicago) and no major hurricanes yet that a team (i.e. the say-it-ain’t-so Saints) could rally around, eliminating one of the most intangible edges we’ve seen in years.

It’s a lot to wrap your head around and the more you think about it and analyze the numbers, stats and trends, the more confusing it becomes. So after all three of my underdog picks not only covered but won straight up last week, I’m keeping it simple.

I’m betting on talent and pedigree. I’m betting at least a couple of the struggling clubs getting points this week wake up before it’s too late.

Seattle at Pittsburgh – Seahawks +5 ½

Usually the Seahawks go as running back Shaun Alexander goes, but last week was different.

The Seahawks pounded the 49ers in almost every aspect of the game even though they only got 77 yards on the ground from Alexander. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch got themselves on the same page and Julian Peterson was rushing the quarterback like a man possessed.

When Seattle can win without a dominating Alexander, it’s a good thing for Seahawks bettors.

San Diego at Denver – Chargers +1 ½

Swapping Marty Schottenheimer for Norv Turner in the offseason has left the Chargers with one heck of a hangover. I never thought this was a sensible move in the first place and while a feeling-out process could be expected with the new coach, this team is just too talented to let a season slip away so early.

Last week’s loss to Kansas City had some positive points, like LaDainian Tomlinson finally breaking out for 132 yards and a major. But he could have racked up a lot more if San Diego stuck with the run in the second half after going into the break up 16-6.

Instead, with the Chiefs on their heels, the Chargers had Philip Rivers recklessly pitching the ball all over the field. By the end of it, San Diego fans were begging for last season’s bench boss with “MAR-TY! MAR-TY!” chants accompanying every incompletion.

Norv Turner’s no dummy; he’ll get the hint. There’s no way the Chargers should be shown up by the Chiefs and they’ll take it out on Denver, a club that’s not even as good as its mediocre 2-2 record suggests – the Broncos still haven’t covered a spread this season.

Chicago at Green Bay - Bears +3

A few years ago, Lovie Smith strolled into Halas Hall as Chicago’s new head coach, entrusted to clean up Dick Jauron’s mess. Where’d he start? With the hated Green Bay Packers.

In his first official statement as Bears boss, Smith said the team’s first goal would be to beat the Cheeseheads and then delivered a 21-10 statement win over the Pack at Lambeau Field as big 9-point underdogs in Week 2.

Three years later, everything’s come full-circle for Smith’s Bears. Now they have to go on the road and upset an upstart Packers club to keep their season alive.

It’s time to put up or shut up for the Bears. No more quarterback soap operas, no more whining about injuries, no more excuses. They need to win or else they’re pretty much back where they were three years ago when Smith first made beating the Packers his top priority.

Last week’s record: 3-0
Season record: 7-6


Raji