NFL Line Moves

[Raji]

Teams start out seasons 2-0 all of the time but that third consecutive win to start a year seems to be the time when bandwagons fill up. Expect the five remaining undefeated teams to get a lot of action this weekend, with two teams in particular seeing significant line movement. This improved public perception, combined with influential injuries, will be the driving force behind the major line movements in the NFL.


Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Open: Green Bay -2


Green Bay’s first two wins of the season were chalked up by many as insignificant as they came against teams that were a combined 0-4. The public is taking the undefeated Packers a lot more seriously following their big win over San Diego. Green Bay opened as 3-point favorites but that line could climb as the week progresses.


The Packers offense and defense are playing collectively as strong as they have in years. Minnesota, meanwhile, boasts a defense that is among the best in the NFL. But a dismal quarterback situation is keeping the Vikings offense from doing its part.


Brett Favre struggled early in his career at Minnesota but he seems to have solved the riddle that is the Metrodome. Favre and the Pack have gone 3-1 in their last four trips to the Dome but that doesn’t mean this game will be easy. NFC North battles are more physical than in any other division so this game will be hotly contested.


Green Bay’s hot start to the season, combined with Minnesota’s extremely one-dimensional offense, will push this line higher. If you’re siding with the Packers, take this line as early as possible. If you think the Vikings are going to give Green Bay its first loss, hold off as this line continues to rise.


St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Open: Dallas -11


This contest falls into many of the same line-climbing factors that the Minnesota-Green Bay game fell into. Dallas, long considered “America’s Team,” again has the public on its side after starting the season 3-0. The Cowboys, like the Packers, picked up two cupcake wins to start the season before solidifying itself as a legit contender with a road win in Chicago.


St. Louis, like Minnesota, has all kinds of problems on the offensive side of the ball. The Rams are 29th in the NFL with fewer than 11 points per game and will now be without All-Pro running back Steven Jackson. Marc Bulger hasn’t lived up to the big contract he received in the offseason and he’ll have an even harder task on his hands without a legitimate running threat at his disposal. Jackson’s absence will have a lot of influence on how bettors will wager and that, in turn, will affect the line movement.


None of Dallas’ first three opponents have come remotely close to shutting down the Cowboys offense and St. Louis probably won’t fare much better. Look for “America’s Team” to live up to its moniker.


New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Open: New York -3


J.P. Losman’s status could have just as much impact on the line movement in this game as Steven Jackson’s injury does in the fantasy football world. Losman was far from setting the world on fire, but his absence forces Buffalo to start rookie Trent Edwards under center. The Bills offense was struggling with Losman in the lineup. It could reach epic lows with him out.


The Buffalo injuries don’t end with Losman, though. Linebackers Paul Posluszny and Keith Ellison and safety Coy Wire are out, leaving a weak Bills defense even weaker. The Jets scored 31 points last week and are now going up against a Buffalo defense that's allowed 32 points per contest the last two weeks.


Buffalo’s bevy of injuries puts the team at a distinct disadvantage. The line will reflect this disadvantage as it will gradually rise in favor of the Jets. If you like New York, take it early. If you’re siding with the Bills, wait until closer to kickoff to place your bet.

Raji